Valery Dmitrievich Nightingale Professor MGIMO. "take away the nightingale and everything will be fine"

Political scientist, Doctor of Historical Sciences, Professor of the Department of Advertising and Public Relations, MGIMO Valery Solovey wrote on his Facebook page that he was leaving the university for political reasons: " Personal and public. Today, I submitted a voluntary resignation from MGIMO, where I worked for 11 years. For political reasons, the institute no longer wants to do business with me. I am sympathetic to this reluctance. And I will be grateful if henceforth they will in no way associate me with MGIMO ... About my plans. In the near future, commissioned by a very large European publishing house, I will begin to write a book, the subject of which I will modestly keep silent about. I will not return to teaching. Russia is entering an era of drastic changes, and I intend to take the most active part in them. stay tuned".

Friends and associates burst into words of support. Head of the Party of Change Dmitry Gudkov: " I wish you good luck and condolences to the students!". The permanent observer of "Echo of Moscow" Ksenia Larina: " It had to happen, you knew. And I am sure that you had no doubts about the choice of the path.". Bible scholar-modernist Andrey Desnitsky: " Andrey Zubov(the infamous Vlasov professor - Approx.) ceased to be needed by MGIMO five years ago, Valery Solovey only now. Looking at the foreign policy of the Russian Federation, you understand: really, why are they there?". Former member of the Central Council of the DPNI * (later - a liberal, a hater of "Vatans" and the Russian World) Alexei "Yor" Mikhailov: " Milestone, yes. I wish you success and development, further creative and political self-realization! Well, "Stay with us")))". Israeli ultrazionist Avigdor Eskin: " This is takeoff. In how many years will we see Professor Solovyov at the head of MGIMO? 3 years later? After 5 years?". Opposition actress Elena Koreneva: " Naturally. Let's wait for the book!"Poetess and coordinator of the "Republican Alternative" movement Alina Vitukhnovskaya: " Good luck!".

"Valery Dmitrievich's contract ended, and he made this independent decision - to leave of his own free will. What political reasons are meant - it makes sense to check with him", - explained RBC in the press service of MGIMO. Nightingale himself told the BBC Russian Service that the university " is most directly related"to his dismissal, while he was given to understand that the desire to end cooperation comes from" from some outside": "I was told that, for political reasons, the institute considered it highly undesirable for me to work there. In particular, I was accused of carrying out subversive activities and engaging in anti-state propaganda. This style of wording brings to mind the Soviet past.". In a conversation with" MK "he noticed that he" a new, very important stage in life begins".

Did the accusation of anti-state activity arise from scratch? What is the "epoch of drastic changes" mentioned by Nightingale? He considers the events around the "Golunov case" to be its beginning. A couple of days ago, in an interview with the opposition portal Moscow Activist, the professor said: Deserve all, from my point of view, respect for those people who took to the streets on June 12. What we are now seeing is the formation of massive new rights. This is somewhat similar to what happened in 2011, well, we will not take 2012, the dynamics there were already high. That after all, a considerable group of people are ready to leave, despite the fact that they are trying to bring down the dynamics on this, despite the fact that these people are being pressured. In other words, society is changing right before our eyes. The readiness for mobilization is much greater than six months ago. Much more. She will grow. But in order for this readiness to turn into something effective, it is necessary to practice, that is, to take to the streets. Willingness to take risks will increase when people see something new. As soon as we feel that there are several tens of thousands of us, and moreover, when these several tens of thousands behave a little more organized, and there are chances for this, that is, some kind of organizing principle appears, then the behavior of these people will be different. Not immediately, but gradually, such three or four mass actions will be required in order for people to start behaving differently, and the flip side is for the police to become afraid of them. I am talking about this quite thoroughly: there are not many police, riot police in Moscow. There really aren't many, you know? And as soon as 25-30 thousand people take to the streets who are ready to resist, who have some kind of organizing principle, the situation will change ... Already next year, not in the first half, but in the second, closer to the end, we we will see that the regional authorities will lend a hand to local protesters in order to put pressure on Moscow in this way. That's what we observed at the turn of the eighties and nineties, in 1991 for sure. And this is a practice that will be repeated, there will be nothing, personally for me, unexpected in this. All things have happened before. It's just that history has reached them a second time. We are now figuratively at the end of 1989. Feels like". The same was broadcast by Nightingale at a recent public debate initiated by libertarian Mikhail Svetov: " Now a lot has begun to change. Even the beaten-killed people from the opposition felt something else in the air. You will see this in the autumn when a group of people who are ready to do something will appear and it will appeal to everyone. Because it is clear what to do, how to do, what to say, what to demand. For the first time since 2012, and even for the first time since 1990, there was a desire for change that had not been there for 30 years, and there was a willingness to sacrifice something for the sake of these changes. Society in Russia is increasingly ready for violence".

He predicts a revolution, longs for " fire", which will lead to " re-establishment of Russia"He's completely unhappy, in the first place," aggressive foreign policy". Apparently, Nightingale intends to propose his own candidacy for the role of the "organizing beginning" of the Russian Maidan. But still he is afraid of the security forces: " I assure you that there are "enthusiasts" calling for tougher and more massive measures. They are preparing for this. Lists of those who need to be taken into custody without charge, they were ready by 2012. And they fill up. There are about 1.5-2 thousand such people in Moscow. It is believed that if these people are interned, then it will be possible to decapitate any political movement. And these "enthusiasts" complain that there is no hard line. Putin, if you like, is actually holding them back. I'm not being ironic at all. There are people who are ready to act more decisively and tougher".

It is worth recalling the main milestones in the biography of Valery Dmitrievich. He was born on 08/19/1960 in the city of Shchastya, Voroshilovgrad region, Ukrainian SSR, spent his childhood in Western Ukraine. Graduated from the history department of Moscow State University. M. V. Lomonosov, in 1983-93 he was a graduate student and employee of the Institute of History of the USSR of the Academy of Sciences of the USSR, in perestroika times he defended his thesis on the topic "The role of the Institute of Red Professors in the development of Soviet historical science and the development of problems of national history." Since 1993, he has worked as one of the leading experts of the Gorbachev Foundation. Prepared several reports for international organizations. At the same time, he completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science, where he worked as a visiting researcher.

In 2005 he defended his doctoral thesis on "The Russian Question and its Influence on Russia's Domestic and Foreign Policy (Early 18th - Early 21st Centuries)" and began to intensively establish contacts with a part of the nationalists, claiming the status of an ideologist of the National Democracy, "anti-imperialism" , " progressive, democratic national liberalism without anti-Semitism and Orthodoxy". Seriously became close to DPNI * Alexander Belov / Potkin and the Russian Social Movement of Konstantin Krylov. Seen at "Russian marches" and other events, despite the dissatisfaction of a number of nationalists with the influence " a Jew from the Gorbachev Foundation".

Since 2007, he worked at the Department of Advertising and Public Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation (taught the courses "PR and Advertising in Politics", "Fundamentals of Information Warfare and Media Manipulation", "Fundamentals of State Policy in the Information Sphere"). A constant, welcome guest of "Echo of Moscow", "Radio Liberty", "Rain" and other hostile sites.

Valery Solovey on the "Russian March":

Actively participated in the "bog" events; there are rumors that he convinced the most frostbitten wrestlers to storm the State Duma. Then he wrote on the APN website: " A revolution has begun in Russia... As world experience shows, three conditions are necessary for the victory of a revolution. Firstly, the high morale of the revolutionaries and the progressive weakening of the ability of the authorities to resist the revolutionary onslaught. We are already seeing this. The dynamics of the mass protest in Moscow and other cities is growing, while the morale and physical condition of the police and riot police are deteriorating. In a few days, the police will refuse to follow orders simply because they will not have the physical strength left. At the same time, the violence against the revolutionaries draws new people into the mass actions and increases the scale of the protest. Even the arrest of a number of street leaders is not able to reduce the intensity of the movement. Exactly the opposite, violence emanating from a morally illegitimate government only strengthens the will to win. The second condition for the victory of the revolution is the alliance of a part of the elite with the insurgent people. The elite are confused. Some of its groups are already ready to lend a hand to the revolution, but are afraid of making the wrong move. However, the first swallow appeared. State Duma Deputy, Deputy Chairman of the Security Committee Gennady Gudkov not only openly expressed solidarity with the insurgent people, but also took an active part in the December 6 protest action. This is not only a courageous, but also a wise step. The printed press is ALREADY on the side of the revolution. Soon the semi-official television channels will also talk about the revolution: at first neutrally, and then sympathetically. And this will be a sign that the elite has turned away from the “national leader” they have long hated. The third condition and, at the same time, the culmination of the revolution is a symbolic gesture that marks its victory. As a rule, this is the capture of some building associated with the former regime. In France there was an assault on the Bastille, in Russia in October 1917 - the capture of the Winter". As we know, the white ribbon revolution did not happen.

In January 2012, Nightingale headed a working group to create the opposition nationalist party "New Force" (evil tongues spoke of 2 million dollars received from the powerful five-columnists to form such a structure), on 10/6/2012 at the founding congress he was elected chairman. Many prominent members of the New Force soon went to Ukraine to participate in the Euromaidan and the genocide of the Russian population; let's name the head of the Belgorod branch of the National Assembly Roman Strigunkov (an admirer of Adolf Hitler andex-blogger with the nickname Hitlerolog, leader of the dwarf regional Russian National Socialist Movement, leader of the "Russian Legion" on the Kiev "Euromaidan"), deputy chairman of the Murmansk branch of the National Assembly Alexander "Pomor-88" Valov (who passed the path from the Murmansk Hitleriteskin parties to the punitive battalion "Azov" **) or, for example, an activist of the National Assembly, a former film actor Anatoly Pashinin (as a result, he called for terrorist attacks on the territory of the Russian Federation and joinedin the 8th separate battalion "Aratta" of the Ukrainian Volunteer Army ** Dmitry Yarosh), who enthusiastically declared: " Valery Solovey is the chairman of our New Force party. I listened to all his interviews, I'm proud of it, I read all his works!". In March 2016, Nightingale told reporters that the party " frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals".

Valery Solovey at the New Force congress:

Valery Solovey and Roman Strigunkov:

On November 29, 2017, he joined the campaign headquarters of the candidate for the post of President of the Russian Federation, business ombudsman, leader of the right-wing liberal Party of Growth Boris Titov. He supervised the ideology in this headquarters, performed the functions of a key political strategist. He was a confidant of Titov, represented him at the election debates.

Author of the books "Russian History: A New Reading", "The Meaning, Logic and Form of Russian Revolutions", "The Blood and Soil of Russian History", "The Failed Revolution. The Historical Meanings of Russian Nationalism" (co-authored by sister Tatiana Solovey), "Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals psychological warfare and media manipulation", "Revolution! Fundamentals of revolutionary struggle in the modern era", more than two thousand newspaper notes and Internet publications.

From an interview with the liberal portal Znak.com (March 2016):
"The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has there been anything like it and cannot be. All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them ... Yes, what was an anti-norm 100-200 years ago is suddenly becoming acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “hairy paw of the Antichrist” who came into this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else... I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It started not two years ago, but in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Again, this is a completely natural process. And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national self-consciousness of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed... Donbass in any situation is doomed to be a "black hole" on the geopolitical map. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something there, because no one really needs the Donbass ... Russia will never be an empire again. This was clear even in the 1990s.".

* Recognized as extremist and banned on the territory of the Russian Federation
** Terrorist group banned in Russia

Professor Nightingale regularly mentions some future decision of the Kremlin, which will inevitably lead to changes.

The activities of a statesman and politician are always judged on the basis of his finale. If the final was successful, then all his previous activities are painted in positive tones. If his final was not successful, not successful, then all his previous activities are also subjected to negative coverage. President Putin's final is yet to come, although his era is certainly coming to an end.

"I believe that in general his activities will be assessed negatively," says Valery Solovey, political scientist, historian, professor at MGIMO.

In the history of Russia, no leader has been in more favorable conditions than Vladimir Putin. Russia had no external enemies, the attitude of the West, despite all the conflicts, was generally benevolent. There were high oil prices, which favorably affected the country's budget. Society welcomed Putin, after the Yeltsin era it seemed that this was the beginning of the country's revival. And for the first seven to ten years, Putin really justified the credit of society's trust, the country's economy grew and the incomes of the population grew.

And then everything began to change when Vladimir Putin and Dmitry Medvedev conceived and carried out a reshuffle on the exchange of posts.

"And people were offended, they considered it a deception. In fact, it was a deception," says Valery Solovey.

People, no matter what country they live in, always experience psychological fatigue from the ruler, and this fatigue sets in if the ruler rules for a long time, more than ten years. Therefore, if Putin left on time, he would forever remain in history as the greatest ruler who raised Russia from its knees. And today, society evaluates the president from the point of view of the deterioration of their social position. The crisis in the country has been going on for the sixth year in a row, and for the sixth year in a row, the incomes of the country's citizens have been declining. People think with their pocket and how they will feed their children. It could have been tolerated for two years, when the president said in 2014 that you could be patient for two years, and then everything would be fine. And of course people endured. But six years in a row is too much. The fact that in any country in the world they will not keep a government that cannot cope with the crisis causes tremendous irritation in society.

"And what about in Russia? The president, having been re-elected, appoints the same government headed by the same prime minister named Medvedev, who is openly despised in the country. This is not a secret for anyone. What feelings should this cause in our people," says Valery Solovey.

And then take it and get it - here's the pension reform. This is a mockery of the people and common sense. In Russia, men in many regions do not live past the age of sixty-five. What is it? The president's rating has been falling in recent years, despite a short-term increase in popularity due to the return of Crimea. The people have already had a very large negative experience in recent years, and in the mass consciousness of people, the figure of Putin will be assessed more and more negatively.

"From the point of view of history, I say this as a historian, he will be assessed as a person who missed a unique historical chance to ensure the rapid development of Russia. Who exchanged the development of Russia, the growth of the welfare of the people for the growth of the welfare of his friends," says Valery Solovey.

In the early 2000s, as energy prices rose, the president missed an opportunity to reform the economy. His liberal entourage told him: why, look at oil prices and they will rise. Why should we develop our own industry, we will buy everything. We have enough money for everything and for stealing too. It was with such a strange conviction that the president and his entourage lived. Russia will continue to sell raw materials for a long time to come, and there is no getting around this. The question is how and where the proceeds from this are invested, who manages them.

“We will spend them so that the Rotenbergs build luxurious palaces for themselves and buy yachts, the largest in the world. 15 years ago, these people walked around St. Petersburg in sports trousers and traded small consumer goods in kiosks,” says Valery Solovey.

But how many destitute old people we have in our country, how many unfortunate people. The whole world collects money in the country for the treatment of children abroad, since the state does not have the funds for this. Here's what to spend money on. If you say that people are our main value, let's invest them in making life at least a little better and easier.

- We are talking on the day of Dzhabrailov's arrest...

Arrest already? No detention?

- So far, the detention, but the charge has been brought: hooliganism. Shot in a hotel. Four seasons. At Red Square.

Well, that's okay. I think they will let go. The maximum is a subscription. (While he was writing, he was released on a subscription. Either someone knocks on him, or he writes the script himself. - D. B.)

- But before he was generally untouchable ...

Yes, there will be no inviolable now, except for the narrowest circle. The problem is not that there are no institutions in Russia, but that a typical Russian institution - the roof - stops working. A month ago, they hinted to me that two banks were under attack - Otkritie and another one, which is considered ethnic, and that there would not be enough funds to save both. The Opening has just been rescued. So the rest of the can get ready? And there is such a roof!

- What about Kadyrov? They don't want to change it?

It has been wanted to be replaced for a long time.

- After the assassination of Nemtsov?

After the assassination of Nemtsov, he even left Russia for a while. But the idea was even earlier, even, they say, they found a replacement - but that person had not been to Chechnya for a long time and did not come up. However, for Kadyrov it would be an honorable dismissal: it was about the status of Deputy Prime Minister. But no portfolio.

- Did Chechnya know about this supposed change?

Yes. And Kadyrov, of course, knew. After all, his famous phrase that he is "Putin's infantryman" means a readiness to obey any order of the Supreme Commander-in-Chief.

Has Putin already made a firm decision to go to the polls?

Judging by the fact that the election campaign is in full swing, yes. Actually, everything became clear when meetings with young people began: the Kremlin realized that they were missing them. However, the president meets with young people not only out of duty: he seems to like to communicate with them.

- And them?

Im not sure.

- Why, I wonder: Schubert, syphilis ...

Schubert had syphilis. And there were problems with women. But still, young people are more interested in something else, and Putin does not speak their language exactly. His PR does not look brilliant at all yet: a photo shoot with a naked torso is not the most successful replica of a ten-year-old photoset.

- Do you think this is the deadline - or will it stay forever?

I think that this is not even a deadline, but a transit. He will be elected and leave according to Yeltsin's scenario in two or three years.

When Khodorkovsky gave such a forecast four years ago - just to Sobesednik - everyone laughed, but today it is almost a commonplace ...

Well, it's definitely not funny anymore. There are signs that the situation is getting out of control. How exactly it will turn out, how traumatic it will be, is still unclear: in such historical bindings there is always a colossal number of unknown variables, and they are added. There is a smooth scenario - something like a replay of December 31, 1999. There is a non-smooth but peaceful one - involving the street, but without violence. As the events of 1991 and 1993 show, the army is extremely reluctant to shoot at compatriots. Well, if, God forbid, blood is shed, then the experience of the Kyiv Maidan shows that even a peaceful revolution after the first people killed drastically changes its character. About 120 people were killed in Kyiv, and after that, the Yanukovych regime was doomed, no matter what conditions and compromises it then made. If everything goes smoothly, Putin will simply hand over power to a successor.

- Shoigu?

Unlikely. There is no complete, unconditional trust in Shoigu. It seems that the President and the Minister of Defense are very close, but the impression is that along with attraction there is some kind of psychological repulsion. Perhaps because Putin and Shoigu are similar in something very important: a certain messianism is inherent in both. At the same time, Shoigu is almost the most popular minister of Russia, which is a considerable merit of his brilliant, since the time of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, PR service. True, I will never and never believe that, despite his messianism, the Minister of Defense is capable of some kind of daring independent action.

- Rogozin?

Of course not. He probably really wanted it.

- Then who?

The security forces - both the army and the special services - are discussing Dyumin's candidacy as a foregone conclusion.

- And what is Dyumin-president?

I highly doubt his ability to hold on and keep the situation. You see, Putin's system is a system sharpened personally (I emphasize: personally!) for Putin. It's a pyramid on top, shaky but holding on. If the top is removed, the pyramid will fall, but how it falls is already unpredictable.

- And then the territorial collapse?

Lord, what kind of territorial disintegration? Why all of a sudden, where? The country is held by three, sorry for the expression, braces, each of which would be quite enough. Russian language. Russian ruble. Russian culture. The main thing is that no one is rushing out of the Russian Federation, even in Tatarstan the centrifugal forces are negligible - they can ask for some symbolic preferences at most ... Even the North Caucasus, the most dangerous region in this sense, does not understand who to stick to outside of Russia and how to live.

- And who can come to power if a successor does not hold out? Fascists?

Firstly, I would not even call them “fascists”, because they have no real ideology, no program, no organization. They are capable of giving interviews, but they are not able to build a working organization. In addition, they are now driven underground and rather demoralized. Secondly, if they are allowed to be elected to parliament, they will receive five to seven percent (this is even in the best scenario for them). And I am in favor of introducing them to the parliament - it is very civilizing and reduces the level of danger. There can be no fascism now, because everyone is too lazy. Remember real fascism: Italy, Germany - a colossal strain of forces. And now, in general, no one wants to strain, there are no ideas, and such things are not done without an idea. And those whom you call "fascists" have the whole entourage from the last century, they did not provide any qualitative novelty.

- Do you also rule out mass repressions?

What about the meaning?

- Pure pleasure.

Even the generals of the FSB will not get real pleasure from this, whether it's a personal yacht. And even more so their children. I understand why you are asking about repressions, but the Serebrennikov case is just an attempt by the security forces to show who is the boss here. So unobtrusively. And then some have already thought that they can influence the first person. No one can, and then - the first person in eternity, in History. And here and now the security forces are in control. How did they chant at opposition rallies in 2012? "We are the power here!"

- And it seemed to me that this was a dig under Surkov.

Nothing threatens Surkov. He is just inviolable, because he conducts all the difficult negotiations on Ukraine, on the Donbass.

- By the way, about Ukraine. What, in your opinion, is the fate of Don-bass?

The longer he stays outside Ukraine, the more difficult it will be to integrate him there, and the time limit, as it seems to me, is five years. After that, alienation and enmity can become difficult to overcome. As the Russian side says at the talks: if we weaken support for the Donbass, Ukrainian troops will enter there and mass repressions will begin. However, there is a certain compromise option: Donbass goes under interim international administration (UN, for example) and the “blue helmets” enter there. Several years (at least five - seven) will be spent on the reconstruction of the region, the formation of local authorities, and so on. Then a referendum is held on its status. Currently, Ukraine is vehemently rejecting the idea of ​​federalization because Russia is proposing it. And if Europe proposes federalization, then Ukraine can accept this idea.

- And no Zakharchenko?

He will go somewhere... If not to Argentina, then to Rostov.

- What do you think: in the summer of 2014, it was possible to go to Mariupol, Kharkov, then everywhere else?

In April 2014, this could have been done much easier, and no one could have defended themselves. One local high-ranking character, we will not name names (although we know), called Turchynov and said: if you resist, in two hours the troops will land on the roof of the Verkhovna Rada. He wouldn't have landed, of course, but it sounded so convincing! Turchynov tried to organize a defense, but only the police with pistols were at his disposal. And he himself was ready to climb onto the roof with a grenade launcher and in a helmet ...

- Why didn't you go? Afraid that SWIFT will be turned off?

I don't think it would be turned off. In my opinion, they would have swallowed it the same way they swallowed Crimea in the end: after all, we have the main sanctions for the Donbass. But, firstly, it turned out that in Kharkov and Dnepropetrovsk the mood is far from being the same as in Donetsk. And secondly, let's even say you have annexed Ukraine as a whole - and what to do? There are only two and a half million people in Crimea - and even then its integration into Russia is, frankly, not going smoothly. And here - about forty-five million! And what will you do with them when it is not clear how to deal with your own?

- Actually, there is another scenario. Kim Jong-un will bang - and all our problems will cease to exist.

Doesn't bang.

- But why? Did he launch a rocket over Japan?

He has few of these missiles. And he won't do anything with Guam. The only thing he really threatens is Seoul. But South Korea has the status of a strategic ally of the United States, and after the first strike on Seoul - and there really is nothing to be done there, the distance is 30-40 km to the border - Trump has a free hand and the Kim regime ceases to exist.

“So it’s all going to end there?”

I think under Trump, yes. My friends from Seoul...

- Sources too?

Colleagues. And they say that there is no premonition of war or even a military threat: the metropolis lives an ordinary life, people do not panic ...

- What, in your opinion, is Russia's real role in Trump's victory?

Russia (or, as Putin called it, "patriotic hackers") did launch attacks, after which Obama, he said, warned Putin, and the attacks stopped. But all this was before September 2016! Otherwise, Trump's victory is the result of his successful political strategy and Hillary's mistakes. She couldn't play on the predestination factor. If you talk all the time about your uncontested victory, they will want to teach you a lesson. This, by the way, is one of the reasons why Putin is slow to announce the campaign. What did Trump do? His team clearly understood which states to win. Trump has successfully politicized the rednecks, a white middle class that is embittered and somewhat stagnant. He showed them an alternative: you are not voting for an establishment man, but for a simple guy, the flesh of the flesh of authentic America. And he won on it. But Trump - and this was understood here - is not so good for Russia: rather, Moscow simply did not like Clinton very much.

- Is there a global revenge of conservatives in the world?

It was possible to believe in these myths in 1916, when Brexit happened at the same time, Trump won, and Le Pen got some chances. But Le Pen never had a chance to go beyond the second round. And then ... Relapses happen, without them the era does not go away, but as the era of Gutenberg ended, so did the time of political conservatism, as we knew it before. People live with other oppositions, other desires, and the fight against globalism is the destiny of those who want to live in the "mental Donbass". There will always be such people, these are their personal ideas, which do not affect anything.

- A big war is not visible on the Russian routes?

We certainly do not initiate it. If others start, which is extremely unlikely, they will have to participate, but Russia itself has neither the idea, nor the resource, nor the desire. What war, what are you talking about? Look around: how many volunteers went to Donbass? War is a great way to solve internal problems, as long as it does not lead to suicide: this is the situation now.

- But why did they take Crimea then? Distracted from the protests?

I don't think. The protests were not dangerous. Putin just wondered: what will remain of him in history? Olympics? And if he really raised Russia from its knees, what was the result of this? The idea of ​​appropriation/return of Crimea existed before the Maidan, just in a milder version. Let's buy it from you. It was possible to agree on this with Yanukovych, but then the power in Ukraine collapsed, and Crimea actually fell into hands.

- And will remain Russian?

I guess yes. It will be written in the Ukrainian Constitution that he is Ukrainian, but everyone will put up with it.

- But how do you imagine the idea that post-Putin Russia will live with?

Very simple: recovery. Because now the country and society are seriously ill, and we all feel it. The problem is not even corruption, this is a special case. The problem is in the deepest, triumphant, general immorality. In absolute absurdity, idiocy, which is felt at all levels. In the Middle Ages, where we fall - not by someone's evil will, but simply because if there is no movement forward, then the world is rolling back. We need a return to the norm: normal education, calm business, objective information. Everyone wants this, and, with a few exceptions, even those around Putin. And everyone will breathe a sigh of relief when the norm returns. When they stop inciting hatred, and fear will cease to be the main emotion. And then money will quickly return to the country - including Russian money, withdrawn and hidden. And we will become one of the best launch pads for business, and economic growth within ten to twenty years may turn out to be record-breaking.

- And how will we all live together again - so to speak, our Crimean and Namkrysh?

So how did you live after the Civil War? You have no idea how quickly it all grows. People sort things out when they have nothing to do, and then everyone will have something to do, because today there is total senselessness and aimlessness in the country. This will end - and everyone will find something to do. Except, of course, those who want to remain irreconcilable. There are five percent of such people in any society, and this is their personal choice.

- Finally, explain: how are you tolerated at MGIMO?

You know from your own experience that there are different people at MGIMO. There are retrogrades and liberals, there are rightists and leftists. And I am neither the one nor the other. I look at everything from the standpoint of ordinary, unbiased common sense. And to everyone who wants to be a successful interpreter of reality here, I can give the only advice: do not look for insidious plans and malicious intent where banal stupidity, greed and cowardice operate.

https://www.site/2016-03-25/politolog_valeriy_solovey_my_pered_ochen_sereznymi_politicheskimi_peremenami

“After the elections, serious restrictions will be imposed on the exit of citizens from the country”

Political scientist Valery Solovey: we are in front of very serious political changes

Historian, political analyst, publicist Valery Solovey published a new book - “Absolute Weapon. Fundamentals of psychological warfare and media manipulation. Why do Russians lend themselves so easily to propaganda and how to “decode” them? Based on this, how will domestic political processes develop in the near future? What is the likely outcome of the election? Will our ties with the outside world change?

“In the manipulation of consciousness, Western democracies, Nazis and Soviets went the same way”

— Valery Dmitrievich, readers are wondering why you wrote another book on a question that has already been considered by dozens of other authors? For example, at one time the book by Sergei Kara-Murza "Manipulation of Consciousness" was popular. What mistakes and shortcomings do you see in it?

— In Russia, there is not a single worthy book that would talk about propaganda and media manipulation. Not a single one - I emphasize! The well-known book by Kara-Murza became so popular only because it was the first in Russia on this topic. But in its methodological basis and content, it is frankly mediocre. Further, my book, for the first time in the literature, connects cognitive psychology with long-known stories about the methods, techniques and techniques of propaganda. So far, there has been no such analysis and generalization in the literature on this topic. Meanwhile, cognitivist psychology is extremely important because it explains why people are susceptible to propaganda and why propaganda is inevitable. As long as there is humanity, there will be propaganda. And, finally, it must be said that I covered the topic of propaganda with actual examples that are well understood by readers. The result was a book that was even noted by the leaders of the Russian propaganda machine. As my friends told me, they said about her: "The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic." True, they added: “But it would be better if such a book did not come out at all.” I think this is a very high rating. In addition, the first edition was sold out in three weeks. Now the second one is coming out. Here is my answer to why I wrote this book.

Valery Solovey: “The first thing they pay attention to is hair. If a person is bald - on the eyes. A man needs to make sure he has good teeth and shoes.” from the personal archive of Valery Solovyov

- You once said that the concept of the Overton Window, which came from the West, revealing the secret mechanisms of the loosening of social norms, is nothing more than a pseudo-theory. Why?

“The Overton Window is a propaganda myth. And this concept itself is conspiratorial in nature: they say, there is a group of people who are planning a decades-long strategy to corrupt society. Never and nowhere in history has there been anything like it and cannot be, due to the imperfection of human nature. I suggest that a person who adheres to the concept of the Overton Window plan his life for at least a month and live according to his plan. Let's see what happens. Love for this kind of conspiracy is characteristic of those who are not even able to manage their own lives, let alone manage anything at all.

- In our country, the Overton Window is remembered when they point to problems with morality. Patriarch Kirill said so: "Pedophilia will be legalized for homosexuality."

- All changes in the history of mankind occur spontaneously. This does not mean that there is certainly some kind of conspiracy behind them and the legalization of homosexual marriages in some European countries will certainly lead to the legalization of pedophilia. In addition, in one case we are talking about adults who do something voluntarily, and in the other about minors who have parents, and the legalization of pedophilia is possible only through violation of human rights and violence. Therefore, yes, what was an anti-norm 100-200 years ago suddenly becomes acceptable today. But this is a natural process, there is no need to see here the “hairy paw of the Antichrist”, who came into this world to arrange Armageddon through homosexual marriages or something else.

At the same time, I want to say that in the same way, in a natural way, a reaction can occur. I do not at all rule out the possibility that European society may swing back towards conservative values. And not because a group of conspirators or Kremlin agents in Europe will be operating somewhere, but simply because the society decides enough is enough, they have played enough, you need to think about self-preservation.

“The leaders of the Russian propaganda machine said: “The only worthwhile book in Russian on this topic. But it would be better if it did not come out””pycode.ru

- Speaking of the manipulation of consciousness in our country, from what historical period can they be counted? Since the time of the Bolsheviks or even earlier?

- If we talk about manipulation in general, then from the moment people learned to speak. But if we are talking about mass manipulation, then from the moment the channels of mass communication appeared. The starting point of mass deception can be considered the emergence of the media. This, of course, newspapers, radio, television. And in this sense, all more or less developed countries followed the same path, that Western democracies - the USA, Great Britain, and so on, that Nazi Germany, that Soviet Russia. Propaganda occurs in all countries without exception.

Another thing is the quality of propaganda, sophistication, the presence of pluralism. In the same USA, there are media holdings owned by various independent owners. Therefore, different propaganda campaigns balance each other and during the electoral "marathons" citizens have the freedom of choice. Well, or the illusion of freedom of choice. That is, where there is pluralism, propaganda is always more subtle and sophisticated.

— In one of your interviews, you said that the BBC is one of the most objective English-speaking television companies. Do you still think so?

— This company confirms such a reputation with its many years of work. All TV companies allow blunders, they are all dependent in one way or another, but the BBC suffers from this least of all.

“Russia managed to create the best propaganda machine”

- And our propaganda is more advanced and stupid?

“I wouldn't say so. Russia has managed to create, by far, the best propaganda machine. But it is focused exclusively on its own population, since propaganda outside was not very successful. At least in the European area. Our propaganda is carried out by very professional people. These people, in particular, learned from the information failure of the summer of 2008. Remember the war for South Ossetia, which Russia won militarily but, by all accounts, lost in terms of information and propaganda? Since 2014, we have seen that the propaganda errors of 2008 are no longer there.

But we must understand that any propaganda has its limits. Russian propaganda hit its limits at the turn of 2015-16. And we will gradually observe its extinction. Or, as they often say today, the refrigerator will gradually begin to win over the TV. I think that at the turn of 2016-17, its strength will weaken quite seriously.

- Today's diligent resuscitation of the cult of Stalin, for example, casts doubts ...

“You don't have to fight it. This will collapse on its own once the regime is weakened. Stalin in the current realities is nothing more than a propaganda symbol that has no real content and materializing power under it. Those who call on us to return Stalin believe that he should return only for their neighbors, but not for themselves. When it comes to selfish interests, none of these screaming Stalinists is ready to sacrifice anything. So the cult of Stalin is a fiction. It's just that the authorities are exploiting the era of Stalin in order to legitimize some of their repressive measures. But not more. There is a rule of complex social systems. It says that a return to the past, whoever wants it, is impossible.

RIA Novosti / Evgeny Biyatov

- But to Stalin, as if bewitched, with flowers go "both old and young." Can you tell us about the methods of decoding personal and social consciousness?

- Turn on common sense, judge people by their deeds, read more, do not watch TV at all, or no more than 20 minutes a day. If you are called to vote for a party that promised something 5-10 years ago and has not done anything by the current date, do not vote for it in any case. The deeds speak for themselves.

- And then, in the future, it is necessary to lustrate the employees of the propaganda media? What they do - crimes? Do they have to be held accountable?

- It is known that the Nuremberg Trials equated propaganda with a crime against humanity. Therefore, in a sense, this question can be answered in the affirmative. As for lustration, I do not rule it out, but it is too early to say who will be affected.

“The masses will come out, but this will not lead to civil war and the collapse of the state”

- This year, for the first time in a long time, the elections of half of the State Duma will be held in single-member districts. Can we expect that the pre-election campaign will become more diverse, and new faces will come to the Duma, enliven it, make it a "place for discussion"?

“Despite the fact that single-mandate constituencies have been returned, I think that all the same, the most dangerous ones for the preservation of the regime will simply not be allowed to participate in the elections. Even at the stage of registration, candidates go through a "sieve" that allows you to weed out those who are disloyal to the regime. And even if some of the undesirables are admitted to the elections, they will experience the most severe pressure and generally regret that they went. The elections will give the impression of competition, but not the competition itself, the message will be the same for everyone, just the style is different. Therefore, the Duma itself as a whole will retain its decorative character.

RIA Novosti/Alexander Utkin

- Do you see in the country, in principle, any real opposition to the regime, capable of leading the people?

There is an opposition in Russia that the regime allows to exist. Because any real opposition to them is destroyed in the literal and figurative sense. But even the weak opposition is afraid of the regime.

- In this case, the reader asks, how do you, a specialist in media manipulation, assess the chances of Putin's leadership to formalize and legitimize in the eyes of the population the transformation of Russia into a semi-closed, anti-democratic autocracy similar to the countries of Central Asia?

- Indeed, today the ruling group in Russia is concerned with the question of how to maintain its dominance until 2035-40. At least, I have heard arguments on this subject from people close to the so-called "elite". But I believe that in the next couple of years we will see the limit of the possibilities of this mode. I agree that its representatives will try to legitimize their power. But, one way or another, they will soon run out of opportunities for this.

— And what about “physical” measures, such as closing borders?

- After the elections to the State Duma this year, serious restrictions will most likely be introduced on the exit of Russian citizens from the country.

Do you mean the law on exit visas?

- No, it's unlikely. Unspoken recommendations will be given to officials at all levels and their families not to leave the country. And if the officials are so seriously infringed, they will not tolerate any part of society remaining free in the country. In Russia, if serfdom is introduced, it applies to all classes. This is a historical tradition. According to my information, a tourist tax will be introduced, which will cut off the opportunity for many categories of citizens to travel abroad.

fastpic.ru

- Will this be a factor that, on the contrary, will bring the collapse of the regime closer? After all, this step will affect not only the "creakles", but also the townsfolk, who used to allow themselves to rest in decent hotels in Turkey, Egypt, Greece, Tunisia and so on for relatively little money.

— You are right, regimes are not collapsing because of opposition and external enemies. They collapse because of the stupidity of the managers. And sooner or later these stupidities begin to acquire a malignant character. If you look at the history of fallen regimes, you get the impression that those who ruled them, as if deliberately led the matter to collapse. In general, regarding any political processes in Russia, there is an axiom that the dynamics of the masses is unpredictable. And you can never know in advance what seemingly insignificant things can lead to major political shifts.

- Another reader's question is appropriate here: “What scenario is the most possible in Russia? The first is that Shoigu (or another conservative) becomes president, punitive and protective measures are tightened, that is, the transition to the USSR No. 2. The second is the Libyan scenario. The third is the Rose Revolution scenario. Fourth, peaceful evolution towards European democracy. Or the fifth, the collapse of the Russian Federation into many small states as a result of the current colonial pseudo-federal system?”

- What I definitely do not expect is the collapse of Russia. When they say this to me, I clearly understand that this is pure trade in fear. I believe that Russia is facing very serious political changes. They will happen in the not so distant medium term and will change our political landscape beyond recognition. These changes will be predominantly peaceful. And then we will move not very clear where. This will depend on the outcome of the change.

- In the early 1990s, the masses also quite peacefully took to the streets and said: "We can't live like this anymore."

Yes, they will come out. And not for political reasons, but for socio-economic ones. I think that this is very likely, especially in large cities. But this will not lead to civil war or to the collapse of the state. I do not believe in this.

RIA Novosti/Alexey Danichev

“But when the protest is peaceful, it is easy to suppress it. No wonder a person asks you a question about Shoigu and the tightening of punitive and protective measures.

- The authorities are constantly moving in this direction, but do not exaggerate the loyalty of the repressive apparatus. She is not at all what she seems. In a critical situation, they simply can not follow the order and step back.

- Not the collapse of the country, but the disappearance of some regions, for example, the North Caucasus - is this possible?

— I don't think these republics want to leave Russia. In fact, they are good at it. Where should they go? Without it, they won't survive at all. Therefore, they will bargain, trying to impose their conditions. But as a result of political changes, I think Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced and meaningful. Personally, I don't think it's right to pay huge sums of money for political loyalty. It's corrupting. Yes, and already corrupted.

“Our politicians use neo-Eurasianism and religion as long as it suits them”

- Do we still have sane nationalist, or rather national-democratic forces after the Ukrainian events?

- As for organized nationalism, it drags out a miserable existence. He is not allowed to raise his head, many leaders, like Belov, are behind bars. Others, like Demushkin, understand that if they are active, they will follow Belov. But as for nationalism in general as a kind of public mood, it certainly exists. And these sentiments will soon be politically in demand.

Are you going to revive your national-democratic New Force party when times are more favorable for public politics?

- It is frozen due to the fact that we were threatened with reprisals. But in general, I believe that both today and in the future the party format is unpromising. I think that other formats will be in demand.

RIA Novosti/Yuri Ivanov

- What are the prospects for the coming to power of members of the "January 25 Committee" Igor Strelkov and other "Novorossov"?

- There are different people in this organization: nationalists, and Soviet "imperials", and Orthodox monarchists. I do not see that this organization has any prospects. But some, some of its leaders, have. And I do not rule out that 2-3 of them will be able to play a role in the coming political changes that we talked about above.

- In general, do Russians have a chance to organize themselves following the example of Israel or Japan, that is, to create a national state? This is a question from one of our readers.

- Of course, there is such a chance, because the Russians feel like a single people. It is Russians, not Russians. So Russia is in fact, in fact, a nation state, it remains only to formalize the superstructure - the laws - in accordance with this reality and change the policy so that it coincides with the interests of the national majority.

Do you think Russians have a national identity these days?

— Yes, it exists, it manifests itself in everyday life. It's just that Russians are afraid to talk about it out loud. At least two-thirds of Russians feel their national consciousness. Just do not confuse real Russians and "literary" - national costumes, cuisine, tools, something else. It's just lubok. The nation-state is a modern state, not an archaism.

“Moscow's policy towards these republics will become more balanced. Paying huge amounts of money for political loyalty is wrong.” RIA Novosti/Said Tsarnaev

— The overwhelming majority of today's "Russian nationalists" are Orthodox activists and are convinced that the Russian national state must stand on the foundation of Orthodoxy, there is no way without it. Personally, this format of the nation-state is unpleasant to me. A multinational and cosmopolitan society is better, but secular and with freedom of worldview, including religious, choice.

- Your response is appropriate. But, firstly, if you are afraid, then it is better not to do anything at all, not even to leave the house. There is always a risk when doing something. And, secondly, the results of this process will depend on those who are at the head of it. Because there is a general sociological pattern: those at the bottom copy those at the top. And if the elite sets itself clear goals that are understandable and beneficial to the national majority, nothing terrible will happen.

Let's say you say: we want to provide affordable housing to the national majority in order to reverse the demographic situation. The bottoms answer: “Great! We want!” This is what the nation state is. But if someone, instead of clear and understandable goals, uses myths like “Stalinism” and says that it is in it that the primordially Russian character and behavior of those in power are concentrated, then this is no longer a national state. This is completely different.

- And the “neo-Eurasianism”, which dominates the semi-official ideology of the ruling group, is this serious? What do you think - do they really believe in it or use it, like the same notorious "Stalinism"?

- To believe or not to believe - such a question in politics is not worth it. They find it convenient. It gives some ideological justification for what they do. They use it as long as it suits them. And religion, by the way, too. And if suddenly the weather vane of moods in society swings in the other direction, they will become Russian nationalists or even Muslims. Therefore, do not focus too much on this issue.

“Russia made no effort to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence”

— Since we mentioned neo-Eurasianism, let's finish our conversation with a series of questions about Ukraine: it is, perhaps, the main victim of the ideology of "neo-Eurasianism", or "Russian world".

One of our readers recalls that Brzezinski is credited with saying: "Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be an empire; with Ukraine, Russia automatically turns into an empire." That is, I would like to know your opinion: is the “shaggy paw of American imperialism” visible in the break in relations between Russia and Ukraine?

— I believe that the separation of Russia and Ukraine was a natural process. It began not two years ago, but in the early 1990s. And even then, many analysts said that Ukraine would inevitably drift towards the West. Moreover, Russia did not make any special efforts to keep Ukraine in the orbit of its influence. Or, at least, did not make the efforts that would be effective. I do not mean the supply of gas at reduced prices, but cultural and intellectual levers of influence. They were not used, and no one cared about that. So, I repeat, this is quite a natural process.

And after the annexation of Crimea to Russia, the war in the Donbass, the point of no return has been passed. Now Ukraine will definitely never be a fraternal state with Russia. At the same time, I do not think that the West will accept Ukraine either. Most likely, she will drag out a poor existence. But this does not mean that she will come to bow to Moscow. Anti-Moscow and anti-Russian sentiments will henceforth be the cornerstone for the formation of the national self-consciousness of Ukrainians. Here the question can be closed.

RIA Novosti/Andrey Stenin

“So Russia will never be an empire again?”

Well, this was understandable even in the 1990s, and not only in connection with Brzezinski's geopolitical views. And now we are at the point of post-Soviet existence. Rather, we are stuck there and do not develop anywhere. True, this inertia has already exhausted itself. Therefore political changes are inevitable.

- Is there an opportunity in the future to compromise on the “Crimean issue” in order to get rid of the sanctions?

“I think there is a chance to freeze this problem and ensure the de facto recognition of Crimea. As for the Crimean Tatars, there are not very many of them. And they can be offered such a formula, on the basis of which they would understand that it is better to live in the world. If they realize that there is no other alternative for them, then they will reconcile. This is quite enough. De jure recognition of Crimea as Russian territory depends on the position of Ukraine. If we talk about sanctions against Russia, then there are those imposed for Crimea, and there are those for Donbass. And these are different sanctions. And the sanctions for Crimea are far from being the most sensitive.

- What, in your opinion, awaits Ukraine in general and Donbass in particular?

— The fate of Ukraine depends on the quality of its elite. If an elite appears there, capable of leading the country onto new tracks of development, then everything will be fine with it. I don't think it will break up or become a federation. But, one way or another, he will remain the "sick man of Europe."

The fate of Donbass is terrible. In any situation, he is doomed to be a kind of "black hole" on the geopolitical map. Most likely, it will turn out to be a peaceful territory, but de facto not part of Ukraine, nor part of Russia. It will be a region where crime, corruption, economic decline will reign - a kind of European Somalia. There is no point in modernizing something there, because no one really needs the Donbass. For Ukraine and for Russia, this is a stone on their feet. But people get used to everything. I have friends and relatives who live there, have already adapted to this lifestyle and do not want to leave.

RIA Novosti/Dan Levy

Reference

Valery Solovey was born in 1960. After graduating from the Faculty of History of Moscow State University, he worked at the Academy of Sciences, the Gorbachev Foundation. He completed an internship at the London School of Economics and Political Science. Doctor of Historical Sciences (dissertation topic - "The Russian Question" and its influence on the domestic and foreign policy of Russia). Currently, he is a professor at MGIMO, head of the department of public relations, author of a course of lectures on the manipulation of public consciousness.

Political scientist Valery Solovey has filed a letter of resignation from MGIMO due to the fact that the institute "for political reasons" allegedly no longer wants to have "any business" with him. The university says that Mr. Nightingale decided to leave on his own after the term of his contract expired, however, Mr. Nightingale claims that his contract expired only in 2021. Earlier, for "political reasons", several employees left the Higher School of Economics.

The fact that he is leaving MGIMO, where he was a professor in the Department of Advertising and Public Relations, “for political reasons,” political scientist Valery Solovey said on Wednesday on his page in Facebook.

“For political reasons, the institute no longer wants to have anything to do with me,” Mr. Nightingale wrote. “I understand this reluctance. And I will be grateful if from now on they will not associate me with MGIMO in any way.

Valery Solovey worked at MGIMO for 11 years: “I am sorry to part with my colleagues at the institute, the vast majority of whom are decent and nice people. But the most annoying thing is to stop regular communication with students, ”he wrote in his letter of departure. Mr. Nightingale intends to start working on a book “by order of a very large European publishing house” in the near future, but he is not going to return to teaching. “Russia is entering an era of drastic changes, and I intend to take the most active part in them,” he said.

When asked by Kommersant who exactly at MGIMO told him about the termination of cooperation, Valery Solovey replied that the decision “came from the leadership of the university”: “They don’t want to work with me anymore, okay, I’ll leave.” MGIMO spokeswoman Victoria Kalashnikova told Kommersant that Mr. Nightingale "has ended his contract, and he decided to leave." "It's his decision," she stressed. Valery Solovey himself said that he was “elected to his position by competition for three years” and “the term ends only in 2021.”

Valery Solovey was born in the city of Shchastya, Lugansk region, Ukrainian SSR on August 19, 1960, in 1983 he graduated from the history department of Moscow State University, then he was a graduate student and employee of the Institute of History of the Academy of Sciences. In 1987 he defended his Ph.D. thesis on the role of the Institute of Red Professors in the development of Soviet historical science, in 2005 - a doctoral dissertation on the influence of the "Russian question" on Russia's domestic and foreign policy in the 18th - early 21st centuries). In 2012, Valery Solovey headed the nationalist New Force party, but the Ministry of Justice refused to register it. In November 2017, the political scientist was part of the campaign headquarters of the presidential candidate Boris Titov.

Recall that earlier several employees of the Higher School of Economics (HSE) announced their dismissals for political reasons. At first political scientist Alexander Kynev said that after the decision of the HSE leadership to disband the Department of Political Science, merging it with the Department of State and Municipal Administration, the course he taught disappeared from the program. Mr. Kynev explained that his fixed-term employment contract expires in August 2019, and suggested that the HSE leadership is thus getting rid of “teachers with a critical attitude towards what is happening in the country.” After that, a junior researcher at the HSE Laboratory for Comparative Social Research announced her resignation from the HSE Elena Sirotkina. According to her, the reason was pressure from the leadership of the university because of her research on supporters of the opposition leader Alexei Navalny. The HSE said that information about dismissals for political reasons is not true. They noted that the university asked Ms. Sirotkina for a description of the study, “because there were questions of an ethical nature to it.” The HSE doubted that this request "can be regarded as pressure."

In 2014 historian Andrei Zubov stated that MGIMO did not renew the contract with him because of statements that "go against the foreign policy of Russia." MGIMO then stated that the statements and interviews of Mr. Zubov "about what is happening in Ukraine and about Russia's foreign policy cause indignation and bewilderment in the university environment" and "run counter to Russia's foreign policy course."