We invest in lithium and its producers. Lithium is a new tidbit for investors
What is lithium and how is it mined? What is the difference between lithium-ion and lithium polymer batteries? Laptop batteries (and many others) are made up of energy cells arranged in interconnected cells. Laptops, like most others mobile devices, run on lithium-ion or lithium-polymer batteries. A widely used lithium-ion battery consists of electrodes (an aluminum foil cathode and a copper anode) separated by a porous separator soaked in a liquid electrolyte. A lithium-ion battery has high energy density, but discharges quickly when used in cold weather and can be explosive if overcharged above 4.2 V. If you puncture a lithium-ion battery and create a short circuit, it will catch fire and cause a real strong fire, which cannot be easily extinguished with a conventional fire extinguisher. That is why many of these batteries are equipped with special protection. The lithium polymer battery (lithium-ion polymer battery) is an advanced design of the lithium-ion battery. In such a battery, not liquid, but dry polymer material (synthetic plastic) is used as an electrolyte. Unlike Li-ion, Li-po is safer, can deliver high currents and, thanks to polymer material, can be of any thickness and shape. A laptop equipped with a lithium-ion battery can support 3 times more charge cycles (that is, 3 times longer) than a laptop with a standard lithium-ion battery. Positive and negative electrodes of Li-po and Li-ion have similar chemical composition. The main difference between the two types of batteries is the way they are assembled. With lithium-ion technology, you can only choose a hard metal case for the shell, while lithium polymer technology allows you to use a soft shell for the case (plastic or aluminum foil). With a thickness of up to 3mm, Li-po has the advantage of capacity. With a thickness of more than 3 mm, Li-ion provides a significant cost benefit. How is lithium, from which both types of batteries are made, mined? The largest source of lithium is in Bolivia - the Salar de Uyuni, a dry salt lake located at an altitude of about 3650 m above sea level. It has an area of 10,588 km². The inside is covered with a layer table salt 2–8 m thick. Lithium chloride, found here in huge quantities, is suitable for extracting lithium from it, and was previously used as a replacement for ordinary salt. They stopped eating it after the discovery of toxic effects. For lithium extraction salt solutions First, it is pumped to the surface into special ponds, where, under the influence of the sun, slow evaporation occurs over several months. When the lithium chloride in the evaporation ponds reaches the optimal concentration, the solution is pumped to a recovery plant, where unwanted impurities are removed from the mixture by filtration. The conversion of lithium to metal is done in an electrolytic cell. Lithium chloride is mixed with potassium chloride in a ratio of 55% to 45% to produce a molten eutectic electrolyte. Next, by electrolysis of the melt at a temperature of 600 °C, molten lithium is obtained, which rises to the surface of the electrolyte.
The surge in production of electric vehicles means an equally rapid rise in consumption of lithium, a key component in their batteries. What does this mean for us?
Lithium is the third element of the periodic table. The silvery metal, slightly reminiscent of aluminum in appearance, is very light - it floats even in kerosene. In water too, but not for long. As befits an alkali metal, lithium reacts violently with water to form hydroxide LiOH and hydrogen. Of course, such a chemically active metal does not occur in its pure form in nature. At least on earth.
For the same reason, lithium metal is rarely used by humans. It accounts for only 5% of global consumption. In all other areas human activity its compounds are used, primarily carbonate (Li2CO3), a salt of carbonic acid, externally reminiscent of the common table salt, but much less soluble in water. Speaking further about global production and consumption, we will mean carbonate and (little by little) other compounds - hydroxide, chloride, etc.
Pure metal lithium. /cloudfront.net
In 2017, global production will be about 188 thousand tons. By 2035 it will increase several times and will probably be somewhere in the range from 1200 thousand tons to 600 thousand tons.
It was like that before
The traditional area of application of lithium, which developed in the 19th–20th centuries, is the production of glass and ceramics. The addition of alkali metals to the charge reduces its thermal expansion and improves the refractive index, and most importantly, lowers the melting point. Clean quartz glass begins to soften at 1400 degrees, additives can reduce this limit by about two to three hundred degrees, which means very good energy savings. It's about about very small quantities (there is about 0.1–0.4% of lithium), but, taking into account the total volume, it comes out to be quite a lot. Glass and similar industries - ceramics, porcelain and others - account for a total of slightly more than a third of global consumption. In addition, lithium compounds are used in pharmacology, and pure lithium is used in nuclear energy as a coolant.
Production of glass containers. /borfi.ru
The first place in terms of growth rate by a large margin is held by the production of batteries - now it is almost a third.
It must be said that this was not always the case. The first lithium-ion batteries were released by SONY in 1991. The design quickly fell in love with manufacturers and consumers for its high energy intensity and unpretentiousness, which led to a rapid increase in demand and, accordingly, production. The consequence of this was fast growth lithium mining.
World lithium consumption. / tesla-club.ru
Let's pay attention to these data, they are important. Until 1991, that is, just a quarter of a century ago, there was no market for lithium-containing batteries. Now its share in world consumption exceeds thirty percent. In other words, lithium consumption during this time increased by almost one and a half times only due to new applications. And there will be more.
Prophecy Mask
“To produce 500,000 cars a year, we will have to buy all the lithium in the world,” Elon Musk said at the Model 3 presentation in late March 2016.
A modern electric car battery contains about a hundred times more lithium than the average laptop and ten thousand times more than a smartphone. And the production of electric vehicles is growing. Tesla alone intends to sell half a million cars in 2018, and already 1 million in 2020. This is more than in the quote above, which suggests that Musk was shocking the public, but even in this case the problem is obvious.
Tesla Model 3. / motoringresearch.com
Tesla is not the only contender for the big score. Electric cars are starting to be produced by a variety of companies around the world, who caught the scent of big changes in time. Governments are keeping up with them developed countries peace. In 2025, the sale of cars with internal combustion engines will be banned in Norway, in 2030 - in Germany. In 2040, about 35% of the “self-driving carts” sold to earthlings will be electric vehicles.
A clean atmosphere means the production of electric vehicles will increase. This means that lithium consumption will also increase. Modern technologies So far they have not promised us good batteries based on other elements of the periodic table.
Sources
Lithium occurs in many varieties in the earth's crust and can therefore be mined in many different ways. Of the ores, the most significant is spodumene - a silicate with aluminum, LiAl(Si2O6), most used in glass production, as well as in the production of lithium metal. Another, somewhat unexpected, area of its application is jewelry making. The mineral sometimes forms crystals, the color of which (from completely transparent to deep green or purple) depends on the content of impurities of other (other than aluminum and lithium) metals. These crystals can sometimes reach a meter or even larger size.
Spodumene crystal. /free-photos.biz
In addition, lithium can be extracted from mica, granites, ores of other metals and waste dumps of their production, formation waters, and even simply from sea water - its content in it is 0.17 mg/l. Of course, it can be obtained from household waste- It contains a lot of lithium batteries. The only question is the price of this process, and of everyone else too.
The most economically profitable method today is the extraction of lithium carbonate from dry salt lakes.
Like on a plate
Many kilometers of dry salt underfoot, a cloudless sky overhead and mountains somewhere far ahead. This is what Lake Uyuni looks like today in eastern Bolivia. Once upon a time there was a real large reservoir here, which slowly dried up and split into pieces. Now nothing grows here and no one lives here. Desert. Several millimeters of precipitation falls here annually.
Panorama of the Uyuni salt marsh. /awayfarers.files.wordpress.com
The surface of the salt marsh reflects light well, it is absolutely horizontal, there is almost always a clear sky above it, and its location is known with millimeter accuracy. Therefore, it is no wonder that Uyuni is one of the favorite targets that help specialists verify satellite instruments.
It is also the world's largest lithium deposit. Concentrated brine, which contains many useful elements for humans, including lithium, lies right under your feet, under a crust of dried salt. In practice, its location is described by the words “on the surface.” The concentration of lithium salts in the brine reaches 0.3%, and in total about 10 billion tons rest here. Bolivia is the world champion in lithium reserves.
Evaporation of brine (brine). /fthmb.tqn.com
Today, about 25 thousand tons are mined from this wealth. The Bolivian government is in no hurry to welcome foreign investors, believing that the extraction of such a valuable resource should be in state hands. Time will tell whether this approach is correct, but for now we should keep in mind that Uyuni is not the only salt marsh on the planet.
On the other side of the border, in Chile, there are about a dozen former reservoirs similar in structure. None of them have the same reserves as Uyuni, but they are happy to have the opportunity to extract and sell resources now. They are looking for investors for this and expanding production. And the seaports are closer here. Time will tell how correct this approach is, and today Chile is the world champion in lithium mining. About 43% of the global volume. There are similar salt marshes in Argentina, and lithium is also mined there.
There are approximately the same lakes in China, more precisely, in the highlands of Tibet. The most famous lake is Chabier-Tsaka. The salty reservoir with an area of just over 240 km2 has not yet dried up, its depth in some places reaches two meters, but the concentration of salts in it is already quite sufficient for their industrial extraction, which is happening, giving China an honorable second place in the list of lithium producers.
Probably, if you look hard enough, there will be other drying up salt water bodies on Earth. It is important for us now that the extraction of rare elements, including lithium, from them is today much cheaper than more traditional methods associated with various ores. There is no need to dig up the brine and then enrich it; it is enough to scoop it up and pour it into a small pool. The sun and dry air will do the rest. This, of course, is just the beginning of the journey. The lithium carbonate used in the battery of your smartphone has no more than 0.5% impurities, rather less, but you can save money in this area.
Prospects
In recent years, the price of lithium carbonate has doubled, reaching $10 thousand per ton. According to experts, we are not in danger of running out of such an expensive metal; it is too common on Earth. This obviously means that rising prices will entail investing in production and increasing it.
According to the forecast of the British consulting company CRU, the current shortage will disappear in 2018, and in the future supplies will outpace demand. The oversupply will peak in 2022, when it will amount to about 25% of global consumption.
Dynamics of lithium carbonate prices. /smedata.sk
In particular, large lithium projects will be implemented in western and central China by the end of this decade. Around the same time, new facilities are expected to be commissioned in other countries. After this, that is, by 2020, the supply of lithium on the world market may reach 500 thousand tons, which is approximately 2.5 times more than in 2016. The average cost of lithium compounds in 2020 will most likely be about $6.5– 7 thousand per ton.
Lithium prices are skyrocketing, small mining companies are rushing to lay claim to reserves of the rare metal, and investment sites are red-hot with speculation surrounding its future performance.
The Global X lithium fund (NYSE ARCA: LIT), one of the very few ways anyone can invest in this industry, is up 25% over the past three months, and year-to-date total volume of assets lass="hint hint--bottom hint--rounded" data-hint="Assets under management is the total market value of assets that an investment company or financial institution manages on behalf of investors. Specific definitions of assets under management vary by company. Some Financial institutions consider bank deposits, mutual funds and cash when calculating total assets under management; others are limited to funds under trust management, where the investor places full responsibility on the company."> Fund assets under management jumped from $41 million to $68 million.
The situation has changed incredibly since the 90s, when the US Department of Energy sold off excess reserves and mines across the country closed - the nuclear arms race came to an end, and demand for one of the materials used in the production hydrogen bombs, fell sharply.
But already in 1991, the fate of this metal changed radically: Sony (TYO: 6758) launched lithium-ion batteries, which today are found in almost all electronic devices. Not every metal can boast such a variety of uses!
Now it promises to reach even more impressive heights: car companies, led by Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), are increasingly working to create electric vehicles for the mass market, using an improved version of the same technology.
Lithium could be a key material in the coming green revolution, helping to create energy storage devices.
However, when it comes to the mechanics of pricing, the lightest metal on the periodic table is shrouded in secrecy.
If lithium becomes an integral part of the global energy supply chain, its market opacity could become a big problem.
How much is metal?
Let's start from the very beginning simple question. How much does lithium cost?
According to research company CRU, raw materials suitable for battery production cost more than $20,000 per ton on the Chinese spot market.
Analysts at Macquarie Bank say the price of Chinese lithium carbonate - the form in which the metal is most often sold - is about $7,000; At the same time, American export lithium costs only 5 thousand.
But no matter how you look at it, prices are clearly on the rise. According to CRU estimates, the Chinese spot price has almost tripled since the middle of last year - then it was $7 thousand. Macquarie, meanwhile, notes that Chinese import prices for Chinese carbonate and export prices for lithium hydroxide have already reached record highs.
It's a little confusing, isn't it?
There are two problems here. The first is the alarming number of products that are made from this metal - from lithium stearate (used in industrial degreasing) to lithium fluoride (used in aluminum smelting) and butyllithium (used in organic synthesis).
Pricing for all of these materials is generally based on the price of lithium carbonate, which is primarily used to make batteries.
But even after these explanations everything is quite complicated.
There are different types of lithium carbonate: lower-grade material is used in the ceramics and glass industries, for example, and higher-grade material is used in battery production. But lithium-ion batteries are not the same. There are five main types of batteries, each using different connections lithium.
No exchange trading, no market for storage systems - only the spot market remains, and that is very limited.
This means that companies like CRU and Macquarie, when assessed market value lithium are based primarily on published information on trading volumes. This statistical exercise, already a difficult one, is made more difficult by the complexity of the lithium production chain.
The bottom line is that lithium pricing remains extremely opaque.
Oligopoly
This opacity is a direct result of the way the lithium market is structured. Just four manufacturers control about 85% of supplies, Macquarie analysts write.
Chilean company SQM ( NYSE: SQM) and US-based FMC Corp (NYSE: FMC) and Albemarle Corp (NYSE: ALB) dominate lithium mining, extracting the metal from salt lakes in Chile and Argentina. Albemarle is also developing a mine in Nevada.
The fourth manufacturer is the Australian company Talison, ( TSE: TLH) which produces lithium at the Greenbushes mine in Western Australia. But it can hardly be called independent: 49% of its shares are owned by Albemarle, and the remaining 51% by China's Tianqi Lithium (SHE: 002466). Almost all of the metal it produces is sent to China for processing.
This oligopoly poses a real problem for Tesla, which will need about 27,000 tons of lithium carbonate per year to reach its goal of 500,000 vehicles per year by the end of 2018. This volume, Macquarie estimates, represents up to 16% of global consumption last year.
Apparently, Tesla is relying on a new generation of manufacturers. The company has signed offtake agreements with Bacanora Minerals (CVE: BCN), which operates a mine in Mexico's Sonoran Desert, and Pure Energy Minerals (CVE: PE), which operates the Clayton Valley mine in Nevada.
Interestingly, when announcing the deal, both companies said that lithium would be supplied cheaper than the current market price, since Tesla's goal is to reduce the cost of its batteries.
The future is unclear
Plenty of other companies are betting on the expected lithium boom, hoping it will pay off many times over.
But does the world really need more lithium?
Lithium (lat. Lithium; denoted by the symbol Li) is an element of the main subgroup of the first group, second period periodic table chemical elements D.I. Mendeleev, with atomic number 3. The simple substance lithium is a soft alkali metal of a silvery-white color.
According to its geochemical properties, lithium belongs to the large-ion lithophile elements, including potassium, rubidium and cesium. The lithium content in the upper continental crust is 21 g/t, in sea water 0.17 mg/l. The main lithium minerals are lepidolite mica - KLi1.5Al1.5 (F, OH)2 and spodumene pyroxene - LiAl. When lithium does not form independent minerals, it isomorphically replaces potassium in widespread rock-forming minerals.
Lithium deposits are confined to rare-metal granite intrusions, in connection with which lithium-bearing pegmatites or hydrothermal complex deposits also develop, containing tin, tungsten, bismuth and other metals. Specific rocks are ongonites - granites with igneous topaz, high fluorine and water content, and exceptionally high concentrations of various rare elements, including lithium. Another type of lithium deposits is the brines of some highly saline lakes.
Lithium deposits are known in Russia (more than 50% of the country's reserves are concentrated in rare metal deposits Murmansk region), Bolivia (Uyuni Salt Flat is the largest in the world), Argentina, Mexico, Afghanistan, Chile, USA, Canada, Brazil, Spain, Sweden, China, Australia, Zimbabwe, Congo.
Reserves at lithium deposits in 2012, thousand tons *
* US Geological Survey data
Chile and Argentina produce the largest portion of the world's lithium from lake salts, together accounting for approximately 46% of all lithium production (FMC, Rockwood and S.Q.M.). Talison Lithium supplies ~34% of the world's lithium and ~65% of the lithium mineral spodumene. In terms of global demand, lithium supplies are abundant and existing producers are expected to plan to expand production to meet growing demands.
Electric vehicle developers are looking for more diverse and specialized sources of lithium carbonate. End users have entered into agreements with other mining companies to avoid dependence on only two main sources: Chinese lithium conversion markets (Talison) and S.Q.M. Lithium batteries require very high purity lithium carbonate (greater than 99.5%), very consistent quality and a certain level of impurities. Because lithium represents a relatively small percentage of the total cost of producing a lithium battery, end users are looking to establish long-term relationships with suppliers. Electric vehicle developers are investing heavily in new technologies and need certainty of supply that should not be affected by political factors or the suspension of individual projects.
Toyota Tsusho, Mitsubishi, LG International, Mitsui, Magna, GS Caltex, and KORES have all formed joint ventures or have manufacturing partners to ensure a reliable supply of lithium to meet electric vehicle development plans.
While electric vehicle developers are looking to expand and diversify lithium production, the number of new lithium projects needed is limited. Global lithium reserves are abundant relative to current consumption levels and projections. Therefore, existing producers have sufficient opportunities to meet market demand in the next five years.
S.Q.M., Rockwood and FMC produced approximately 46% of the world's lithium in 2010, but have production capacity of approximately 54% of global capacity. Talison's lower cost production and broad customer base place it in a prime position among spodumene producers. Moreover, taking into account geographical boundaries that existing producers have, Talison, which supplies most of the lithium in Chinese markets, has influence in the fastest growing part of the market.
Taking into account the lithium projects under construction, launching and being studied and their productivity, companies predict the possibility of an oversupply of lithium in the global market relative to demand for the metal. If too many of these new projects reach production stage in the near future, it will most likely result in falling prices and/or high-cost businesses ceasing production. Due to the significant capital costs of establishing and developing new capacity, experts predict that few new projects will reach commercial production stage in the next few years, and as a result, prices are likely to remain at current levels. Barriers to market entry for new projects will be rising costs, production challenges and a lack of joint ventures with buyers to prevent other developers from reaching commercial production stage.
With the market growing at 7-12% annually between 2016 and 2020, the lithium market is expected to experience a shortage production capacity, and additional new production sources may be required.
* US Geological Survey data
Lithium is used in a large number of industries due to its unique high electrochemical potential, low coefficient of thermal expansion and catalytic properties.
Global lithium consumption increased from 12,800 t in 2000 to 22,600 t in 2008, a 6% annual average. Demand fell by approximately 13% in 2009 due to the global economic crisis, but fully recovered in 2010 to approximately 24,500 tonnes. The glass and ceramics industries are the largest consumers of lithium, approximately 31% of total consumption, followed by batteries at 23 % (compared to 6% in 2000). Major automakers predict that the hybrid and full electric vehicle sector will grow steadily and reach a car market share of 10-30% by 2020. As a result, demand for lithium will increase by 100-200% over the same period of time. In addition to strong growth in the battery and electric Vehicle, All other applications of lithium are also expected to expand in line with economic growth in the world as a whole.
Lithium consumption can be divided into lithium minerals (24% of consumption) and lithium chemicals (76% of consumption). Lithium minerals are sourced from spodumene deposits, and are used directly in final products, such as glass, ceramics and casting. Lithium chemicals are produced from precipitates falling out of solution, or through the conversion of lithium minerals to chemical products, and are used in batteries, pharmaceuticals, air processing, fats and other applications.
The glass and ceramics industries account for the largest portion of all lithium consumption (~31%). Small additions of lithium during glass production facilitate its processing and reduce energy consumption by 5-10%. The use of lithium in glass production is estimated at 25% of total consumption or more than 6,000 tons. Increasing energy costs and production methods Upgrades are leading to increased use of the metal in the sector, resulting in above-average annual growth in lithium consumption in the glass industry. Similarly, energy savings are being achieved in the production of aluminum, plastics and rubber products, presenting the potential for higher annual growth rates in these areas as well.
The lithium battery sector has grown from 6% market share in 2000 (about 800 tons) to 23% market share in 2008 (about 5,000 tons), at a CAGR of 25%. While batteries and electric vehicles are expected to be the biggest drivers of lithium consumption growth, other uses of the metal will grow in line with the global economy.
Vehicle electrification represents the most great opportunity to increase demand for lithium. Hybrid cars, and to a lesser extent full electric vehicles, are gaining market share every year. Developing countries have the opportunity to start producing electric vehicles much faster given the large number of primary buyers (short of vehicles), newly developed infrastructure networks and governments focusing on growing pollution problems.
Production and consumption of lithium in the world, thousand tons*
| year | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 | 2011 | 2012 |
| Total production | 25.2 | 18.8 | 24.0 | 24.7 | 26.0 |
| USA | 2.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 2.0 |
| Total consumption | 22.6 | 19.2 | 24.5 | 25.9 | 26.5 |
| Market balance | 2.6 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -1.2 | -0.5 |
* Roskill data
Lithium chemicals and spondumen are not commodities; prices are negotiated between producers and end users with industry groups as well as governments. In the early 1990s, average lithium carbonate prices were approximately $4,000/t, but due to the advent of S.Q.M. market prices fell to $1,600/t within a few years.
Lithium prices gradually increased due to rising demand until the 2008 peak of ~$6,500/t. In 2009, lithium prices fell in line with the global economy and have remained relatively low at $5,000/t since then. This $5,000/t price estimate is for lower grade product (less than 99.5% purity), product or battery grade lithium carbonate (greater than 99.5% purity) sells for a premium of $500-1,000/t. New manufacturers with joint ventures and partners are expected to focus on the battery grade lithium carbonate market and gain a steady premium over the next few years. Overall, the price movement in the battery grade lithium carbonate market is expected to be relatively flat, with the long term average price being around $6,000/t. As the market moves away from excess capacity between 2016 and 2020, there is potential for prices to rise during this period. Spodumine is sold at a range of prices depending on purity, part size, and impurity level. Products can range from 4.8% Li2O (60% purity) to 7.5% Li2O (95% purity).
Spodumene is sold in two grades: technical and chemical grade. Category technical products used as raw material for the glass and ceramics industry due to its very low content iron, which can cause discoloration. Talison supplies most of the industrial lithium. Given Talison's near monopoly on production, prices are likely to increase due to rising demand.
The chemical grade of lithium concentrate is mainly high-purity Li2O, with no restriction on iron content. The market price for lithium carbonate from spondumene is $4,300-$5,300/t, in line with lithium carbonate benchmark prices. Experts do not expect a strong increase in prices for the chemical grade due to its indirect relationship with lithium carbonate prices.
One new producer entered the lithium market in 2012, and two more projects have been funded and are under construction, due to come online in 2013 and 2014. In total, these three projects could add up to 10,000 tons of lithium per year to global production by 2015. Meanwhile, expansion at existing operations continues: Talison doubled its mining capacity in 2012, and new seawater lithium production facilities being developed by FMC and Rockwood will begin operations in 2013-2014. Other companies are also expanding and are expected to add capacity in 2013.
Lithium consumption continues to grow steadily despite the global economic crisis, the Eurozone debt crisis and a slowdown in China. Rechargeable lithium batteries continue to support this growth at a high level, supported by increased production of portable consumer electronics as well as increasing battery power. Unique properties lithium also bolstered growth in other markets that were experiencing declines, including fats, glass ceramics, and metallurgical powders. Lithium consumption has already surpassed 2008 levels and amounted to 26,500 tons in 2012. Lithium demand will grow at around 8% per year in a base case scenario with the electric vehicle market becoming more and more important for growth as we move into 2017.
A variety of lithium products cater to the variety of end uses in which lithium is consumed, complicating global supply/demand balances and pricing. Prices for the major lithium products consumed by the market, such as carbonate and hydroxide, are influenced by broader global market factors and supply/demand, other products in tandem with these feedstocks and some completely independent of them, such as lithium metal and organolithium. Lithium carbonate prices increased in 2010 but remain below 2007 highs. The prospect of new supplies entering the market by companies acts as a barrier to price increases despite increasing demand.
Due to the fact that lithium-ion batteries are one of the most popular types of energy sources today, it would be nice to pay attention to the issue of the volume of lithium resource reserves on the planet. Currently the majority latest models Electric cars, electric motorcycles, scooters and electric bicycles are equipped with lithium-ion batteries - largely for the simple reason that this type of battery can actually provide good performance at a relatively low weight.
As large-scale production of electric vehicles is directly linked to the issue of increasing demand for lithium energy sources, many people are wondering about the level of lithium reserves in the world and the possibility of depleting the much-needed material in battery production. Lithium (Li) is the lightest metal belonging to the group of alkali metals; the third element of the periodic table, used in the production of rechargeable batteries for modern mobile phones, laptop computers, electric vehicles. In the manufacture of chemical current sources, it is used in the form of metallized lithium or a lithium compound with other elements. Lithium is a fairly common element on the planet, but at the same time a rare element. This discrepancy in the statement is justified by the fact that most of the lithium existing on the planet cannot be mined by methods accessible to humans. Seawater contains billions of tons of highly enriched dilute lithium, but its extraction is quite labor intensive. modern society process. Concentrated lithium rocks are formed, as a rule, in the upper layers of the Earth in the form of lithium silicate, lithium carbonate, and lithium chloride. The lithium content in the upper continental crust of the Earth is 21 g/t. In recent years, the consumption of lithium carbonate, the main raw material for lithium-containing products, has almost doubled. Unlike previous generations of batteries, lithium-based batteries have allowed electric vehicles to travel significantly longer distances on a single charge. Majority modern sources agree that most of the world's lithium reserves are concentrated in the central part of South America, mainly in Bolivia - the poorest country in the region, and not just anywhere, but under the vast Bolivian desert. Until now, this desert is one of the most remote and inaccessible plateaus on our planet. However, despite all its inaccessibility, this particular area globe attracts dozens and hundreds of scientists' eyes, since huge reserves of lithium are stored under its vast salt cover. There are no living creatures in these places, as well as no green vegetation - salt makes life here impossible, only on the edge of the desert can you see several government mines extracting salt brine from underground. It is from this brine that precious lithium is obtained by evaporation, one of the most valuable metals today, capable of driving all modern electric transport equipment. Unfortunately, lithium mining in the desert region of Bolivia is not without obvious disadvantages, as it causes irreparable damage to the landscape of the planet’s salt region. Expanding the extraction of this element in Bolivia could completely destroy not only a unique area of the planet, but also cause irreparable harm to the population of nearby settlements, as it will lead to the depletion of the already meager water supply system. Growing demand for the lithium resource is fueling a race to find new locations for the third element. A number of companies are exploring the most remote corners of the globe, hoping to find new, previously unexplored lithium reserves. I would like to note that various organizations often publish rather contradictory data on the volume of lithium resource reserves in the world. Digital data from different information sources on the amount of world lithium reserves differ quite significantly from each other.
Estimated world lithium reserves in tons
| A country | Information source No. 1 | Information source No. 2 | Information source No. 3 | Information source No. 4 |
| Argentina | no data | 2 000 000 | 2 710 000 | 6 000 000 |
| Australia | 220 000 | 260 000 | 262 800 | 1 603 000 |
| Austria | no data | no data | 100 000 | 113 000 |
| Bolivia | 5 400 000 | 5 400 000 | 5 500 000 | 5 400 000 |
| Brazil | 910 000 | 910 000 | 85 000 | 85 000 |
| Finland | no data | no data | 14 000 | 13 000 |
| Spain | no data | no data | no data | 72 000 |
| Ireland | no data | no data | no data | 13 000 |
| Canada | 360 000 | 360 000 | 255 600 | 1 073 000 |
| Congo | no data | no data | no data | 1 145 000 |
| Chile | 3 000 000 | 3 000 000 | 6 900 000 | 7 520 000 |
| China | 1 100 000 | 1 100 000 | 3 350 000 | 6 173 000 |
| Portugal | no data | no data | no data | 10 000 |
| Russia | no data | no data | 1 000 000 | 2 480 000 |
| Serbia | no data | no data | no data | 957 000 |
| USA | 410 000 | 410 000 | 5 936 000 | 6 620 000 |
| Zaire | no data | no data | 2 300 000 | no data |
| Zimbabwe | 27 000 | 27 000 | 56 700 | 57 000 |
| Together | 11400000 | 13500000 | 28500000 | 39300000 |
Chemetall reported that global lithium reserves currently stand at 28 million tonnes (equivalent to 150 million tonnes of lithium carbonate), while demand for the metal is estimated at 23,000 tonnes (122,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate). Representatives of another information source noted that the indicated figures for global lithium reserves are excessively underestimated, and in fact this metal is available on the planet in much larger quantities.
American researchers do not exclude the possibility of extracting lithium from California geothermal waters using a method developed by employees of the Livermore National Laboratory (California)
Lithium mining in the world
The largest lithium producers in the world are: Chemetall (USA / Chile), SQM (Chile), Admiralty Resources (Australia and South America) and CITIC Guoan Lithium (China). Chile and Argentina are currently the main lithium producers - 46% and 26% of world volumes, while Australian and Chinese enterprises each account for 6% of global lithium production.
Only about 20% of mined lithium is used in the manufacture of rechargeable batteries, most of which are subsequently used as power sources for mobile and portable devices.
Starting this year, Bolivia plans to increase annual lithium production to 30 thousand tons.
Recycling lithium-ion batteries
Currently, there are research papers, aimed at developing efficient and environmentally friendly ways to recycle lithium-ion batteries on a large scale. Chemetall claims that a balanced recycling mechanism would allow about 50% of the lithium from used batteries to be returned to the process - this suggests that after about 15 years of operation of an electric vehicle and its batteries fail, half of them could be removed lithium. This kind of processing will significantly solve the problem of shortage of energy sources in the future.
Demand for lithium for batteries
The popularity of lithium is primarily due to its unique electrochemical potential and low coefficient of thermal expansion. From 2000 to 2010, global lithium consumption increased from 12,800 tons to 22,600 tons.
Lithium batteries are lighter than other types of batteries and can hold a higher charge much longer than others. Depending on the type of lithium-ion battery, you can calculate the minimum amount of lithium per 1 kWh of energy stored in it. Batteries with higher average voltage levels contain less lithium per unit of stored energy (Wh are the product of the battery capacity and its average voltage in volts).
Calculating the amount of lithium required to produce a lithium-ion battery
True, some companies produce batteries with slightly different lithium content. Thus, the manufacturer “AESC”, in order to complete electric cars Renault Fluence Z.E. and Renault Kangoo Express Z.E. produces batteries with a capacity of 20 kWh and a lithium content of 3 kg, that is, they contain approximately 0.15 kg of lithium per 1 kWh of energy. During the next presentation of its products, the Chemetall company stated that its batteries, with an estimated value of 1 kWh, account for about 0.113 kg of lithium.
In general, lithium makes up only 3-4% of the total consumables required to produce a lithium-ion battery.
A lithium resource crisis: is it possible?
Scientists at Michigan State University have calculated that the lithium reserves on our planet will last at least another 100 years for use in intensive industrial glass smelting, the production of ceramics, air conditioners, batteries for mobile and portable devices, and electric vehicles. If it is possible to develop effective technology for the processing of lithium-containing batteries, which involves the possibility of secondary removal of lithium from batteries, the issue of shortage of this resource will be able to be pushed back for at least another 50 years. Lithium production by 2100 is projected to be 12-20 million tons.
Demand for batteries for electric vehicles and electric bicycles
Today, lithium-ion batteries cover 10% of the energy needs of the electric and hybrid vehicle industry. It is easy to predict that the growing popularity of lithium batteries will cause an increase in their corresponding share among the power sources of electric vehicles.
By the end of 2030, demand for lithium, used in the production of lithium-ion batteries for electric and hybrid vehicles, will reach 28,000 tons, according to Argonne National Laboratory estimates. The same information source noted that if effective methodology By recycling batteries, it will be possible to return almost half of the previously used lithium to production.
An annual production of 1 million electric vehicles with 20 kWh batteries will increase global demand for lithium up to 2-3 thousand tons per year. If sometime in the future the annual production output of electric cars with 50 kWh batteries reaches 10 million units, the demand for lithium will be 55-75 thousand tons. With the production of 10 million electric cars with a range of at least 500 km on a single charge, the demand for lithium will be 110-150 thousand tons. Given the consumption of 150-200 thousand tons of lithium per year, the reserves of this metal on our planet will last approximately 75-100 years.
Conclusions:
Today, research is being carried out around the world to find places where lithium metal is concentrated. Electric vehicle developers are constantly exploring new sources of lithium carbonate in order to reduce dependence on its main suppliers - Chile and China. It is quite possible that in the coming years it will be possible to discover new places for its localization, and it will be possible to remove tens of millions of tons of lithium, present on the planet in various forms and concentrations.
Considering all of the above, it becomes clear that an increase in demand for lithium-ion batteries and lithium will be observed over the coming years, primarily for the simple reason that the production of electric and hybrid vehicles will increase. However, there is still no certainty whether lithium-ion batteries will dominate the electric vehicle market for more than a few decades - it is likely that they will begin to compete with some other types of batteries.
