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Leonid Gorban. The folk calendar predicts a very harsh winter

Expect prolonged and severe cold in winter, strong summer storms and a rainy but warm autumn.

Disputes between practicing meteorologists, climate scientists and folk weather forecasters about whether it is possible to accurately predict the weather a year in advance have been going on for decades. The points of view are different. Yes, back in Soviet times one of the leaders of the USSR Hydrometeorological Center declared with aplomb: “The weather is chaos. How can you predict chaos a year in advance?” Since then, the opinion of meteorologists has changed, but not dramatically: the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center can only speak about the most general weather trends for the coming year. They are based on statistical data that the Central Geophysical Observatory of Ukraine has been accumulating for 136 years. It follows from them that with each decade our winters become warmer and our summers last longer. Populist enthusiasts, who for many years have been studying ancient or developing their own forecasting methods, which, in their opinion, refute the theory of stable warming, have a different opinion. Finally, fundamental science speaks of long-term circulations ( circular movements) polar air masses from high latitudes to low latitudes, and vice versa. Due to these circulations, cold and warm periods alternate. We are now heading into colder years.

CHIEF FORECASTER AND SCIENCE.“We can say for sure that both in winter and in summer periods Average temperatures are expected to be above normal as the overall warming trend continues. But this winter there will be severe frosts and thaws, and in the summer, as usual, there will be both heat and coolness with showers, exact dates which are impossible to predict,” Nikolai Kulbida, head of the Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Center, shared with us his forecast for 2017. Professor Vazira Martazinova, head of the department of climate research and long-term weather forecasts at the Meteorological Research Institute of the National Academy of Sciences, speaks about temperature “swings” throughout the year. “The winter will be unsettled. There will only be 20-25 frosty days,” Martazinova noted. - At the end of January 2017 it will be -10, February 10-11 -14, and these are the last days of winter. Then spring begins."

Populists. The most detailed forecasts folk weather forecasters: they give daily weather calculations, predict rain and heat, and calculate the average daily temperature. Over the five years of publications of such forecasts - from the late Valery Nekrasov from Dnieper, Vladimir Lis from Volyn, who, alas, is no longer involved in weather calculations, and the current national weather forecaster Leonid Gorban - “Today” has become convinced that the reliability of their predictions is very high. Gorban estimates the probability of his forecasts for all of Ukraine at 75%, which is close to the truth. “It is hardly possible to give more precise calculations for the entire country, because the regions are different: flat, mountainous, coastal and continental. And the weather is a little different everywhere. But for certain areas, the accuracy of my calculations reaches 95%,” Gorban assures. Last year he correctly predicted late spring, cool summer, early autumn almost no Indian summer, frost and snow already in November and December colder than usual. Segodnya publishes a new forecast from Leonid Gorban for 2017 (see infographic). According to the 7-year cycle of the planets of the Bryusov calendar (“Segodnya” wrote about it in detail on January 15, 2016), which Gorban uses in his calculations, the year of the Sun is coming. “Winter in the year of the Sun is cold and snowy, spring is cold at first, frosts last until March 20-25, April is cold and dry with strong winds, there is drought in May,” Gorban explained his forecast. - Summer is initially dry and hot, in July heavy rains, August is cool. Autumn is warm with heavy rainfall, from mid-November there are light frosts and snow.”

HARVEST: WITHOUT SPRING, BUT WITH CORN

Leonid Gorban claims that the years of the Sun (1996, 2003, 2010, 2017 and beyond) are usually lean years. “Only the Mercury years are worse than them (1998, 2005, 2012, 2019...). “There are several reasons for the low harvest in 2017,” explains Gorban. - First: this year’s winter extends into March and half of April, which means the sowing dates for spring and row crops (corn, sunflower) are postponed. In May, it is hot from the first days, and there is no rain for almost the entire May and the first half of June, which slows down the growth of plants. They'll go in July good rains, but it's' too late. Moreover, due to strong winds and storms in many regions there will be lodging of wheat just as the harvest begins. August will not be hot with moderate rains, but the precipitation will only benefit sunflowers and corn, which will begin to grow actively. You can’t delay harvesting them, because the first half of October is expected to be damp, and collecting good harvest it won't be possible anymore. But in September the ground will be damp, and sowing of winter crops will proceed normally.”

To what extent are Gorban’s words supported by statistics? As it turns out, there is a pattern. Thus, according to the State Statistics Service, in 1995, Ukrainian farmers collected 33.9 million tons of grain, in 1996 (year of the Sun) - only 24.5 million tons, in the next 1997 (year of the Moon) the increase again reached 35 .5 million tons, in 1998 (a lean year of Mercury) - only 26.5 million tons! The same thing happened in the next 7-year period, which fell in the 2000s: 2003, ruled by the Sun, turned out to be twice as bad in terms of grain harvest (20.2 million tons) compared to the previous and subsequent years. In 2010, the picture was better - the harvest amounted to 39.2 million tons, but less than a year earlier and a year later (46 and 56 million tons).

Agricultural market experts agree that the weather seriously affects harvest volumes, but argue that in any case, Ukraine is not in danger of famine. "If weather in spring and summer will be as predicted national weather forecaster“, they can really seriously reduce the grain harvest,” Yaroslav Levitsky, an analyst at the consulting company ProAgro, explained to us. - First of all, this applies to spring crops that are sown in the spring. But winter crops will tolerate frosts well in conditions of a cold but snowy winter. We have much more winter crops than spring crops: approximately 5 million hectares of wheat and about 1 million hectares of barley versus 0.1 million hectares and 2.5 million hectares, respectively. At the same time, the barley grown in our country is mainly feed, only a small part of it is of food and brewing quality.” According to Levitsky, the annual consumption of grain in Ukraine is about 25 million tons, of which up to 6 million tons are for food needs, so even with a low yield of 14-15 c/ha (this is half as much as last year), the harvest will be enough for with interest. But grain prices may rise. Thus, a ton of wheat in the lean year of 2012 on the domestic market cost in dollar equivalent $280-300/t, and in the last three harvest seasons its price fluctuates between $150-170/t.

WEATHER RECORDS OF UKRAINE

With the help of specialists from the climatology department of the Central Geophysical Observatory of the Ministry of Emergency Situations of Ukraine, Segodnya found out in which places and in what year climate records in Ukraine were recorded, and compared them with the world ones.

The maximum heat was recorded on July 20, 2007 in Voznesensk, Nikolaev region - +41.3 °C. But this is nothing compared to the heat in Libya - here in the city of Al-Azizia it reached +57.8 °C in September 1922.

But the severest frost of –41.9 °C in Ukraine occurred on February 8, 1935 in Lugansk. The world record is 89.2 degrees below zero at the Vostok station in Antarctica in 1983.

The most snow - 3.5 m - fell on March 25, 2006 in the Carpathians, but they did not reach the snowdrifts of 4.8 m on Mount Shasta in California (February 1959).

Most strong wind in our country it blew on December 24, 1947 on Ai-Petri - 180 km/h versus 407 km/h on the Barrow Islands in Australia in 1996.

FORECASTER-SOLNYSHKO

Leonid Gorban jokingly says that it helps him prepare weather forecasts domestic cat: a handsome Persian with an unusual nickname Sunny. “When I work, Sunny sits on the table and watches carefully,” Gorban said. - One day I made the calculations, left them on the table and went out. When I returned, I was horrified to discover that Sunny, sorry, had described them. I started redoing it - and found it in numbers gross mistake! If it weren't for the cat, the whole forecast would have been wrong. The cat also marked the sheets - and every time after that an error was discovered! Some kind of mysticism." But Nikolai Kulbida, who also has cats at his dacha, answered us that he does not consult with animals when preparing forecasts.

“Checks” calculations.

People's weather forecaster Gorban: The catastrophe will begin in 2013

God created the World and started time. And everything in the World, according to Lugansk weather forecaster Leonid Gorban, is subject to God’s plan - that is, to number. It is the method of number series that allows him to predict the weather with an accuracy of 98% for several years in advance. And not just the weather. The People's Forecaster, as Gorban is unofficially called, created his own methodology. Or rather, he did not create - rather he brought together many aspects of various sciences, primarily astronomy and theology. He himself claims that his grandfather taught him the basics of weather forecasting, Orthodox priest. Having passed on the knowledge to his grandson, he warned: “Until you are fifty, Lenya, sit silently, so that you yourself are not imprisoned, and after that you can speak. When you reach fifty dollars, there will be such confusion in the country that you can say anything.” And grandfather was right.

Prophet without honor

The family tree of Leonid Ivanovich Gorban has its roots deep in the black soil of the Poltava region. It was there, in the ancient Cossack village of Kaliberda, that a certain English baron Sir Barlet came to study the archives of the Zaporozhye Sich. Then everything developed as in novels - he fell in love with a local girl and stayed to live in Ukraine.

Sir Barlet's descendant at first “kept his head down,” as his grandfather bequeathed to him. He served in the fire department and was engaged in self-education. Every time he came to Moscow on official business, by hook or by crook he obtained books on a topic that interested him from the special depository and studied them at his leisure. It took the weather forecaster 30 years to perfect the technique. At first, the percentage of “hits” was small, Gorban believes - 70-85%, but over the years he brought it to 95-98%.

Already now, in many regions of Russia, without his forecasts, villagers do not begin to cultivate the land, sow, or harvest. Leonid Gorban can make a weather forecast for any area and warn which crops will not work this year and which will bring profit. The leaders of some regions, in particular Belgorod, order a forecast from Gorban, and then distribute it among agricultural producers, so that, as they say, even the lazy will have a harvest. They understand that the prestige and well-being of the region, and ultimately the state, depend on this. In Ukraine, things are exactly according to the Gospel saying: “There is no prophet without honor, except in his own country.”

The hydrometeorological center dismissively brushes aside questions about the people's weather forecaster. Like, this is all frivolous, the maximum forecast can be given only for 3 months, and then with errors. In general, the weather can only be predicted 5 days in advance.

“During last year’s drought, I saw a story on TV in which a correspondent asked an employee of the Hydrometeorological Center why they didn’t warn about such a terrible natural disaster. She replied that the reason for this was outdated equipment. Tell me, in which country in the world there is such a device that predicts the weather a year in advance? Even in the USA, meteorologists only give forecasts for 7 days!” - Gorban is indignant.

According to him, the workers of the Hydrometeorological Center completely cynically declare that the weather is chaos.

“Hiding behind this definition from accusations of unprofessionalism, they are trying to impose this view on us. What kind of chaos can there be in nature? Everything there is very clear and logical, you just need to try to understand these laws. Our ancestors mastered the technique of long-term prediction perfectly. And the Hydrometeorological Center uses physical and statistical methods. Data is taken for the last, say, 50 years, the numbers for each day are summed up for temperature and precipitation, then divided by 50 and a statistical average is obtained. There is no smell of science here, although they present their method as scientific. The similarity model for such calculations is zero,” says the forecaster.

Number rules the world

The answer to absolutely all questions of the universe, Gorban claims, lies on the surface.

“There are number series of planets. How they got to earth is unknown to science. They were first discovered in ancient China, then somehow ended up with Pythagoras. In 1444, the German Cardinal Nicholas of Cusa, a man of powerful and insightful mind, who was engaged in the application of Pythagorean mathematics to theology, wrote a treatise “On the Three-Three-Three Divisions.” In it, he partially outlined the theory of the Circle of the Universe, the circle in which everything that exists moves. In the calculations of this theory, the number series of the planets were used. Then these series “pop up” in the research of the outstanding 18th century encyclopedist, Count Jacob Bruce. It was Bruce who used these number series to calculate long-term weather forecasts. That’s when the famous “Bruce calendar” appeared, says the weather forecaster.

Gorban claims to have the secrets of calculating these number series. Using them, back in 2003 he predicted the drought of 2009-2010.

“There are seven dominant planets - the Sun, Venus, Mercury, Moon, Saturn, Jupiter and Mars. Each of them “manages” one year in turn. Every seventh year produces similar weather and relatively similar harvests. If we talk about grains, the most fruitful years will be the years of Jupiter, and the most barren years will be the years of the Sun and Saturn. For each year, you can calculate the course of events, and not only for Agriculture, but for any aspect of life and development of a particular territory, based on the location of the planets solar system relatively straight Earth-Sun,” says the weather forecaster.

One of these methods is calculation by church calendar and by the six-pointed star of David, called the “Hexameron of Eternity.”

“Calculation using the Star of David connects the planets and real earthly time. We know that God created the World in 6 days, and on the 7th he lay down to rest. Each horn of the Star of David corresponds to what God created on that day, and in the middle of the star are the words “water”, “cloud”, “sky” and “earth”. Depending on the calculation of the number series of the planets, it can be seen: when water from a cloud falls on the word “sky”, then there will be no rain on that day, and if it falls on the word “earth” - on that day it's raining. Everything ingenious is simple. Only this solution took me 30 years, despite the fact that I was taught the basics of the craft. And it doesn’t take much education to attribute everything to chaos,” says the weather forecaster.

Riddle 2012

Number and power natural Disasters, which hit the Earth in last years, simply amazing. There is still no exact explanation for this phenomenon. However, national weather forecaster Leonid Gorban has his own version.

“We are at the very beginning of a destructive cycle that will last 187 years. Scientists have found that it is the 11.5-year cycles of solar activity that distort the neutral plane of the solar magnetic field, reaching a maximum in 187 years. The magnetic field on the Sun changes from northeast to southeast every 187 years, and then from southeast to northeast again every 187 years. There are 19 such periods in the cycle. In general, the process takes 1,366,560 days, or 3,740 years. This theory was perfectly known to the Mayans and ancient Egyptians. They tried to tell us that every 1,366,560 days there is a reversal of the solar magnetic field. This cycle is characterized by a drop in birth rates, strong ionizing radiation, as a result of which there will be many mutational changes in infants and many stillborns. The cycle is accompanied by severe droughts. If the magnetic distortion is strong enough, then the Earth can tilt on its axis. The cycle of 3,740 years ends in 2012, and in 2013 the same destructive cycle of 187 years will begin,” Gorban reports.

In his opinion, in 3113 BC. Venus tilted on its axis, but during that period the Earth, which is located at a greater distance from the Sun, avoided a pole shift and a global catastrophe. Around 627 AD the destruction returned, the Earth's magnetic field shifted. The Mayans knew that solar radiation would kill them for 187 years on either side of this time point, from 440 to 814. AD In 750 AD. Due to the shift of the poles and the resulting severe drought, the Mayan civilization disappeared. Gorban believes that perhaps this is also the mystery of the disappearance of the Scythians.

He said that in the next 20 years, floods, storms and tsunamis will only become more frequent, and there is a risk that half North America, part of England, coastal zones Ukraine will go under water. In his opinion, the main risk of such a situation for humanity is the high probability of the outbreak of a World War for the remaining territories.

There will be no split in Ukraine

Leonid Gorban claims that he can predict events in the socio-political life of any country in this way. Maybe, but he doesn't want to. According to the will of the same grandfather, who passed on the secrets of his craft to him, he forbade his grandson to get involved in politics. Several times he made election forecasts different levels- and they always came true, right down to the place that one or another candidate occupied based on the results of vote counting. However, for Polemics he made a small exception and reported on the future fate of Ukraine.

“It is no coincidence that the trident was chosen as the symbol of Ukraine. Every religion has a number that it is based on. So, three is the number of Orthodoxy. When the trident was offered as a symbol by people’s deputies and social activists from the west of Ukraine, where there are traditionally many Greek Catholics, they did not know what they were doing, and one can see God’s will in this. First, an open trident was taken - a symbol of aggression, then it was enclosed in a hexagon, and then in a circle. The circle is a symbol of stability and protection. Consequently, there will be no split in Ukraine, all of it will unite under the protection and blessing of Orthodoxy,” the forecaster said.

People's weather forecaster will predict Euro 2012

The Lugansk weather forecaster’s immediate plans include formalizing his method as scientific discovery and weather calculations for the duration of Euro 2012.

“At first I thought not to take on this for now. I thought that the football match would still take place in any weather. But events last days convinced me that it was still worth studying this period separately. You never know, maybe lightning will hit the stadium, as it did in Lugansk, or it will rain like all these days,” Gorban said.

There is nothing left until summer, and the weather still has not decided and will not take a confident course towards the warmest time of the year. It’s not clear whether you’ll be able to sunbathe on the beach in June or whether it’s better to prepare sweaters and windbreakers by this time in case it rains. I would like to believe the forecasts of hydrometeorological centers that a moderately warm and almost dry June awaits us, but still they change too often to be sure of this. And meteorologists themselves say: such forecasts for the future do not justify themselves, you should not believe them, because everything can change at any moment - the weather is too capricious and unpredictable.

Leonid Gorban: “June is warm, there is rain in July, August is cool”

Leonid Gorban makes his forecasts using a rare method. The calculation of the numerical series of the planets of the solar system, which have an impact on the climate and all life on Earth, is taken into account - depending on where a particular planet is located in a certain period. According to the national weather forecaster, the first summer month will be smooth and warm, without sudden temperature changes.

Until June 9, the daytime temperature will rise to 25-28 degrees, then drop by several degrees in short period rains that will occur on June 11-13, says Leonid Gorban. - After this, until the beginning of the third decade of the month, the weather will be hot - the temperature will rise to 30 degrees - and without precipitation.

On June 21-22, Ukraine will be covered with rain and hail in some places. True, it is unknown which regions residents should start worrying about the harvest. This weather will come to us, according to the weather forecaster, from the south, and southern influence is always noted heavy rains, storms and hail - the stripes with such precipitation are narrow, and it is impossible to say exactly who will get hit. From June 23 until the end of the month it will be hot - the mercury on thermometers will exceed 30 degrees. During this period, rain, wind and hail are possible only on June 26.

But July will be rainy - for half of the month the country will be flooded almost every two days.

Rains will interfere with the harvest - there was a year when wheat sprouted on the root and combines could not harvest it, notes Leonid Gorban. - This kind of July can happen again - July can be rainy in the years of Venus, which happen very rarely. Some periods can be combined into seven days, which means that it can rain for a whole week.

According to the forecaster, you should not go to barbecue on these days: July 4-5, 9-10, 14-16, 21-22 and 26-27 July.

Until July 8, it will be +25…+27 degrees outside, and from the 10th the temperature will rise to 29-33 plus and will remain at this level until the end of the month. A slight decrease will be associated with rains on July 22-24 - the air will warm up to +24...+26, says Leonid Gorban.

August, unlike July, will be dry - rain is predicted only on August 6-8, 21-22 and 27. There will be very little precipitation throughout the month.

Usually August is not very hot, not like others summer months, but August of Venus is no different,” the weather forecaster continues. - In the first ten days the temperature will be at 23-26 degrees, then it will rise to 28-29, and from August 17 it will drop to +24.

Vladimir Derkach: “It rains in June, it’s hot in July, it’s warm in August”

Vladimir Derkach makes his forecasts using the old folk method, based on weather data in the range from Catholic to Orthodox Christmas. Each of these 12 days corresponds to a specific month next year. The national weather forecaster has been making weather forecasts for more than 15 years and is not mistaken. This year he promises us a rainy and cool start to summer.

Summer will greet us with rains, which will fall with short breaks for almost the entire first ten days, says Vladimir Derkach. - Mid-June will be warmer than its beginning, but not too much, there will be less precipitation. And at the end of the month the real one will come summer heat. But it’s unlikely to be more than +30.

July, as Vladimir Derkach promises, will be the hottest month. Occasionally there will be heavy but short-lived rains with squalls, after which the temperature will drop. But these will be short periods. Outside it is predicted to be +30 and above.

August will also delight with summer temperatures, but without fanaticism - extreme heat not expected. Precipitation is rare short periods, without prolonged rains.

To the point

What to expect in the coming days

People's weather forecaster Leonid Gorban told us what to expect not only in the summer, but also in the coming days. And the heat is already coming to us - the temperature until May 26 will rise to +28...+30 degrees. This will be followed by two days of rain and a drop in temperature to 20-22 degrees, then again rising to 29-31 with a plus mark. The end of May will be warm and sunny.

What will autumn 2018 be like in Ukraine / facebook.com/kievtypical

Despite two Indian summers In the fall of 2018, the first snow in Ukraine will fall without waiting for the calendar winter.

Weather for September 2018 in Ukraine

People's weather forecaster Leonid Gorban predicts that the “rainy season” in September could start on September 10 and last about five days. After this, the first Indian summer will begin (until September 25), and then the Ukrainians will experience cold weather again.

Weather for October 2018 in Ukraine

The beginning of October will be warm and clear, Gorban promises. But such a meteorological idyll will not last long: already on October 3-4, severe storms with the rains. Thermometer readings will drop to +8 degrees.

“Immediately after this there will be a second Indian summer with daytime temperatures up to +20 degrees and above. It will last a week,” Gorban said.

October 14 – Feast of the Intercession Holy Mother of God- will come out dry. And from the second half of October you should expect colder temperatures and the first, short, frosts at night.

Weather for November 2018 in Ukraine

The weather in November 2018 in Ukraine will be damp: rains will begin from the first days of the month. And already on November 4-7 you should expect frost. In mid-November it will become dry and warm again, but from November 18 it will become winter-like - and this weather will remain until the end of the month. Heavy snowfall is forecast for November 27.

Previously, the people's weather forecaster predicted. At the end last month Precipitation is expected in the summer, the expert noted.

According to other sources, it will fluctuate from +20-25 degrees in the west to +28-30 degrees in the south and southeast. In the central regions during the day the temperature will remain at +26-28 degrees.

What will the weather be like next year, how hot is the summer expected and Cold winter, will tell you tochka.net .

People's weather forecaster Leonid Gorban shared his comments about the weather for the entire 2018 on the Segodnya website.

According to him, if December was mostly snowless, and New Year passed with above-zero temperatures, this is no reason to be upset - winter will still delight us with snow and threaten with serious frosts, but summer is expected to be quite warm.