“Green energy” will not soon become effective. Academician Kapitsa: Green “energy” is an absolute EVIL Green electricity
Iranian energy project developer Amin has signed an agreement with a Norwegian company specializing in the production of solar modules. The partners plan to build a 2 GW solar power plant in Iran. The contract is valued at $2.9 billion.
Earlier, Tesla CEO Elon Musk said that the active development of renewable energy sources can guarantee the development of civilization, otherwise humanity risks returning to the “dark ages.”
At the same time, Musk is on the board of directors of SolarCity, a company specializing in the production of solar panels. The company occupies about 40% of the US market for solar power generation installations.
Musk is known as the most active lobbyist for the use of alternative energy sources. For example, Tesla, led by him, signed a contract in 2017 to build a 100-megawatt battery system in Australia.
- Elon Musk
- Reuters
World experience
The introduction of renewable energy sources (RES) is gaining popularity around the world. Australia is one of the world leaders in the installation of photovoltaic power plants, whose share of the Australian electricity sector exceeds 3%. Every year the country increases its total solar generation capacity by approximately 1 GW.
In terms of this indicator, Australia is ahead of the UK, where the total number of solar power plants reaches 12 GW, which is twice as high as in Australia.
The undisputed leader in the renewable energy sector is China, which together with Taiwan produces almost 60% of all solar panels in the world.
According to calculations by the International Energy Agency (IEA), the capacity of generating plants built in China in 2016 alone amounted to 34 GW. However, this is only 1% of the electricity consumed in China, most of which is generated from coal - the country owes much of its difficult environmental situation to coal thermal power plants.
The United States also followed the path of transferring energy to renewable sources. But the Donald Trump administration rescinded Barack Obama's Clean Power Plan.
- Solar panels created by Tesla, San Juan Children's Hospital, Puerto Rico
- Reuters
In 2014, RE100 was founded as part of Climate Week in New York, an umbrella organization for companies transitioning to renewable energy. IKEA, Apple, BMW, Google, Carlsberg Group, etc. joined RE100. The list of RE100 members is constantly growing. For example, at the end of October, one of the world's largest manufacturers of wind generators, the Danish company Vestas Wind Systems, joined the organization.
In general, according to the IEA, the share of renewable energy sources in global electricity production in 2015 was about 24%.
Ecology is in question
However, according to experts, not all renewable energy sources are equally environmentally friendly. Some can cause environmental damage. In particular, we are talking about hydroelectric power plants (HPP). According to researchers from Australia and China, the total area of land flooded as a result of the commissioning of hydroelectric power plants is 340 thousand square meters. km, which is slightly less than the area of Germany. Scientists provide relevant information in the publication Trends in Ecology & Evolution.
Due to hydroelectric power stations, many floodplain ecosystems were destroyed, which led to a decrease in species diversity. However, in recent years, hydropower has been losing its leadership to new types of generation: solar and wind energy. According to experts, their share of generation will be equal to the share of hydroelectric power plants by 2030.
Another popular topic among the environmental community is the use of biofuels. For example, from the point of view of the International Energy Agency, bioenergy has the potential to occupy about 20% of the primary energy market by the middle of the 21st century.
However, the active introduction of biofuels made from wood and agricultural crops can lead to unpleasant consequences. A multiple increase in the load on farmland can lead to a reduction in food production. According to the calculations of American researchers, even today the expansion of “fuel” plantings has caused an increase in prices for food raw materials in the United States. In addition, excessive use of biofuels can lead to deforestation.
In 2012, the European Commission came to the conclusion that the transfer of land to fuel plantations should be limited, and producers of fuel from food crops should not benefit from state support.
An EU study last year found that palm oil or soybean oil, from which energy is extracted, emits more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than any fossil fuel.
“The EU's mandated cheap food-based biofuels, particularly vegetable oils such as rapeseed, sunflower and palm, are simply a terrible idea,” said Jos Dings, director of the research organization Transport & Environment.
According to experts, the advantages of electric vehicles from both economic and environmental points of view are also ambiguous. At the same time, in a number of countries there are government support measures for this type of transport.
- Tesla Model 3 electric car
- Reuters
For example, in Estonia, the buyer of an electric car can count on compensation for 50% of the cost of the car; in Portugal, a subsidy of 5,000 euros is paid for the purchase of an electric car. Russia is also thinking about introducing similar subsidies.
Without government support, such cars are not in demand: after the Hong Kong authorities canceled tax breaks for buyers of Tesla electric cars, sales of these cars fell to zero. However, the benefits of electric cars for the environment are not yet obvious.
“Electric cars are indeed a very environmentally friendly form of transport, but in order to connect to the electrical network and power the battery, the accumulator, you need to generate this electricity, and for this you need a primary source. Today, the number one primary source in the world is not even oil, but coal,” noted Russian President Vladimir Putin, speaking at the International Forum on Energy Efficiency and Energy Development “Russian Energy Week” in early October.
Echo of Fukushima
The topic of renewable energy sources gained particular popularity after 2011. After the accident at the Fukushima-1 nuclear power plant, demands to abandon the use of nuclear energy are becoming increasingly louder.
- Reactor No. 3 of the Fukushima-1 NPP
- Self Defense Force Nuclear Biological Chemical Weapon Defense Unit / Reuters
To date, the country that has completely stopped nuclear power plants is Italy; in the future, Belgium, Spain and Switzerland plan to follow Rome’s example. In Germany, the last nuclear power plant is planned to be switched off by 2022. In total, 17 nuclear power plants operated in Germany, which produced about a quarter of all electricity consumed in the country.
According to many experts, the panic surrounding nuclear energy is greatly exaggerated.
“If you subtract the risk of an accident, then nuclear energy does not pose any particular risks to the environment,” said Alexander Frolov, Deputy Director General of the Institute of National Energy, in an interview with RT.
Initially, the EU leadership planned to compensate for the curtailment of nuclear energy through gas generation.
“We need more gas. After Berlin’s decision, gas will become the driver of growth,” said European Commissioner for Energy Günter Oettinger in 2011.
On average, burning natural gas emits half as much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere as burning other types of fossil hydrocarbons.
Privileged position
However, the growth of gas generation was hampered by the high rate of commissioning of alternative energy capacities. In countries that are most actively developing renewable energy sources, by 2014 the load on gas thermal power plants had fallen. According to the consulting company Capgemini, about 110 GW of gas capacity did not justify the investment and were on the verge of bankruptcy. Approximately 60% of European thermal power plants running on natural gas find themselves in a difficult situation.
According to a number of experts, the cause of the crisis in traditional energy was not the high competitiveness of renewable energy sources, but the privileges enjoyed by electricity producers using renewable sources. “Green” electricity is purchased by the authorities at inflated tariffs on a priority basis.
According to Frolov, this policy leads to an imbalance in the energy sector.
“The sharp increase in the introduction of renewable energy has made gas thermal power plants unprofitable - they began to close,” the expert noted. — Meanwhile, wind and solar generation have a serious drawback: dependence on weather conditions. For example, at the beginning of this year, Germany experienced cloudy and windless weather for about nine days. Renewable energy generation fell by 90%. This came as a shock to local consumers. The existing base on which solar and wind power plants operate does not guarantee an uninterrupted supply of electricity. Dependence on the forces of nature is a true return to the dark ages.”
- Coal power plant Lippendorf, Saxony, Germany
- globallookpress.com
- Michael Nitzschke/imagebroker
Against the backdrop of the closure of gas thermal power plants in Europe, the dirtiest generation of electricity - coal - is growing, Frolov believes.
For example, in Germany it is planned to build two dozen coal-fired thermal power plants. A paradoxical situation has developed in the country: along with the growth of environmentally friendly energy production, the most environmentally dangerous energy sector is also increasing, the expert noted.
“Technology is becoming cheaper and more accessible”
In the last two years, the balance in the European energy market has begun to improve: several gas-fired power plants were launched in Germany, and gas consumption in the European Union began to grow. At the end of 2016, the use of natural gas in the European Union increased by 6% compared to 2015.
According to Tatyana Lanshina, a researcher at the Center for Economic Modeling of Energy and Ecology at RANEPA, the development of alternative energy does not carry any risks.
“While a rapid transition to renewable energy is not possible, those countries that have been working on it for a long time have made great strides. For example, in Denmark about half of all electricity is generated from renewable energy sources, in Germany - about a third,” the expert noted in an interview with RT. “These countries have been working on this for decades, and other countries can also gradually switch to renewable energy sources. These technologies are becoming cheaper and more accessible. As for subsidies, all energy sectors enjoy government support, including traditional ones.”
True professionals will have to combine knowledge in the fields of energy, meteorology and mathematics
For several years now, different countries around the world have been conducting an unofficial competition: who can provide their consumers with energy from renewable sources (RES) for the longest time. The first, back in 2016, was Scotland - on one very windy August day, all the country's wind turbines produced 106% of electricity, that is, 6% more than was required for consumption. In May 2018, “green” stations in Germany provided the entire country’s energy system with “clean” electricity for several hours.
However, China distinguished itself the most, where in 2017, from June 17 to 23, the entire province of Qinghai - population and industry - used exclusively water, solar and wind energy. The largest volume - 72% - was provided by hydroelectric power stations, the rest - by solar and wind stations. It was the work of renewable energy sources that made it possible to avoid burning more than 500,000 tons of coal.
Global warming is changing the climate of our planet right before our eyes; natural disasters are already occurring in regions where they have never been heard of. The report of UN experts, which was released on November 8, 2017 in the South Korean city of Incheon, states that humanity must at all costs keep global warming at 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the pre-industrial era. Now the average annual temperature has already risen by 1 degree Celsius.
Among the priority measures, UN experts propose bringing CO2 emissions, which create the greenhouse effect in the atmosphere, to zero by 2050. And one of the steps on this path is the abandonment of energy based on fossil fuels. That is why Mind chose “green” energy as one of the most promising industries of the next decade and will talk about it as part of a special project.
How the world's alternative energy industry is developing
There are countries in the world that make maximum use of renewable energy sources simply because they are the most affordable. For example, Iceland is located on hot underground geysers. The largest of them have steam power plants, and excess hot water is released into pipes under the roads, which are thus heated in winter. Norway's energy balance consists of almost 80% hydroelectric power. There are many mountain rivers in the country. And technologies for using water have been known to mankind for several thousand years.
Other countries are not so lucky with natural energy sources, so they are forced to build solar and wind power plants. At the beginning of 2018, the global capacity of “green” energy (solar and wind) exceeded 1 TW, or more than 1000 GW of electricity - this is as much as all coal-fired thermal power plants in China or the entire generation of the United States produce.
Every year, the growth rate of construction of solar panels and wind turbines is growing by 20-30%. In 2017 alone, 51 GW of green generation capacity was built worldwide. This is almost equal to the capacity of the entire generation of Ukraine - 55 GW. Today, the ratio of global electricity generation between wind and solar power plants is 54% to 46%, respectively. And by 2020, this ratio will change in favor of solar panels.
In 2017, $333.5 billion was spent on the development of “green” generation. $160.8 billion was allocated to solar stations, $107.2 billion to wind parks, another $48.8 billion to energy efficient equipment, battery systems, electric vehicles and Smart Grid technologies. Such data was published by Bloomberg New Energy Finance.
It took the world 40 years and $2.3 trillion to reach 1 TW of electricity from green sources. Humanity will receive the second terrawatt of green energy in five years and for only $1.23 trillion, Bloomberg believes.
At what pace are countries ready to implement green energy?
The most consistent supporter of green generation is Germany, which has stated that by 2050 it is ready to switch to 80% renewable energy sources. Other countries in Europe and the United States talk about much more modest indicators: by 2040 they are ready to increase the constant share of alternative sources in their overall energy balance to 40%.
Although these countries already have serious achievements. Thus, Denmark and Great Britain several times reached the target of generating more than 30% of electricity from their wind farms. And in June 2017, the United States generated 10% of its total electricity at green generation stations.
Ukraine has not yet spoken about its responsibilities for “green” generation for 2040-2050. At the same time, our promise to reach the level of 11% renewable energy by 2020 seems to be fulfilled. In 2017, almost 8% of electricity came from renewable energy sources. After 2020, Ukraine will have more experience to predict its development of green generation in the long term.
Photo: pixabay
The largest wind stations in the world and Europe
Humanity has long tried to harness the energy of the sun and wind, but only in the last couple of decades there has been a breakthrough in these areas and the restructuring of powerful systems has begun. If we take into account the nominal power of one “green” station, then China and India hold the lead. The third place in terms of capacity is occupied by the United States.
So, the most powerful wind park in the world - Gansu with a capacity of about 8 GW - located in the Chinese province of Gansu. By 2020, the Chinese government plans to increase the country's total wind capacity to 20 GW.
In second place is Muppandal Park. , India, its capacity is only 1.5 GW.
Third place also in the Indian station - Jaisalmer with a capacity of 1.06 GW.
The fourth and fifth places in terms of wind power capacity are occupied by the United States: Alta - 1.02 GW (California) and Shefferds Flat - 845 MW (Oregon).
So far, the vast majority of wind farms in the world are located on land. However, the Nordic countries have placed their bets on offshore wind farms.
For many years, Denmark was the leader in wind energy. Therefore, it was Danish engineers who were the first to decide to take powerful wind turbines directly into the sea: there is nothing holding back the direction of the wind, and the wind towers themselves, more than 100 m in height and weighing thousands of tons, do not interfere with anyone or threaten anyone in the event of a breakdown. Today there are such stations in Great Britain, Denmark, Norway, Ireland, and Germany.
The largest wind park in Europe with a capacity of 346 MW - Burbo Bank - appeared in the UK, in Liverpool Bay. The first stage was launched back in 2007, construction of the second began in 2016, and on May 17, 2017 it was put into operation. The total area of the wind turbine park is equal to 20,000 football fields. The height of one structure reaches 195 m, and the length of the wind blade is 79.8 m. One revolution of such a blade provides electricity to a small house for 29 hours. In total, it can supply electricity to 600,000 homes.
The largest solar stations in the world and Europe
The world's largest solar station The power is significantly inferior to wind power. Indian Sambhar Lake (still under construction) will have a capacity of only 4 GW, which is half that of the largest wind farm. The cost of this project is $4 billion.
In second place is Longyangxia Dam Solar Park , China. It was put into operation in 2015, its capacity is 850 MW.
In third place - Kamuthi Solar Power Project , India, capacity 648 MW. The project was completed in 2016.
Two more places in the top five are occupied by Solar Star and Topaz stations in California, USA. Their capacities are 580 MW and 550 MW, respectively.
Europe cannot boast of such achievements, mainly because there are no such free plots of land here. However, in 2017, in Portugal, the Chinese national company CNBM began construction of the largest solar station in Europe - Solara 4 Vaqueiros with a capacity of 221 MW.
Almost the same station will soon be built in Ukraine. In the spring of 2018, DTEK began construction of the Nikopol SPP with a capacity of 200 MW - installation of solar panels began in October. It is planned to be put into operation at the beginning of 2019. The total area of the station will be 400 hectares.
How the world is working to make green energy accessible
All countries of the world and leading manufacturers of solar and wind equipment are looking for opportunities to increase the share of “green” energy, make it cheaper and interest as many ordinary consumers as possible in its development.
Until now, the standard efficiency of polycrystalline solar panels was 16.5%. But recently one of the leading developers reported that this efficiency was raised to 23.5%. So far in laboratory conditions, but now bringing it to industrial parameters is a matter of time. That is, the panel area and maintenance costs, as well as installation efforts and tariffs, will be significantly reduced.
Manufacturers of wind blades and turbine modules are also improving their products. The modules can now turn with the wind, so to speak, “catch” the direction of the blow, and not just wait for a “fair wind.” And additional structural strips appear on the blades, which capture even the slightest breath.
Software manufacturers are improving their Smart Grids systems, which collect all the information about changing weather conditions and make increasingly accurate forecasts. This allows you to correctly calculate the operation of wind and solar stations. All these achievements are used by progressive officials.
A case in point is the largest US state, California. The state government is considering a bill that plans to oblige the installation of solar panels on the roofs of all new private and apartment buildings from 2020. And those who install batteries and make the most of their own electricity will be given bonuses.
Residents of the small German town of Morbach, home to 11,000 people, also agreed to a certain experiment. By 2020, residents want to provide themselves 100% with electricity and heat from environmentally friendly sources. True, the residents of Morbach do not have to start from scratch: this locality already has an “Energy Landscape” park, which combines a biogas plant, 14 wind generators and a solar station located on 4 hectares. The bio-plant runs on local agricultural waste.
Today, the city government is looking for an investor who would develop and implement the concept of optimal mixed use of all three sources, which would fully cover the needs of Morbach - both residents and industrial production.
Ukraine in the global “green” trend
It should be noted that Ukraine is building its “green” energy sector according to both scenarios. On the one hand, powerful industrial investors are building large stations. In 2018 alone, several high-profile statements were made.
This spring, Tokmak Solar Energy announced the construction of a 50 MW solar station in the Zaporozhye region. So far, the first stage of 11 MW has been put into operation. In the summer, the Norwegian company NBS AS announced the construction of a wind park with a capacity of 250 MW in the Kalanchak district of the Kherson region. DTEK is engaged in the construction of three more powerful stations. We have already mentioned the solar station above. Now we should name DTEK's wind projects: Primorskaya wind farm with a capacity of 200 MW and Orlovskaya wind farm with a capacity of 100 MW in the Zaporozhye region. They are scheduled to be completed by 2020.
On the other hand, local Ukrainian officials, as in the German Morbach, are announcing the gradual transition of their cities to 100% renewable sources. True, they set themselves a more distant deadline - 2050. In the summer of 2018, similar obligations were assumed by the mayors of three Ukrainian cities: Zhytomyr, Kamenets-Podolsky and Chortkiv. They signed a corresponding memorandum with the International Climate Organization 350.org. In September, Lvov also joined the signatories.
City leaders see the construction of new “green” thermal power plants using biofuel as a priority measure. The next steps will be global “green” trends. Lvov Mayor Andrey Sadovyi explained that the city’s development plan includes support points for electric transport, investments in wastewater treatment plants and the latest technologies based on wind and solar.
Solar station "Tokmak Solar Energy" in Zaporozhye region
The future requires new specialists
With the development of “green” energy, businesses have new demands on the labor market. How did I find out? Mind, none of the higher educational institutions in Ukraine is yet training narrow industry specialists, only the formation of a request is underway. The curriculum includes topics on renewable energy.
Mind addressed the employees of DTEK, which is one of the leading companies in the development of “green” power plants, with a question: what knowledge and qualities do new specialists in the field of renewable sources need? Through joint efforts, we managed to identify several directions.
With the increase in the number of “green” stations, there is a need for specialists in forecasting electricity production from renewable energy sources (wind and sun) rolled into one - meteorologist and power engineer with knowledge of mathematics .
When servicing wind power plants (WPP), it is necessary to have specialists in the electrical part of the wind turbine, and in the communication, and in the hydraulic, and in the mechanical . That is, we need universal electromechanics with knowledge that has not yet been in demand in traditional energy.
Moreover, it is difficult to imagine an efficient modern wind power plant without people with knowledge of aerodynamics. So, the range of professions at green energy facilities is expanding, and new ones are appearing on the edge of traditional professions: electromechanical engineers of wind power plants or specialists in analyzing the efficiency of wind turbine facilities .
Prospects for science
In addition, investor companies and equipment manufacturers organize full-fledged courses for future specialists and training directly at stations where “green” energy sources and advanced energy equipment are installed at associated substations. The equipment of laboratories of educational institutions with modern equipment is sponsored.
So, a number of traditional specialists, having received additional education, can apply for promising positions that are already in demand by the market. It all depends on the person: for those who are looking for new opportunities in the profession, there are all additional opportunities.
Science related to renewable energy sources has also received a certain boost. First of all, these are industries focused on increasing the efficiency of generating equipment - wind turbines, solar panels, semiconductor technology. Therefore, photoelectronics, power electronics, and aerodynamics are being developed, and attempts to use artificial intelligence to create a “smart station” have intensified.
Today, “green” energy forces us to take a fresh look at known sciences and technologies, which can lead to the emergence of new, completely unknown branches of knowledge.
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By purchasing a solar panel and an electric car in 2020, the average European will receive free electricity for 12 years. In the next 10-20 years, centralized electricity production from fossil fuels
By purchasing a solar panel and an electric car in 2020, the average European will receive free electricity for 12 years.
In the next 10-20 years, centralized electricity generation from fossil fuels will die out in the EU, and large power plants will become a thing of the past. This is the forecast of UBS experts. It is the world's largest private bank, with assets exceeding $1.5 trillion, and one of the leading investment institutions on the planet. His forecasts partly become something of a self-fulfilling prophecy and, if only for this reason, deserve close attention.
So, as follows from the bank’s analysts’ calculations, Europe is on the verge of a paradigm shift in electricity consumption and generation. “Electric energy has ceased to be the product of exclusively huge centralized enterprises owned by large structures. By 2025, anyone will be able to produce and save energy,” note the authors of the report. It will be “green” and will receive a competitive price, that is, it will become no more expensive or even cheaper than purchased from utility companies, hitherto considered natural monopolies, experts believe, calling on investor clients to “support the revolution.”
They argue that three factors—affordable electric vehicles, advances in solar power, and dramatically lower battery costs—will lead to a complete overhaul of the current electricity supply model. Moreover, if not by burying the traditional model of energy generation based on coal and natural gas, then by irrevocably driving it into a ghetto.
Large power plants will begin to disappear in the relatively near future: they are too large, their capacity is too inflexible and does not correspond to the needs of future electricity consumption. The abandonment of them will be due to the fact that it will be cheaper for households and industrial facilities to obtain and accumulate its surplus themselves. As noted in the report, solar energy has become quite competitive. Its biggest drawback has been its inconsistent power supply, but that's where electric vehicles and high-capacity batteries will soon come into play.
By 2020, a mass-produced electric car will be almost equal in price to a car equipped with a traditional internal combustion engine. But it will save up to 2 thousand euros per year on fuel costs, that is, it will begin to pay for itself almost immediately after purchase without any significant “advance investment”. This will ensure rapid growth in the popularity of electric vehicles, especially in countries with high fossil fuel prices. By the way, the total cost of maintaining a Tesla Model S for more than three years is already equal to the costs of an Audi A7. Moreover, Tesla plans to release a new mass model priced at $35 thousand in 2017.
Power companies and utilities are not going away. But their role will be limited to closing the remaining gaps, for example, covering morning consumption peaks. And smart distribution networks will allow for more flexible and efficient energy consumption.
The synergy of these two factors - the mass production of electric vehicles and batteries - will lead to a turning point in the European energy system around 2020. The expected reduction in the price of imported power supplies will lead to an exponential increase in demand for stationary batteries designed to collect excess energy in buildings, according to UBS. “Energy storage will become financially attractive for households when combined with a solar power system and an electric vehicle. As a result, we expect transformational changes in the household and automotive sectors,” the document says. By 2020, for the average consumer in Germany, Italy, Spain and much of the rest of Europe, purchasing a home solar power system with a 20-year life cycle, coupled with a small battery and an electric car, will pay for itself in six to eight years. And this is even without any government subsidies for solar energy. In other words, by purchasing a system in 2020, the average European will receive free electricity for 12 years.
And another bonus: falling prices for batteries and solar panels will make electric cars cheaper than conventional cars in most European markets. Moreover, UBS calls the conservative scenario 10% of the car market by 2025. The expansion of the electric vehicle market will lead to further improvement of battery technologies, and the cycle will repeat again. The International Energy Agency believes that reaching three-quarters of sales by 2050 will help keep global warming to within two degrees Celsius.
At the household level, the system would work like this: the electric car would charge at night, solar panels would provide electricity during the day, and excess energy would be stored in a battery that could be discharged in the evening to cover the remaining needs of the home.
Still, the bank doesn't expect energy companies and utilities to disappear. However, their role will be limited to closing the remaining gaps, for example, covering morning consumption peaks. And smart distribution networks will allow for more flexible and efficient energy consumption. In general, this vaguely resembles something between the Internet, where the load can be transferred from server to server, and P2P networks, where any household with excess energy can be a “server”.
Thus, energy systems will become more efficient, since consumers will be distributed over compact locations, rather than concentrated over large areas that are served by a single source (station). This will reduce the need to transmit energy over long distances, and, accordingly, the associated losses due to the length of transmission lines.
The report, obviously, does not affect powerful energy-consuming industries such as metallurgical enterprises. But their specific share in European consumption is relatively small, in addition, the transition from giant factories to distributed production makes it possible to consider the conclusions of UBS employees to be fair in relation to heavy industrial facilities - even against the backdrop of the predicted reindustrialization of the Old World. Among all the geopolitical questions that this revolution will affect, one can pose at least this one: what will happen to Gazprom and how will this affect Russian statehood?
Solar energy will become more accessible
Over the past decade, batteries have become more affordable. Moreover, price dynamics, the pace of technological development and production growth allow us to expect that this process will go further. The forecast is that the price of a lithium battery will fall by more than half compared to 2013 over the next six years. Moreover, the catalyst for this process is the rapid development of electric transport.
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Source: http://zvt.abok.ru/articles/148/Alternativnaya_energetika_Rossii,
One of the main trends in the modern world is an active shift in energy consumption, which is growing every day, towards the use of alternative energy sources.
There have also been positive changes in Russia. Thus, a turning point in the Russian history of alternative energy can be called the entry into force of a Government decree aimed at stimulating the use of renewable energy sources in the wholesale electricity and capacity market.
Green energy, using inexhaustible “reserves” of energy from the sun, wind, rivers, geothermal energy and thermal energy from constantly renewable biomass*, has today become the subject of discussion at all important political meetings and forums.
* The article is devoted only to three sectors of renewable energy sources: solar, wind energy and small hydropower. The bioenergy sector is very vast and deserves a separate topic for consideration.
Every year, green energy provides an increasing part of the energy resource needs of the world's leading economies. Essentially, today we are witnessing the construction of a new global energy paradigm, which involves the decisive contribution of renewable energy sources (RES) to total energy consumption and the gradual displacement of traditional fossil energy resources. According to the energy strategy adopted by the EU, by 2020 the member countries of the Commonwealth must ensure a 20% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, an increase in the share of renewable energy to 20% and a 20% increase in energy efficiency. In the longer term, many countries are going much further. In particular, Germany plans to achieve a 60% share of renewable energy sources in the country’s overall energy balance and 80% in electricity production by 2050.
Wind, solar energy and biofuel production are the fastest growing sectors of modern industry, the development of which has attracted the entire scientific and technical potential of the leading countries of the world. Under these conditions, the discussion about the economic feasibility of active development of renewable energy sources in the Russian Federation is transformed into an awareness of the political inevitability of movement in the direction of alternative energy. Relying only on hydrocarbon fuels threatens the country with the prospect of a significant technological lag behind the world's leading countries in the energy sector that is fundamental to the economy and, as a consequence, the loss of Russia's leading position in the global economy. That is why in recent years, despite Russia’s full supply of traditional energy resources, there has been a positive change in the attitude of the Russian state and business towards alternative types of energy.
Legislation and support for renewable energy sources. Russia's special path
It is no secret that due to the high cost of renewable energy sources, their rapid development in the leading countries of the world in the last decade became possible only thanks to financial support from states. Currently, in world practice, there are several mechanisms to support electricity generation projects based on renewable energy sources. The most popular of them are two: feed-in tariffs and green certificates. In the first case, the state guarantees the purchase of electricity from renewable energy sources from producers at special, higher tariffs. They are installed for a specific facility using alternative energy sources for 20–25 years, which ensures good profitability of such projects. In the second case, upon selling electricity generated from renewable energy sources on the free market, the manufacturer receives a special confirming certificate (a similar scheme operates, for example, in Sweden and Norway), which can subsequently be sold. The state ensures the demand for such certificates by introducing legislative requirements for the share of renewable energy sources in the country's energy sector, including benefits for companies using renewable energy sources and fines for “dirty” companies.
| GREEN CERTIFICATES IN SWEDEN |
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Green certificate system for electricity introduced into in Sweden 2003 year, replaced the previously used system of grants and subsidies. The main goal of green certificates is to increase the production of electricity from renewable energy sources by 20 TWh by 2020 relative to the 2002 level. The system supports companies using renewable energy sources: hydroelectric power plants and electricity producers generating it from wind energy, burning biofuel and peat. The operation of the system is based on following principles:
You can track the dynamics of changes in the value of certificates, for example, on the website of one of the brokers operating in the green certificates market. It is worth noting that in the end, the end user – all Swedish citizens – pays for the support of electricity producers using renewable energy sources. According to experts, the share of green certificates in the cost of electricity for end users is about 3%. Benefits of green certificates:
Green certificates have proven themselves well in Sweden, which has become an example for other countries in Europe. The UK, Italy, Poland and Belgium have introduced similar schemes to support electricity production from renewable energy sources. Norway has completely replicated the Swedish system, making it possible to unite the green certificate market of these countries. |
Both mechanisms stimulate the final producers of green energy, while ensuring high market demand for equipment for renewable energy sources and, accordingly, the competitive development of enterprises producing it. All this guarantees the attraction of new technologies into the industry and the struggle of manufacturers for low costs.
As a result, the active growth of alternative energy in past years, the effects of scaling and technological improvement of production in the industry have led to a significant reduction in the cost of renewable energy sources and the achievement of network parity in an increasing number of regions of the world (a state of parity in the cost of energy obtained from conventional sources and alternative ones). Nevertheless, government assistance is still required to stimulate the start of the development of renewable energy industries in new markets, especially in countries that do not have an urgent need for energy resources.
Over the past years, Russia has been looking for its own way to support renewable energy sources, the need for which is determined by the specific features of the domestic energy market. A distinctive feature of the Russian electricity market is the scheme of RAO UES of Russia, which involves the simultaneous functioning of two mechanisms for trading electricity: the sale of electricity itself (its physically generated volumes) and the sale of capacity. The sale of power is carried out through power supply agreements (PDAs), which stipulate, on the one hand, the obligation of the electricity supplier to keep generating equipment ready to generate electricity of established quality in the amount necessary to meet the consumer’s electricity needs, and on the other hand, a guarantee payment for power by the consumer.
After futile attempts to stimulate the development of renewable energy sources in Russia through surcharges to the market price of electricity, on May 28, 2013, the Government of the Russian Federation adopted Resolution No. 449 “On the mechanism for stimulating the use of renewable energy sources in the wholesale electricity and capacity market.” The developers of this resolution tried to ensure maximum integration of the mechanism for supporting renewable energy sources into the specific architecture of the electricity market existing in the country. Support for renewable energy sources (provided for three types: solar, wind energy and small hydropower) is carried out through renewable energy supply agreements - power supply agreements, modified taking into account the characteristics of renewable energy sources. Changes made to the standard CSA ensure the operation of renewable energy facilities according to rules similar to those that apply to power generation facilities operating in forced mode.
There are contradictions inherent in the very fact of using the CSA mechanism (which, in essence, is a trade in guarantees) to sell unstable, weather-dependent alternative energy.
Attempts to implement this mechanism are already revealing a lot of problems. Local network operators do not always correctly understand the specifics of the new legislation, which leads to an unreasonable requirement for the owners of generating facilities to provide a guarantee of supply of the required power.
It takes time for all participants in the renewable energy market to adapt to new conditions. Clarifications from legislators to local operators and the development of additional by-laws will be required.
According to current legislation, RES in Russia will be supported within the framework of annual quotas (target parameters) allocated for each type of RES for the period until 2020 (Table 1). The selection of investment projects for the construction of generating facilities based on renewable energy sources is carried out at specialized competitions, where maximum levels of capital costs are established. The main condition for receiving maximum financial assistance from the state is the requirement of localization, i.e., ensuring that part of the equipment for the project is produced within the country. This requirement not only reflects the state’s desire to stimulate the use of alternative energy, but also defines it as a priority task for the development of the industry as a whole, involving the enormous scientific and technological potential of the Russian economy.
| TABLE 1. TARGET PARAMETERS FOR INTRODUCING NEW CAPACITY BASED ON RES, MW | ||||||||
| Objects | Year of commissioning of facilities | |||||||
| 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | Total | |
| 100 | 250 | 250 | 500 | 750 | 750 | 1 000 | 3 600 | |
| 120 | 140 | 200 | 250 | 270 | 270 | 270 | 1 520 | |
| 18 | 26 | 124 | 124 | 141 | 159 | 159 | 751 | |
| Total | 238 | 416 | 574 | 874 | 1161 | 1179 | 1429 | 5871 |
The legislation provides for strict localization requirements (Table 2). All facilities in each renewable energy sector that have received government support must be at least 50% based on Russian equipment.
| TABLE 2. TARGET PARAMETERS FOR LOCALIZATION OF GENERATING FACILITIES BASED ON RES | ||
| Objects | Year of commissioning | Target localization rate, % |
| Generating facilities operating on the basis of wind energy | 2014 | 35 |
| 2015 | 55 | |
| From 2016 to 2020 | 65 | |
| Generating facilities operating on the basis of photoelectric conversion of solar energy | From 2014 to 2015 | 50 |
| From 2016 to 2017 | 70 | |
| Generating facilities with an installed capacity of less than 25 MW, operating on the basis of water energy | From 2014 to 2015 | 20 |
| From 2016 to 2017 | 45 | |
| From 2018 to 2020 | 65 | |
Milder conditions apply to small hydroelectric power plants (SHPPs). In 2014–2015, a 20% localization requirement is in force, but this is rather a virtual option, since, taking into account the specifics of the sector, the first facilities will appear no earlier than 2016–2017, when the 45% localization requirement comes into force.
The first competition for selecting renewable energy projects for 2014–2017 was held from August to September 2013. Its results are largely assessed by experts as a failure. The main reason is that the participants were given too little time to prepare for the competition, which was held just three months after the adoption of the relevant resolution. Many companies simply did not manage to fulfill all the conditions for submitting applications in time.
Current state of renewable energy sources in Russia
Renewable energy is taking its first steps in Russia. In fact, the only area of alternative energy in the country that has achieved significant results in recent years is the biofuel industry, in particular the production of wood pellets. Russia is the leading supplier of these products to European markets.
In the production of electricity based on renewable energy sources, only hydropower has achieved significant development, which accounts for up to 16 % of the country’s energy balance. However, here too, green power plants, i.e., those that have minimal impact on the SHPP ecosystem (with a capacity of up to 30 MW), make up a negligible part, while most of them were built in Soviet times. The solar and wind power sectors today are almost at the zero (starting) mark.
Small hydropower
Small hydroelectric power plants (by international standards - hydroelectric power stations with a capacity of up to 25–30 MW) were the most important source of electricity for the national economy of the USSR in the first half of the last century. In the 1950s, there were about 6,500 SHPPs in the USSR (most in Russia) with a total capacity of more than 320 MW, which generated a quarter of the electricity consumed in rural areas. The subsequent centralization of energy supply led to an almost complete abandonment of small hydropower.
In the new millennium, SHPPs are again gaining popularity in the Russian Federation, and the development of this industry is going in two possible ways: the restoration of outdated abandoned SHPPs and the construction of new ones. The energy potential of Russian small rivers is of interest from the point of view of replacing imported energy resources in remote rural regions of the country.
Today, the small hydropower industry in Russia, after a long period of oblivion, is only taking its first steps, as evidenced by the competition for selecting renewable energy investment projects, held last year. In the SHPP sector, the competition failed because not a single project was submitted. The reasons are the uncertainty of the power certification procedures and confirmation of the degree of equipment localization. The specifics of small hydropower and the lack of time to prepare documents also played an important role in the failure of the competition. The above-mentioned resolution should provide the legislative framework for intensifying the process of development of the small hydropower industry in Russia in the near future.
Currently, there are about 300 SHPPs operating in Russia with a total capacity of about 1,300 MW. The main player in the small hydroelectric power station market is the company JSC RusHydro, which unites more than 70 renewable energy facilities. The organization has developed programs for the construction of small hydropower plants, which involve the construction of 384 stations with a total capacity of 2.1 GW. In the next few years in Russia we can expect the commissioning of new small hydropower capacities in the amount of 50–60 MW of installed capacity annually.
Wind energy
Over the past decade, wind energy has consistently held the global leadership among new renewable energy technologies. By the end of 2013, the total installed capacity of wind power plants (WPPs) in the world exceeded 320 GW.
RICE. 1. HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD WIND ENERGY MARKET. GROWTH IN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS IN 1997–2012, MW (According to WWEA DATA)
Russia, thanks to its vast territory covering several climatic zones, has the world's largest potential for wind power generation (estimated at 260 billion kWh of electricity per year, which is about 30 % of the current electricity production of all power plants in the country).
It should be noted that most of the most “wind-rich” regions of Russia are areas remote from the main power generating capacities of the country. These include Kamchatka, the Magadan region, Chukotka, Sakhalin, Yakutia, Buryatia, Taimyr, etc. They generally do not have their own fossil energy resources, and the distance from main power lines and transport energy oil and gas pipelines makes it economically unjustified to connect the regions to centralized energy supply . In fact, the only constant source of electricity in remote areas of Russia are diesel generators running on expensive imported fuel. The electricity produced with their help has an extremely high cost (20–40 rubles per 1 kWh). In such regions, the construction of wind farms as the main source of electricity supply is economically profitable even without any financial support from the state.
Despite the unconditional economic feasibility of using wind power plants in many remote regions of the country, the development of wind energy (on the scale of total power generation) is currently at almost zero level. There are just over 10 wind farms operating in the country, with a total installed capacity of just 16.8 MW. These are all outdated wind farms using low-power wind generators. For comparison, we note that in neighboring Ukraine, which currently has no shortage of electricity, the total installed capacity of wind farms has reached 400 MW, with 80% of the capacity installed over the past two years.
Wind farms are often built in the coastal strip of seas and oceans, where
the winds blow constantly
The largest wind farm in Russia is currently the Kulikovskaya (Zelenogradskaya) wind farm, owned by the Yantarenergo company. It was built in the Kaliningrad region between 1998 and 2002. The power plant with a total capacity of 5.1 MW consists of 21 wind generators, of which 20 units with a capacity of 225 kW each were received as a grant from the Danish government from SEAS Energi Service A. S. Before installation at the Kulikovskaya wind farm, the wind turbines served for about eight years in the Danish wind farm Noysomehead Wind Farm.
In the first competition of investment projects for the construction of power generation facilities based on renewable energy sources in the wind energy segment, only one company took part - Complex Industry LLC, which submitted only seven equal projects with an installed capacity of 15 MW each. The company's total planned capital expenditures for the implementation of all projects are about 6.8 billion rubles. The average planned installation cost of 1 kW of installed capacity of a wind farm is 64,918.3 rubles. All of the company's projects passed both rounds without changes and were selected for implementation.
There are no projects planned for 2014–2015. Only one project (the Aksarayskaya wind farm in the Astrakhan region) is planned to be commissioned in 2016. The remaining six projects will be commissioned in 2017. In total, two projects will be implemented in the Astrakhan and Orenburg regions and three projects in the Ulyanovsk region.
Industry participants today are simply not ready for such a rapid implementation of large-scale wind farm projects, including due to the need to fulfill the requirement for localization of production.
Solar energy
Solar energy ranks first in the world among all types of renewable energy sources in terms of popularity and development dynamics.
RICE. 2. HISTORY OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WORLD PHOTOVOLTAICS MARKET. GROWTH IN THE TOTAL NUMBER OF INSTALLATIONS IN 2000–2012, MW (according to EPIA DATA)
In Russia, this area of energy is the least developed among alternative energy sources. The country has no more than 3 MW of total installed capacity of solar power plants (SPP), and these are mainly power generating systems with a unit capacity ranging from a few to tens of kilowatts. Over 90 % of all installations are made by small and medium-sized businesses, less than 10 % by private households. In many cases, such systems provide autonomous power supply to objects remote from the central power grid and work in conjunction with diesel generators.
The largest operating solar energy facilities in Russia as of September 2013 were two power plants of approximately the same capacity (100 kW). The first industrial-scale grid solar power plant in Russia was put into operation in October 2010 near the Krapivenskie Dvory farmstead in the Yakovlevsky district of the Belgorod region by the AltEnergo company. At the beginning of June 2013, Russia’s first autonomous diesel-solar power plant with a capacity of 100 kW (the power of installed solar modules is 60 kW) was also put into operation in the village of Yailyu, Turochaksky district, Altai Republic. Tandem-type thin-film photovoltaic modules for solar power plants are developed based on a-Si/µk-Si films. The equipment was produced in Russia at the Hevel company plant in Novocheboksarsk (a joint venture of the Renova group and Rusnano OJSC).
In December 2013, the first stage of Russia’s largest solar power plant, Kaspiyskaya, was launched in Dagestan. So far, 1 MW of capacity has been commissioned, but in the spring of 2014 the power plant will be brought to the planned capacity of 5 MW. The project is being implemented by the Dagestan branch of JSC RusHydro, construction is being carried out by the company MEK-Engineering. The launch of this power plant can be considered the starting point in the development of large megawatt-class solar power plants in Russia. In 2014, it is planned to complete two more SPP projects in Dagestan with a total capacity of 45 MW.
Solar energy is the only renewable energy sector in Russia in which the competition for the selection of investment projects in 2013 was held in full. The number of submitted applications exceeded the quotas allocated for the solar sector for 2014–2017 by 289 MW (according to the target parameters, this figure is 710 MW). A total of 58 applications were submitted for a total capacity of 999.2 MW. At the same time, for 2014, the volume of applications submitted exceeded the target indicators for the volumes of installed capacity commissioned by 29 %; for 2015 – by 75 %; for 2016 – by 59.5 %; for 2017 – by 12 %.
Based on the results of the competition, projects of five companies with a total capacity of 399 MW were selected (Fig. 3). However, the quota of projects specified in the target parameters is not filled, despite a wide selection. As in the wind energy and small hydropower sectors, the underfilled target quota for 2014 is burned out.
RICE. 3. DISTRIBUTION DIAGRAM OF SELECTED PROJECTS BY COMPANY
To summarize, we can say that the renewable energy sectors in Russia remain “mothballed”, although there is a positive shift and state guarantees, supported by legislation. Nevertheless, already in 2014 the first large projects for the construction of solar power plants with a total capacity of just over 35 MW will be implemented. Participants in the renewable energy market still have a long way to go, but the general outlines of this industry are already emerging in optimistic tones.
Literature
- The Federal Government’s Energy Concept of 2010 and the Transformation of the Energy System of 2011 // Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear Safety. 2011. Oct.
- Renewable Electricity with Green Certificates // Ministry of Sustainable Development. 2006. May.
- Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of May 28, 2013 No. 449 “On the mechanism for stimulating the use of renewable energy sources in the wholesale electricity and capacity market.”
- Annual Report of World Wind Energy Association. 2012.
- Global Market Outlook for Photovoltaics 2013–2017. European Photovoltaic Industry Association.
- Renewable energy market in Russia – 2013: information and analytical report from IBCentre.
Note: The above article was written in 2014. This year, 2015, the Russian Ministry of Energy has developed a strategy for the energy development of Russia until 2035, which we described in one of the articles previously published on the website. However, the new strategy does not bring significant changes in the development of alternative energy compared to the situation outlined in the article by Viktor Andrienko. It seems that our country remains hopeful that its energy needs will be met primarily by fossil fuels.
In the advanced countries of the World, progress in the field of green and clean energy has significantly outpaced the overall global progress.
Triumph!
On June 1, 2017, United States President Donald Trump announced that the United States would end its participation in the 2015 Paris (climate) agreement, saying that the country was “open to negotiations.”
During the presidential campaign, Trump promised to abandon the agreement, saying that withdrawal would help American companies and workers.
Trump also noted that withdrawing from the agreement is consistent with the chosen “America First” policy.
In accordance with Article 28 of the Paris Agreement, an early withdrawal of the United States from the climate agreement cannot be made earlier than November 4, 2020, that is, four years after the agreement entered into force in the United States (by a strange coincidence, the day after the Presidential elections on November 3 2020). Before withdrawing from the treaty, the United States was required to fulfill its obligations, including reporting harmful emissions to the United Nations.
A Sound of Thunder.
US Secretary of Energy, Rick Perry, gave a large and very detailed report to members of the Chamber of Commerce entitled “America Needs Coal and Nuclear.”
It should be noted that this speech was not new in its message; back at the end of June, Rick Perry posted a similar message on his Twitter page.
The average person (and the USA is no exception) has a very poor and vague understanding of where the electricity comes from at the outlet and where the hot water comes from the tap. Hence the sincere belief that the steel mill should be powered by solar panels.
From the point of view of people slightly involved in the energy industry, all the actions of the relevant American ministry look very logical and even moreover, pragmatic.
Let's try to figure out why the world hegemon decided to bring up coal and its own nuclear program again.
Structure.
When talking about the United States and its energy system, there are a number of simple but key numbers to keep in mind. The current population of the country is 325.7 million people, and it is constantly growing, for example, the number of American citizens has tripled over the past hundred years.
The area of the country is very, very impressive - 9,834,000 square kilometers.
The southern states lie in a zone of hot, almost tropical climate, and the northern states are in conditions quite comparable to an average Russian city like Voronezh.
But there is also the largest, coldest and most deserted state - Alaska. In order to provide all the needs of its, let’s face it, powerful industry, as well as to pamper its citizens with heating, hot water and air conditioning, the United States must annually generate at least 4,350,800 gigawatts per hour of electricity, second only to cyclopean China in this indicator ( 6,495,140 gigawatts per hour).
This is data for 2017 from an American government source - US Energy Information Administration.
For comparison: Russia spends 1,091,000 gigawatts per hour on “living”, and this despite the fact that our sub- and Arctic climate zone is somewhat larger. The same source claims that electricity generation in the United States, taking into account the source of its receipt, is divided as follows:
Natural gas - 31.8%,
oil - 28%,
The oil and gas needle is thus 59.8%
coal - 17.8%,
renewable sources - 12.7%,
Nuclear power plants - 9.6%.
As you can see, America is quite dependent on the notorious “oil and gas needle.” It’s no joke, almost 60% of all electricity in the country is generated from this type of fuel. But coal and nuclear energy, which Mr. Perry inadvertently mentioned in his speech, on the contrary, are among the outsiders. Why are they again trying to drag them into the domestic production arena? To understand this, you need to know some facts. For example, that in 2013 the share of energy obtained from America's own coal was a whopping 43%, and the share of nuclear energy exceeded 20%.
Our dear readers will probably ask, where did all this go? We will try to answer briefly.
Obama as an engine of progress.
The fact is that the 44th President of the United States and concurrent Nobel Peace Prize laureate Barack Obama was very fond of everything green, including energy. But I really didn’t like coal. In 2009, when Obama entered the Oval Office, there were 1,436 coal-fired power plants operating in the United States, generating a total of 339 gigawatts of electricity. At the insistence of various environmental and other organizations, which received generous financial assistance from the American budget, a large-scale offensive was launched against coal mining companies and coal generation in general. By the end of Mr. Obama's second term in office, that is, by 2016, the number of coal-fired power plants had decreased by 400. This resulted in a sudden drop in the state energy sector of 61 GW. This is comparable to the power of 47 ultra-modern nuclear reactors VVER-1200, one of which was recently put into operation at the Leningrad NPP.
Obama starts and wins!
In 2015, three of the four leading US coal mining companies declared bankruptcy:
Peabody Energy (1st place), the company produced an average of 189 million tons of coal per year, occupying 19% of the domestic market,
Arch Coal (2nd) - 135.8 million tons per year and 13.6% of the market,
Alpha Natural Resources (4th) – 80.1 million tons per year, 8% of the market.
Moreover, the leader of Peabody Energy owned the largest coal field in the world - North Antelope Rochelle, with coal reserves of two billion tons.
Obama's slogan is freedom first!
Over eight years, more than 150,000 people involved in coal mining, transportation, processing and power generation were released in the United States.
150,000 people no longer have to work in the dirty energy sector.
As for nuclear energy and why its share in the country’s energy sector fell so much - in this case, the same invisible hand of the market worked.
The fact is that all US nuclear power plants are privately owned. Two-thirds of American reactors are between 35 and 45 years old.
The only American player in this market, Westinghouse, is in a protracted process of bankruptcy and liquidation.
Private plant owners only exploit the existing infrastructure; there is no point in ancient nuclear power plant technologies on the eve of the Era of Green Energy.
Obama sincerely believed that dirty coal and dangerous atoms were already a distant past and that the era of renewable energy sources was about to arrive in the world.
By a strange coincidence, in February of this year, the most difficult situation arose in the state of Massachusetts, where the largest decline in coal production was observed.
The government declared a state of emergency due to abnormally severe frosts.
The situation was easily smoothed out by Russian liquefied gas from Yamal, which was delivered to Boston by the icebreaking gas carrier Christophe de Margerie.
