Theoretical foundations of risk management.

risk classification

There is no clearly developed risk classification. Moreover, there are over 40 different risk criteria and, accordingly, 220 types of risks, and therefore there is no common understanding in the economic literature on this issue. Exists a large number of classifications depending on the specifics of the company’s activities. Investment risks, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc. are classified separately.

Summarizing what has been said, it should be noted that economists have been dealing with the problem of risks and their classification for a long time. There are no established criteria that allow one to unambiguously classify all risks due to the specific nature of the activities of economic entities, the various manifestations of risks and their various sources. It should be noted that all classifications are very conditional, and in practice it is often difficult to draw a clear line between different risk groups.

Depending on the main cause(based on basic or natural characteristics) risks are divided into natural (fire, flood), environmental (environmental pollution), political (changes in the political situation in the country), transport (related to the transportation of goods by transport), commercial (danger of losses in process of financial and economic activity).

Under political risks is understood as the impossibility of carrying out economic activities as a result of military operations, revolution, aggravation of the internal situation, nationalization, confiscation of goods and enterprises, refusal of the new government to fulfill the obligations of the old one, deferment (moratorium) on external payments, changes in tax legislation, ban or restriction of the conversion of national currency into foreign currency payment.

Commercial risks are structurally divided into property, production, trade and financial.

Property risk– the likelihood of property loss due to theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems, etc. Production risk associated with losses from production interruption due to the impact various factors, such as destruction and damage to fixed production and working capital, introduction into production new technology and technology. Under trading risks implies a possible loss due to delay in payments during the transportation of goods, etc.

Financial risks is the probability of loss Money. Financial risks are divided into risks associated with the purchasing power of money and risks associated with the investment of capital.

Risks associated with the purchasing power of money include inflation and deflation risks, currency risks and liquidity risks. The risks associated with investing capital are divided into the risk of lost profits, the risk of decreased profitability and the risk of direct financial losses.

Inflation risk occurs when inflation rises, when cash income received depreciates. Deflationary risk occurs when deflation increases, when the price level falls, leading to a decrease in income.

Currency risks– the danger of currency losses associated with changes in the exchange rate of one currency against another. Liquidity risk is defined as the possibility of losses when selling securities or other goods due to changes in the assessment of their quality or consumer value.

Risk of lost profits– the risk of indirect (collateral) financial damage (loss of profit) as a result of failure to implement any activity (insurance, hedging, investing, etc.).

Risk of decreased profitability– the possibility of reducing interest or dividends on portfolio investments, deposits and loans. The risk of decreased profitability includes interest rate and credit risks.

Interest risks– the risk of losses for credit institutions from the excess of the interest rate to be paid over the interest to be received, as well as the risks of losses for investors due to changes in dividends, interest on bonds, certificates and other securities.

Credit risks– the risk of non-payment by the borrower of the principal debt and interest on it. Credit risks also include the possibility of non-payment of interest and amounts on debt securities. Credit risk can act as a type of risk of direct financial losses.

Risk of direct financial losses includes exchange risk as the risk of losses from stock exchange transactions (the risk of non-payment on commercial transactions, the risk of non-payment of commissions of a brokerage firm), selective risks as the risks of choosing the wrong method of investing capital, the type of securities when forming an investment portfolio, bankruptcy risk(danger as a result of the wrong choice of method of investing capital, the entrepreneur’s complete loss of his own capital and the inability to pay off his obligations, as a result of which the entrepreneur becomes bankrupt).

By area of ​​risk manifestation(type of losses or moment of deviation from the intended goal), when classifying, one can proceed from the analysis of losses, including material, labor, financial, time and special types losses.

Material types of losses are manifested in additional costs unforeseen by the entrepreneurial project or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. In relation to each individual of the listed types of losses, its own units of measurement are used. It is most natural to define material losses in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resource is measured, that is, in physical units weight, volume, area, etc.

However, it is not possible to bring together losses measured in different units and express them in one value. You cannot add kilograms and meters. Therefore, it is inevitable to calculate losses in value terms, in monetary units. For this loss in physical dimension are converted into a cost dimension by multiplying by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For material resources whose value is known, losses can immediately be assessed in monetary terms. Having an assessment of the probable losses for each of the individual types of material resources in value terms, it is possible to actually bring them together, while observing the rules of action with random variables and their probabilities.

Labor losses represent losses of working time caused by random, unforeseen circumstances. In direct measurement, labor losses are expressed in man-hours, man-days or simply hours of working time. The translation of labor losses into value, monetary terms is carried out by multiplying labor hours by the cost (price) of one hour.

Financial losses - This is direct monetary damage associated with unforeseen payments, payment of fines, payment of additional taxes, loss of cash and securities. In addition, financial losses may occur in the event of shortfall or non-receipt of money from the intended sources, non-repayment of debts, non-payment by the buyer for products supplied to him, or a decrease in revenue due to a decrease in prices for products and services sold. Special types of monetary damage are associated with inflation, changes in the exchange rate of the ruble, and additional to the legalized withdrawal of enterprise funds into the state (republican, local) budget. Along with irrevocable ones, there may also be temporary financial losses due to the freezing of accounts, untimely disbursement of funds, or deferment of debt payments.

Waste of time exist when the process of entrepreneurial activity is slower than planned. Direct assessment of such losses is carried out in hours, days, weeks, months of delay in obtaining the intended result. To convert the assessment of time losses into a cost measurement, it is necessary to establish what losses of income and profit from business can result from random losses of time.

Special types of losses occur in the form of damage to the health and life of people, environment, the prestige of the entrepreneur, as well as due to other unfavorable social, moral and psychological consequences. Most often, special types of losses are extremely difficult to quantify, especially in value terms. For each type of loss, an initial assessment of the possibility of their occurrence and magnitude is made for a certain time, covering a month, a year, or the period of operation of the business. When conducting a comprehensive analysis of probable losses to assess risk, it is important not only to identify all sources of risk, but also to identify which sources predominate.

In principle, it is necessary to take into account only random losses that cannot be directly calculated or directly predicted and therefore not taken into account in the entrepreneurial project. If losses can be foreseen in advance, then they should not be considered as losses, but as inevitable expenses and included in the calculation. Thus, the entrepreneur must take into account the foreseeable movement of prices, taxes, and their changes in the course of business activities in the business plan. Only due to the imperfection of the methods used for calculating entrepreneurial activity or the insufficient development of the business plan, systematic errors can be considered as losses in the sense that they can change the expected result for the worse. Therefore, before assessing the risk caused by purely random factors, it is highly desirable to separate the systematic component of the loss from the random ones.

Risk classification is also possible upon the occurrence of a risk event(this approach combines both the cause of occurrence and the scope of manifestation of the risk, for example, the risk of loss of funds as a result of counterparties’ refusal of their obligations).

Based on the approach underlying the consideration of sources and risk factors, highlighting three stages of production and sales activities, it is advisable to divide the risks into the following groups:

– supply risks;

– production and technological risks;

– sales risks.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to other criteria.

According to the consequences It is customary to divide risks into three categories:
– acceptable risk– this is the risk of a decision, as a result of non-implementation of which the enterprise faces loss of profit; within this zone, business activity retains its economic viability, i.e. losses occur, but they do not exceed the expected profit;

– critical risk– this is a risk in which the company faces loss of revenue; in other words, the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in extreme cases, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project;

– catastrophic risk– the risk of insolvency of the enterprise; losses can reach a value equal to the property status of the enterprise. This group also includes any risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

The basis for the following risk classification is also the nature of the impact on the results of the enterprise’s activities. Thus, risks are divided into two types:

· clean– mean the possibility of a loss or zero result;

· speculative– are expressed in the probability of obtaining both a positive and a negative result.

It is obvious that the last two classifications are interrelated, with the second being more general.

According to one of the approaches expressed by V.S. Romanov, risk theory makes it possible to identify the most general risk groups 30:

1. Organizational risks: this paragraph can include risks associated with mistakes of the company’s management and its employees; problems of the internal control system, poorly developed work rules, etc., that is, risks associated with internal organization company work.

2. Market risks– these are risks associated with the instability of the economic environment: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of decreased demand for products, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.

3. Credit risks– the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations on time. These risks exist both for banks (the classic risk of loan non-repayment), and for enterprises with receivables and organizations operating in the securities market

4. Legal risks– these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the transaction; risk of non-compliance with legislation different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty cannot fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.

5. Technical and production risks– risk of damage to the environment (ecological risk); risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption to the functioning of the facility due to errors in design and installation, a number of construction risks, etc.

To one degree or another, the identified groups of risks are present in the activities of all economic entities. This basic classification is supplemented by private classifications based on the specifics of business entities.

This classification quite fully covers many risks and, accordingly, allows the most competent approach to the problem of identifying risk-generating factors and risk research.

Complementing and expanding the classification proposed by Keynes, modern science proposes to classify the economic risks inherent in business entities, highlighting:

1. Production risks.

2. Commercial risks.

3. Financial risks.

4. Investment risks.

Let's look at each of them.

Production risks- this is the opportunity to receive less profit or incur losses as a result of not effective management productivity, product quality and personnel, errors in choosing a production development strategy. This group is, first of all, the risk of reducing the economic profitability of production activities.

By production of goods we mean the process of purchasing resources (raw materials, materials, semi-finished products, work force etc.), converting them through a technological process into other goods and selling the latter for profit. The production of goods is a more complex process than their resale, since it also includes the transformation of resources (goods) from one material form to another - finished goods. Here there is also a certain shift in time from the moment of purchase of raw materials, supplies and other components necessary for the production of goods to the moment of release and sale of finished products. In economics, such a time shift is called a time lag.

Thus, production risk includes not only the seller’s risk, but also the manufacturer’s risk, which is that the economic situation on the market may change and the product will become uncompetitive. In this case, the cost of production may become such that the price of the product does not cover the costs incurred in its production. The reasons for this phenomenon can also be very diverse. This, for example, increases the price of raw materials, energy resources and transportation costs, natural disasters, drop in demand for the products offered, etc.

The main causes of industrial risk include the following:

Macroeconomic factors beyond the control of the enterprise, such as, for example, unforeseen increases in resource prices, changes in the exchange rate of the domestic currency, shortcomings in the state's monetary policy;

Insufficient efforts to study the market, weakening competition, loss of regular suppliers of raw materials and consumers of products;

Incompetent management of the enterprise, expressed in the adoption of poorly thought-out and justified decisions or, conversely, inaction in conditions when intensification of the enterprise’s efforts is necessary.

But even with a favorable economic situation on the market, poor organization of the technological process can also be the cause of unprofitable production. For example, the creation of excess reserves of raw materials and finished products deadens working capital, which in turn worsens the technical and economic indicators of production.

To assess production risk, it is necessary to calculate the dynamics of prices not only for finished products, but also for all components necessary in the production of this product, to justify the optimal organization of the production process and its management.

So, production risks are the possibility of losing less profit or incurring losses as a result of ineffective management of productivity, product quality and personnel, as well as errors in choosing a production development strategy. This group is, first of all, the risks of reducing the economic profitability of production activities caused by:

low load level production capacity, a decrease in revenue due to errors in choosing a product differentiation strategy;

• growth of implicit (alternative) costs, direct and variable costs;
• use of low-efficient factors of production;
• an ineffective system for maintaining labor loyalty, motivation to work and professional mobility;
• choosing a strategy focused not on creating competitive technological advantages, but on retaining market segments by limiting competitors’ access to it.

Commercial risks usually manifests itself in commercial activities, by which we mean the process of purchasing certain goods at one price for resale at another price in order to make a profit. As a rule, the purchase of goods and their subsequent resale occur with a gap in time. But since the situation on the goods market is changing, this is where the main reason for commercial risk arises - a product previously purchased for sale later does not find demand at the set price. The seller cannot receive the profit he expected when purchasing the product.

The reasons for this phenomenon can be very diverse - from seasonal fluctuations in supply and demand and changes in the purchasing potential of the population to natural disasters and much more. It is very difficult to predict the state of consumer demand, since it is almost impossible to take into account all the reasons for its changes.

For example, if we take into account the stages life cycle system (four stages - birth, growth, maturity, old age) engaged in commercial activities, and the competitive position of the product in the market (five situations - weak, strong, noticeable, strong, leading), we obtain a set of possible situations displayed by a matrix of 20 cells . This dimension of predicted situations leads to fundamentally irremovable uncertainty.

Thus, commercial risks are the possibility of losing profit or incurring losses as a result of the impact on sales volumes of the following events:

· reduction in the solvency of the main consumer groups;

· violation of the proportions of market equilibrium due to restrictions on competition;

· decline in business activity due to the cyclical nature of the economy and changes in the proportions of its development;

· changes in consumer behavior and attitude to price risks of market participants.

Financial risks– this is the possibility of incurring losses or losing profits as a result of the effects of inflation, changes in the exchange rate, ineffective management of profits and credit resources, and unreliable information about expected cash flows. Financial decisions are objective and accurate to the extent that the national financial market model meets the criteria of market efficiency, and to the extent that the information base about possible changes in the total expected income during the transition of the economic system from one state to another is reliable and accurate.

Financial risks arise in the process of managing the finances of an enterprise. The most common are currency, interest rate and portfolio risks.

· Currency risks:

· operating room;

· broadcasting;

· economic.

· Interest risks:

· positional;

· portfolio;

· economic.

· Portfolio risks:

· systematic;

· unsystematic.

Investment risks- this is the opportunity to receive less net economic profit or incur losses as a result of a decrease in stock potential, errors in assessing one’s own economic condition, ineffective and irrational use of capital resources and R&D aimed at creating new production capacities, market infrastructure, inventories and housing. Investment risks caused by asymmetry of economic information, violation of property rights, design errors, estimates of the optimal amount of investment, sources of financing and future revenues from the implementation of investment projects contribute to:

· growth of destructive pure risks (loss of control over resources, destruction of production complexes, equipment breakdown, damage to other market participants);

· a decrease in the amount of possible net economic profit, which was defined as a threshold (net economic profit = income - explicit costs - implicit (alternative) costs = accounting profit - implicit costs);

· reduction of return on equity capital below the normal rate of return;

· reduction of stock potential;

· direct losses and damages;

· losses during the withdrawal and movement of technological capital to other territories, industries, production;

· losses and damages associated with innovation activities.

Combining some of the classification characteristics, we can propose the following classification of risk groups inherent in the enterprise:

1. External risks.

1.1. Unpredictable risks introduced:

– measures of government influence in the areas of taxation, pricing, etc.;

- natural disasters;

– criminal and economic crimes;

– external effects: environmental, social, economic (bankruptcy of partners, clients, disruption of supplies), political (ban on activities, etc.).

1.2. Predictable external risks: – market risk (changes in prices, consumer demands, market conditions, competition, inflation, loss of market position)
– operational risk (violation of operating and safety rules, deviation from project goals, inability to maintain the operating condition of machines, equipment, structures, etc.).

2. Internal risks.

2.1. Internal organizational risks:

– disruption of work due to a lack of labor, materials, delays in deliveries, unsatisfactory conditions, changes in previously agreed upon requirements and the emergence of additional requirements from customers, errors in planning, unsatisfactory operational management of the process of implementing strategies;

– cost overruns due to disruption of work plans, ineffective supply and sales strategies, low qualifications of personnel, errors in drawing up estimates and budgets, claims from partners, suppliers and consumers;
2.2. Internal technical risks:

– changes in work technology, errors in project documentation, equipment breakdowns, low quality of supplied materials.

1. Other risks:

2. – legal;

3. – transport;

4. – risks associated with human health, etc.

– market risk;

– credit risk.

A similar approach is followed by leading Western banks, specialists from the Basel Committee, developers of analysis, measurement and risk management systems, as well as Russian specialists.

To these basic risks are added several more options, occurring in one order or another:

– business risk;

– liquidity risk;

– legal risk;

– risk associated with regulatory authorities (regulatory risk).

The last 4 risks do not appear in all developments. Thus, the risk associated with regulatory authorities is most relevant for banking organizations, therefore it is more common in areas related to banking activities. Some authors include liquidity risk in the concept of market risks.

The specificity of the Western risk classification is that in these countries there is a stable banking system, as well as developed markets: foreign exchange and securities. Thus, most of the works devoted to risk issues are inextricably linked with these institutions, as well as the bodies that regulate them.

Risk is a generalized characteristic of a situation, the process of preparing and making a decision under conditions of uncertainty.

Professor I.A. The form understands the risk of an enterprise as the likelihood of adverse consequences in the form of loss of income or capital in a situation of uncertainty in the conditions for carrying out financial and economic activities. Professor I.T. Balabanov in the most general view defines risk as a possible danger of loss arising from the specifics of certain natural phenomena and types of human activity. At the same time, he emphasizes that from an economic point of view, risk is the possibility of an event occurring that can lead to three main economic outcomes: negative, zero or positive. B. Milner and F. Liis believe that risk is the probability of an unfavorable outcome when the company does not receive the expected result. O.A. Grunin and S.O. Grunin note that “a risk factor in business is understood as the reason driving force, capable of creating danger or leading to damage or loss."

Economic essence of the category "risk";

Dependence of risk on social, political and legal factors;

The presence of uncertainty in the financial and economic activities of an organization or individual entrepreneur;

Absence or incompleteness or unreliability of information about current state the economic entity itself and its external environment;

The inability to predict with absolute accuracy the main trends in the development of market conditions;

The likelihood of receiving direct losses as a result of a specific commercial transaction;

The possibility of obtaining zero results from commercial activities, that is, no profit;

The presence of a real, but not unconditional chance of obtaining a positive result, that is, profit;

Inability to accurately determine the expected economic result of a planned commercial operation.

Structurally, risk can be described using the following characteristics presented in Figure 1.

Danger is a potential threat of damage or other form of risk realization, which is determined by the specifics of the object, the characteristics of the risk situation and the nature of the specified damage. This characteristic reflects the interaction of two main elements:

The bearer of risk, that is, the object or subject in relation to which this risk is assessed;

The environment in which the risk carrier lives and which can provoke the realization of the risk.

Hazard is a key characteristic of risk. It determines exposure to risk. Exposure to risk is a characteristic of a situation that is fraught with the occurrence of damage or another form of risk occurrence.

Figure 1 - Risk characteristics

Vulnerability expresses the degree or intensity with which damage of various sizes can occur in relation to the object in question, that is, the corresponding danger can be realized. Essentially, vulnerability involves identifying the influence of various factors on the magnitude of the risk. In practice, vulnerability is often proportional to the observation time of the subject at risk.

The interaction of this risk with other risks has a significant impact on it. This characteristic involves considering a group of risks. The relationship of risks is understood in the broadest sense of the word. Risk interaction analysis can influence the understanding of the hazards to which the objects under study are exposed.

The following types of risk are distinguished, presented in Figure 2.

Figure 2 - Types of risk

Production risks are associated with the implementation of any type of production activity. Sometimes production and economic, production and technical, production and technological risks are distinguished, based on the specifics of the production process.

Innovation risks are associated with the likelihood of losses arising when an enterprise invests funds in the production of new goods and services, as well as during the development, development and implementation of technological, organizational and other innovations.

Financial risks are the risks of the probability of loss of funds in the process of carrying out financial activities by an enterprise.

Commercial risks occupy a special place in the classification system. They arise in the process of selling goods and services and are caused by the likelihood of loss of resources, loss of income or the emergence of additional costs as a result of commercial transactions. risk competition conditions demand

Information risks are caused by the danger of losses due to errors in the collection, analysis, control and regulation of the information base of the enterprise.

Social risks are associated with the ineffective organization of social infrastructure and deficiencies in ensuring the safety of workers.

Environmental risks are caused by violations of established norms, environmental protection and life safety standards.

Political risks are risks of the external environment. These include: currency and tax risks.

The risk classification is shown in Figure 3.

By type of object, risks associated with:

With property (property). Such risks occur quite often and are easily expressed in monetary terms. Risk assessment is based on the actual value of the property. Features of specific risks depend on the type of property: real estate, movable, intangible assets;

With income. These are quite specific risks, since they arise only in the context of income generation or distribution. These risks are assessed based on a comparison of mutually exclusive alternatives for possible future income generation, which makes their analysis difficult;

With staff. These risks are often of a non-economic nature, so they are difficult to assess in monetary terms. Such an assessment is limited only by the magnitude of the negative financial consequences;

With responsibility. The corresponding risks are determined by the liability arising in connection with the risk of damage to persons who are not yet known at the time of risk assessment. This makes it very difficult to assess such risks.

Figure 3 - Risk classification

Depending on the composition of the outcomes of possible risk realizations, the following are distinguished:

Pure risk, in which all outcomes, except for maintaining the current situation, are associated with negative consequences;

Speculative risk, that is, a risk whose outcomes are associated with both negative and positive consequences.

Based on the location of the risks, the following risks are identified:

Internal, that is, those that are related to the organization of work of the company under study or the activities of the person being studied;

External, that is, risks that are determined by external circumstances.

Based on the degree of dependence of damage on the initiating event, the following are distinguished:

Primary risks - directly related to an adverse initiating event;

Secondary risks - caused by the consequences of an unfavorable initial event.

Risks can arise at different levels of the economy. In accordance with this criterion, the following classification can be used:

Risks arising at the level of the national economy;

Risks arising at the level of administrative, economic and regional entities;

Risks arising at the level of an individual business entity (company);

Risks arising at the level of structural divisions;

Risks arising at the level of an individual workplace.

Based on the degree to which the time factor is taken into account, the following risks are distinguished:

Perpetual, which have no time limits;

Urgent, among which, in turn, we can distinguish long-term and short-term risks.

Depending on the vulnerability over time, the risks are:

Static, that is, risks that do not depend on time;

Dynamic, that is, risks that change over time.

By the nature of the influence on various objects we can distinguish:

General risk is a risk that affects various objects, sometimes causing negative consequences of a different nature;

Private risk is a risk affecting an individual object or person.

According to the degree of predictability of risk there are:

Predictable (predictable), which can be foreseen based on economic theory or economic practice, but it is impossible to predict the moment of their manifestation;

Unpredictable (unpredictable), about which nothing is yet known, therefore it is impossible to assess their impact on the degree of risk.

Based on the frequency of occurrence of damage, the following risks are distinguished:

Rare risks, which are characterized by a low frequency of risk occurrence, that is, a low probability of damage occurring;

Risks of medium frequency, which are characterized by the average frequency of risk occurrence, that is, the average probability of the risk occurring;

Frequent risks, which are characterized by a high frequency of risk occurrence, that is, a high probability of damage occurring.

Depending on the possibility of insurance, the following types of risks are distinguished:

Insured risks;

Uninsurable risks.

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ABSTRACT

RISK CLASSIFICATION

Introduction

The existence of risks as an integral part of business activity has led to the need to develop specific methods and techniques for identifying them during adoption and implementation management decisions. Enterprises operate in different competitive environments, having different internal environments, levels of production potential, personnel, etc. In this regard, each enterprise faces risks that are directly inherent only to this company and associated with the specifics of production, technological, commercial, financial and other types of activities. It is important to identify them in a timely manner and determine the likelihood of occurrence, time of occurrence, as well as possible damage. Risk management methods, which are widely used in banking, are considered as a tool for enterprise management. Many of these methods can be used to reduce risks in the activities of companies in various industries and types of business. Today, budgeting is rightfully considered one of the most progressive ways to improve business efficiency. A lot of scientific research and specialized literature are devoted to the organization of the budget process in enterprises. The benefits of budgeting are obvious. Therefore, many enterprises have already implemented or are planning to introduce appropriate corporate governance methods. It is this circumstance that is the key point in resolving the issue of organizing risk-oriented enterprise management. Risk management requires a certain level of development of corporate culture and corporate governance bodies, much similar to that required for the successful organization of the budget process. This is quite logical, since budgeting itself can be considered as a method of managing one of the main risks of enterprise activity - strategic risk. The implementation of the budget process, as well as the organization of the risk management system, often requires revision organizational structure enterprises, procedures for making management decisions, as well as certain work to improve the qualifications of personnel (including middle and senior managers) and even recruiting new employees - specialists in this field. Moreover, setting up budgeting can be considered as the first step towards the implementation of risk-oriented enterprise management, providing a good basis for further development, since it presupposes the fulfillment of a number of similar conditions.

The goal of entrepreneurship is to obtain maximum income with minimal capital expenditure in a competitive environment. The implementation of this goal requires a comparison of the size of capital invested (advanced) in production and trading activities with the financial results of this activity. At the same time, when carrying out any type of economic activity, there is objectively a danger (risk) of losses, the volume of which is determined by the specifics of a particular business. The purpose of this test:

The concept of risk, types of risks

The risk factor as the most important component of the entrepreneurial function was most fully developed by the American economist Frank Knight. He did not associate the emergence of entrepreneurial income with any type of risk. The risk measured by the probability distribution should be classified as insurable in advance. Such risk can be factored into initial investment decisions and becomes, in the words of F. Knight, a “fixed cost element” in the form of insurance. Therefore, such a risk is not an uncertainty factor for the entrepreneur and, accordingly, serves as the reason for his profit or loss. Risk, according to F. Knight, is the objective probability of a particular event and can be expressed quantitatively, in particular in the form of a mathematically probabilistic distribution of income. The greater the probability of a standard deviation from the expected value with such a distribution, the lower the risk, and vice versa. At the same time, there is uncertainty, meaning that the expected income can in principle be obtained, but the probability of such an event cannot be measured or calculated. F. Knight considered such situations to include, for example, the inability to predict the behavior or direction of consumer demand. To understand the nature of entrepreneurial risk, the relationship between risk and profit is fundamental. Adam Smith, in his Inquiries into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations, wrote that the achievement of even an ordinary rate of profit is always associated with greater or lesser risk. It is known that an entrepreneur is not guaranteed to make a profit; the reward for his time, effort and abilities can be either profit or loss. An entrepreneur shows a willingness to take risks in conditions of uncertainty, since along with the risk of losses there is the possibility of additional income. I. Schuimpeter in the book "Theory economic development" writes that if risks are not taken into account in the economic plan, then they become, on the one hand, a source of losses, and on the other, profits. You can choose solutions that contain less risk, but the resulting profit will also be less. Thus Thus, we can conclude that the profits and losses of the entrepreneur are the consequences of the risk and uncertainty accompanying his decisions.The profit or income itself depends on the difference between the well-determined purchase price of production factors or goods and the uncertain price at which they or the resulting product can be purchased sell.

Risk objectively constitutes an inevitable element of making any business decision due to the fact that uncertainty is an inevitable characteristic of business conditions. At the moment of making a decision, it is not always possible to obtain complete and accurate knowledge about the distant environment for the implementation of the decision, about all the existing or potential internal and external factors.

Risk classification

The effectiveness of risk management organization is largely determined by their classification, which creates opportunities for effective application appropriate methods and techniques of risk management. Natural risks include the risks of natural disasters such as earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, typhoons, lightning strikes, volcanic eruptions, etc. Technogenic risks are associated with human economic activities. Mixed risks are events natural character resulting from human economic activity. Pure (simple) risks, or static ones, almost always cause damage to the enterprise, that is, they are associated only with losses for business activities. This is the risk of loss of real assets due to property damage or unsatisfactory organization. Speculative risks, or dynamic ones, are the risks of unforeseen changes in the cost estimates of the company’s management decisions, as well as changes market relations or political circumstances. They are characterized by the fact that they can be associated with both losses and additional profits in relation to the expected results. The main causes of external and internal risks are presented in Table 1.

Table 1. Main causes of external and internal risks.

	Main causes	Direction object
	External risks
Rhinestone	Instability of state power, features of state legislation, nationalization, etc.	Property, property
Foreign exchange	Changes in exchange rates, foreign exchange regulation	Property interest
Tax	Change tax policy, tax rates	Property interest
Force majeure	Natural disasters, wars, revolutions, coups
	Internal risks.
Organizational	Low level of organization, errors in planning, forecasting, weak regulation, poor organization of employee work, etc.	Property, property interest, person
Resource	Lack of inventory, supply disruptions, insufficient workforce qualifications, lack of safety margin for resources	Property, property interest, person
investment	Risks of real investment: interruptions in the supply of building materials, errors in the development of an investment project, construction or reconstruction, unsuccessful choice of construction location. Portfolio risks: changes in contract terms, errors in choosing investment objects, incorrect selection of financial instruments	Property, property interest, person
Credit	non-repayment of debt and interest on it, failure to comply with the terms of the loan agreement, involuntary bankruptcy of the borrower, change in the solvency of the borrower	Property interest
Innovative	Wrong choice of innovations, incorrect calculations, application of scientific and technical innovations	Property interest
Legal risks	Licenses used, patent rights, contract failures, external litigation, internal litigation	Property, property interest, person

Production risks are risks characteristic of production activities and associated with losses from stopping production for various reasons, as well as with inadequate use of equipment and technology, fixed and working capital, production resources and working time.

Financial risks are risks associated with the likelihood of loss of financial resources (cash). Financial risks are divided into two types: risks associated with the purchasing power of money and risks associated with investing capital

(investment risks, credit risks, risks of direct financial losses). Based on the type of losses, financial risks are divided into direct property risks and risks associated with obligations, i.e. the risk of losses due to the fault of competitors, employees or partners due to changes in the conditions for fulfilling obligations.

Property risks are risks associated with the possibility of loss of property for various reasons: theft, sabotage, negligence, overvoltage of technical and technological systems, damage, etc.

Commercial risk is understood as the risk associated with business activities aimed at obtaining maximum profits and arising in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by the enterprise.

Social risks are directly related to the life, health and working capacity of the enterprise’s employees, as well as their personal characteristics and working conditions. risk capital financial

Entrepreneurial risk is associated with random losses of business profits. Losses in business activities are divided into material, labor, financial, time losses and special types of losses. Material losses are manifested in additional costs or direct losses of equipment, property, products, raw materials, energy, etc. Material losses are measured in the same units in which the amount of a given type of material resource is measured, i.e. in physical units of weight, volume, area, etc., as well as in value terms, in monetary units. To do this, losses in the physical dimension are converted into costs by multiplying it by the unit price of the corresponding material resource. For a sufficient amount of material resources, the cost of which is known in advance, losses can be immediately assessed in monetary terms.

Literature

1. RISK MANAGEMENT OF ORGANIZATIONS (textbook) O.A. Firsova (Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor of the Department of Entrepreneurship and Marketing, Federal State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "State University - UNPC")

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The essence of business risk and its classification. Objective and subjective reasons for business risks. Definition and functions of business risk. Classification of business risks. Risk mitigation techniques.

In modern market conditions, there is always a need to assess possible risks for the effective management of human resources, to reduce losses from them and compensate for their negative consequences.

The concept of risk includes an uncertainty factor, which is based on three important reasons. This is ignorance, chance and opposition. Therefore, uncertainty is the main, absolutely natural reason for the occurrence of any type of risk.

Risk is a certain probability of the occurrence of unfavorable factors, as a result of which both material losses (loss of funds, property, etc.) and physical ones are possible. This includes short-term loss of health, physical and mental injuries, etc.

Any human activity is at risk. Risk contains some elements that convey its basic essence: the possibility of achieving a goal, the possibility of deviating from it, the possibility of receiving in return various losses as a result of adverse external and internal influences. An example of the occurrence of risky circumstances can be force majeure factors. These are both unpredictable disasters) and predictable ones. The classification of risks is very important for making management decisions, since the problem of their occurrence and behavior has been little studied. And in our rapidly changing world, it is very, very difficult to foresee and accurately calculate the impact of risk factors on business processes and possible losses.

The classification of risks is divided into separate types according to the type of supposed danger, according to the various areas of their manifestation, according to the sources of occurrence, according to the amount of possible damage, according to the temporary nature of the manifestation, according to the degree of possible insurance and foresight, according to frequency, according to the time of manifestation, etc.

Based on the type of perceived danger, the classification of risks is divided into separate types. These are man-made, natural and mixed risks.

According to the areas of their manifestation, risks can be divided into: environmental, political, social, commercial and professional.

By possible sources risks are divided into: external (market) and internal (specific), which have different frequency of occurrence.

Based on the amount of possible damage and visible financial losses, risks are divided into: economic, in which a significant loss of capital is possible, risks in the form of, etc.

Moreover, these risks are also divided according to their critical level. Risks can be acceptable, critical and catastrophic

According to the possibility of forecasting and insurance, according to frequency, risk factors are divided into predictable, insurable and unpredictable, and uninsurable, high, medium and small.

Depending on the time of manifestation, risk circumstances can be permanent or temporary.

But, despite all this, some types of risks can be managed and it is very important to study them, research them and try to predict them, use everything possible methods to exclude the possibility of their harmful effects. Classification of risks makes it possible to examine them in detail and study them in order to further counter them. Risk management must, first of all, be reasonable and carefully considered, since sometimes a person’s entire social life is at stake. This includes finances, career, emotional well-being, etc. Moreover, their loss can have a very adverse effect on both the entrepreneur himself and his close people. After all, practically without his own society modern man will not be able to survive as an individual. Risk management is expressed in the adoption of certain methods when doing business. The policies that exclude and anticipate various unfavorable circumstances include the policy of risk acceptance, risk reduction, insurance, diversification and limiting the size of the transaction. Therefore, by anticipating possible risk situations, entrepreneurs try to avoid any negative consequences for your business in the form of bankruptcy and insolvency, which is very important. After all, the main thing is to obtain maximum profit.

In the course of their activities, entrepreneurs are faced with a combination of various types risks that differ from each other in place and time of occurrence, the totality of external and internal factors, influencing their level and, consequently, the method of their analysis and methods of description.

As a rule, everything types of risks are interconnected and influence the activities of the entrepreneur. Moreover, a change in one type of risk can cause a change in most others.

Risk classification means the systematization of a variety of risks based on some signs and criteria that make it possible to combine subsets of risks into more general concepts.

The most important elements underlying the risk classification are:

• time of occurrence;
• main factors of occurrence;
• nature of accounting;
• the nature of the consequences;
• sphere of origin and others.

Based on the time of occurrence, risks are divided into retrospective, current and future risks. Analysis of retrospective risks, their nature and methods of mitigation makes it possible to more accurately predict current and future risks.

According to the factors of occurrence, risks are divided into:

• Political risks- these are risks caused by changes in the political situation affecting business activities (closing borders, ban on the export of goods, military actions on the territory of the country, etc.).
• Economic (commercial) risks- these are risks caused by unfavorable changes in the economy of an enterprise or in the economy of a country. The most common type of economic risk, in which private risks are concentrated, are changes in market conditions, unbalanced liquidity (the inability to timely fulfill payment obligations), changes in the level of management, etc.

By the nature of accounting, risks are divided into:

• External risks include risks not directly related to the activities of the enterprise or its contact audience ( social groups, legal entities and (or) individuals who show potential and (or) real interest in the activities of a particular enterprise). The level of external risks is influenced by a very large number of factors - political, economic, demographic, social, geographical, etc.
• Internal risks include risks caused by the activities of the enterprise itself and its contact audience. Their level is affected business activity enterprise management, choosing the optimal marketing strategy, policies and tactics and other factors: production potential, technical equipment, level of specialization, level of labor productivity, safety precautions.

Based on the nature of the consequences, risks are divided into:

• Pure risks(sometimes they are also called simple or static) are characterized by the fact that they almost always entail losses for business activity. The causes of pure risks can be natural disasters, wars, accidents, criminal acts, incapacity of the organization, etc.
• Speculative risks(sometimes also called dynamic or commercial) are characterized by the fact that they can carry both losses and additional profit for the entrepreneur in relation to the expected result. The reasons for speculative risks may be changes in market conditions, changes in exchange rates, changes in tax legislation, etc.

Risk classification in terms of area of ​​origin, which is based on areas of activity, it is the largest group. In accordance with the areas of business activity, they usually distinguish: production, commercial, financial and insurance risk.

Production risk is associated with the enterprise’s failure to fulfill its plans and obligations for the production of products, goods, services, and other types of production activities as a result of the adverse effects of the external environment, as well as inadequate use of new equipment and technologies, fixed and working capital, raw materials, and working time. Among the most important reasons for the occurrence of production risk are: a decrease in expected production volumes, an increase in material and/or other costs, the payment of increased deductions and taxes, poor supply discipline, loss or damage to equipment, etc.

Commercial risk is a risk that arises in the process of selling goods and services produced or purchased by an entrepreneur. The reasons for commercial risk are: a decrease in sales volume due to changes in market conditions or other circumstances, an increase in the purchase price of goods, loss of goods during the circulation process, increased distribution costs, etc.

Financial risk associated with the possibility of a firm failing to fulfill its financial obligations. The main causes of financial risk are: depreciation of the investment and financial portfolio due to changes in exchange rates, failure to make payments.

Insurance risk- this is the risk of the occurrence of insurance events stipulated by the conditions, as a result of which the insurer is obliged to pay insurance compensation (sum insured). The result of the risk is losses caused by ineffective insurance activities both at the stage preceding the conclusion of the insurance contract and at subsequent stages - reinsurance, formation of insurance reserves, etc. The main causes of insurance risk are: incorrectly determined insurance rates, gambling methodology of the policyholder.

Forming a classification related to production activities, the following risks can be identified:

• Organizational risks- these are risks associated with mistakes of the company’s management and its employees; problems of the internal control system, poorly developed work rules, that is, risks associated with the internal organization of the company.
• Market risks- these are risks associated with instability of the economic environment: the risk of financial losses due to changes in the price of goods, the risk of decreased demand for products, translational currency risk, the risk of loss of liquidity, etc.
• Credit risks- the risk that the counterparty will not fulfill its obligations in full on time. These risks exist both for banks (the risk of non-repayment of the loan), and for enterprises with receivables, and for organizations operating in the securities market
• Legal risks- these are the risks of losses associated with the fact that the legislation was either not taken into account at all, or changed during the transaction; the risk of inconsistency of laws of different countries; the risk of incorrectly drawn up documentation, as a result of which the counterparty is unable to fulfill the terms of the contract, etc.
• Technical and production risks- risk of damage to the environment (ecological risk); risk of accidents, fires, breakdowns; the risk of disruption to the functioning of the facility due to errors in design and installation, a number of construction risks, etc.

In addition to the above classifications, risks can be classified according to consequences:

• Acceptable risk- this is the risk of a decision, as a result of non-implementation of which, the enterprise faces loss of profit. Within this zone, entrepreneurial activity retains its economic viability, i.e. losses occur, but they do not exceed the expected profit.
• Critical risk- this is a risk in which the company faces loss of revenue; those. the critical risk zone is characterized by the danger of losses that obviously exceed the expected profit and, in extreme cases, can lead to the loss of all funds invested by the enterprise in the project.
• Catastrophic risk- the risk of insolvency of the enterprise. Losses can reach a value equal to the property status of the enterprise. This group also includes any risk associated with a direct danger to human life or the occurrence of environmental disasters.

There are a large number of types and classifications of risks depending on the specifics of the company’s activities. Investment risks, risks in the real estate market, risks in the securities market, etc. are classified separately.