What's happening to the climate? So, what is happening with the weather and climate around the world? What will happen next with the climate.

From an interview with famous scientist Dr. Michio Kaku:

“...Now, every day we learn from the news about new weather and natural anomalies, and disasters. More frequent earthquakes in regions where they have not occurred for centuries. Snow and abnormal cold in the summer in those countries where this should not happen. Furious hurricanes, storms and tornadoes in places where nothing like this has ever been seen. Every day this year brought weather records and climate anomalies.

...The recent closed Report of an international group of researchers presented at the London conference showed that it is already possible to talk about global and catastrophic changes taking place on Earth.
This applies to seismic activity, weather, and climate. And these changes are quickly going for the worse for us.”

Since the end of 2016, several international groups have carried out research, modeling and analysis of data from around the world, all of which have come to disappointing results. Since 2017, humanity has entered a period of mortal danger.

So in December 2016, the Earthquake Research Institute, University of Tokyo (ERI; Tokyo Daigaku Jishin Kenkyu-jo) prepared a closed report for the UN and the world's leading governments. Topic: 2017 is the year of threat to the existence of humanity.

The scientists who prepared this report ask the UN to consider 2017 as a year of threat to the continued existence of humanity, and for the governments of the world to take their warning seriously, prepare their armies, rescue services, the population, and take a number of emergency measures to avoid mass loss of life.

So today it became known that during the summit in Hamburg, Trump and Putin had TWO meetings. The second was informal (secret). The conversation took place immediately after dinner and lasted about an hour. Only Putin's translator was present at this secret meeting.

It is unknown what the presidents of the two leading powers in the world were talking about. But if we add up several facts, we will know the result of this conversation.

Starting from July 10, information began to arrive from various sources that many leading scientists from around the world had received an offer to take part in the work of the International Group. The goals and objectives of this Group are not disclosed. The composition of scientists specializing in certain fields of science, but related to each other by one profile, is interesting. These are seismologists, climatologists, volcanologists, weather forecasters, geophysicists, geochemists, etc.

On July 17, Reto Knutti, a famous Swiss climatologist and professor of physics of the Earth's climate, gave an interesting interview to a journalist from the Tribune de Geneve. He said that in two weeks he was flying to the United States to take part in the work of a newly created international group of scientists. The group will consist of 60 scientists from around the world. The creation of an international group was initiated by the United States and Russia. Their leaders agreed on this at the G20 in Hamburg. Scientists will work in close cooperation with representatives of the American FEMA and the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations. Reto did not provide details about the goals and objectives of the Group. He only mentioned that this related to the topic of his last conversation.

If we compare all these facts, we see that, most likely, the scientists’ signals were not in vain and the two reports of two international groups of scientists, which they sent to the leading world governments at the beginning of this year, reached their recipients and the most reasonable world leaders began to react. And quite a long time ago.

Today the whole world is following the events around North Korea, around which many troops are gathering. And all analysts nervously grab their hair, asking the question “When!?” However, if you look at the situation from a different angle, then perhaps never. That is, no US strike on North Korea is not planned and will not happen. In fact the main point in a different.

In the spring of this year, the topic of the upcoming mega-earthquake in the United States, which the Russians were able to calculate, was actively discussed on conspiracy theological forums. They have been working on the topic of predicting earthquakes, seismic weapons and other things for a very long time - the Russians have more dark “research ships” in the Ocean than the US paratroopers have inflatable and motor boats. It looked very much like the Russians had learned something terrible and calculated it using only the algorithms they knew:

On this moment it's hard to say what this new one will do international group scientists and one can only guess what tasks will be assigned to her for analysis. However, if the tasks for this group are set by the two most powerful presidents, it seems that everything there is very serious and most likely very bad.

In the coming years, there will be neither a frosty winter nor a hot summer in the central part of Russia; in the coming decades, climate warming will continue on the planet, and in thousands of years another ice age will begin. The head of the climatology laboratory at the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Doctor of Geographical Sciences Andrei Shmakin spoke about such assumptions of scientists regarding climate change.

Greenhouse Russian winter

Every year for residents of central Russia, winter begins with above-zero temperatures and rain. What's going on with the weather?

On the one hand, this temperature at the end of November is, of course, above normal. On the other hand, given that such deviations have been observed for 20 years already, above-zero temperatures at this time can already be considered the norm. Warming is underway, and in the Moscow region it manifests itself precisely during a period traditionally considered cold. Winter warms the most, second roles in this process occupy the beginning of spring and end of autumn. Summer doesn't get warmer at all.

What is the reason for the establishment of a new norm, which many residents of central Russia still perceive more as an anomaly?

As the British say, good question. We ourselves don’t really know the answer. Only the immediate cause of such thaws is known. Daily weather is formed by air masses that most often come from the Atlantic, sometimes from the Arctic Ocean, Central Asia or Africa. This is the kind of cloudy, rainy, relatively warm weather brought by Atlantic cyclones, the number and intensity of which have increased over the past decades. Moreover, these cyclones bring warm weather and precipitation in winter, and on the contrary, cold weather in summer, but also with precipitation. The consequences of these processes are ambiguous. In Siberia, for example, there is even more intense warming than in Moscow, but there the temperature, for example, was -25, but became -23, that is, it still remains very cold. And if warming brings precipitation to Moscow in the form of rain, then to Siberia it brings precipitation in the form of a large amount of snow. Due to this, the depth of snow cover throughout Russia is increasing. What causes such complex, nonlinear processes in formation and movement air masses, scientists cannot yet explain. Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are believed to play a very strong role. Without a doubt, natural factors also contribute, for example, solar radiation, the mechanisms of action of which are much less studied than the influence of humans. There is a lot mixed in here, so you need to study everything in its entirety, look at how anthropogenic and natural mechanisms interact, how each of them affects climate change.

Does climate change affect human health?

The short answer to this question is: yes. How and to what extent this influence is expressed is another matter. For now this topic, which, by the way, is the subject of a separate field of science - medical meteorology - has not been adequately studied. But it is known that the more intense the cyclonic circulation (and it has become more intense, and this is an indisputable fact), the more often changes are observed atmospheric pressure. For people with cardiovascular diseases, of course, this is a minus. There are also purely meteorological changes - humidity, strengthening and weakening of the wind - which also negatively affect some people. In addition, during the frost-free period, viruses and bacteria are activated. On the other hand, when the overall winter temperature background becomes higher, the risk of frostbite decreases, which is already a positive thing. Also, livestock can graze on grass longer rather than stand in a stall, which affects the quality of meat and milk, and therefore, indirectly, the health of the person who eats these products.

How does warming affect the economy?

The biggest economic advantage: it gives the country greater savings in heating resources. For Agriculture there are also negative consequences, because winter crops in such weather can get wet and partially die, although in general, it is clear that it is better for plants to have a longer warm season. For builders, warming creates some problems. For example, in frozen conditions, a building is built on piles, but if the layer into which these piles are driven thaws over the summer, then the building collapses. Such cases have already happened. But basically, of course, they were associated not so much with climate change as with the negligence of builders. In general, I will say this: if a person always behaved reasonably, then the problems of climate change would hardly bother him.

There are a lot of interesting things here. Now there is a trend in the world: damage from natural disasters is growing significantly. However, this is not due to the fact that there are more natural disasters. It’s just that a person began to build in those places that it had never occurred to him to explore before, and, naturally, he began to be affected by the processes that always took place in these places. In particular, until the beginning of the twentieth century, no one lived on the ocean coasts at all, but now there are a lot of cities there, and as soon as a hurricane or strong storm begins, everything is flooded, broken by waves, and so on. It is the person’s own fault for meddling where he shouldn’t. On the other hand, where should he go? The population is growing, which means that people are inevitably building in new places. This is all very difficult indeed...

New Ice Age

What are the climate change projections for the coming decades?

They are all approximate and based on extrapolation of current trends into the future; they do not include the possibility of sharp, unexpected changes in the climate system that would overturn the trends observed today. According to these forecasts, the planet will continue to warm over the next decade. As for the more distant period, the uncertainty of these forecasts increases exponentially, and the reliability, accordingly, decreases. It is possible that some mechanisms about which we know nothing at all may come into play, or, for example, mechanisms already known to us will behave differently, or factors that operate over longer periods of time will turn on. Let's say that a cycle of climate change lasting one hundred thousand years is now known, the trends of which have been studied from ice cores. According to these data, a fairly clear curve of warming and cooling emerges with a period of approximately one hundred thousand years. Over the past four hundred thousand years, four such cycles have passed. We are now in a warm phase. If you simply abstract from everything and extrapolate the same curve into the future, in a few thousand years the next phase will come - cooling, the end of which will be a new ice age.

In how many thousand years?

It's impossible to say for sure. But exactly in thousands of years, not tens or hundreds, so it’s not soon. Then, after all, the daily, annual, ten-year regime of climate change is monitored, which means that this will not come as a surprise. We have a good idea of ​​how the system now moves and behaves. But, you see, all previous cycles occurred without anthropogenic participation, and no one can predict how the next cycle of one hundred thousand years will overlap with anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions.

Do scientists have versions of what the climate on the planet will be like at the top of the warming cycle, and when we will approach it?

I just spoke about a time scale of hundreds of thousands of years; on a scale of one hundred million years, we have an almost continuous cooling, that is, the climate curve has some beatings, but it is going down. Fifty to sixty million years ago the Earth was much warmer than it is now, there was no winter as we understand it, even in the subpolar latitudes, and crocodiles lived in the Arctic. This was the time when deposits of coal, oil, and so on were formed. All the biomass, which flourished magnificently at all latitudes and continents, died and ended up in the form of coal and partly oil (although the hypotheses are different for oil) sediments. So what to compare with? If we talk about cycles of one hundred thousand years and the peaks of warming between ice ages, then now we are at a lower point than it was in the “Holocene optimum” - five to six thousand years ago. It was even warmer then than now; relatively heat-loving plants such as hornbeam grew on the coast White Sea. We did not even reach this level, although such a climate existed within the memory of mankind - of course, then we still wore skins and did not have writing, but we already existed in nature.

The official rate of warming is 0.7 - 0.8 degrees per hundred years on average across the globe. In Russia the trend is higher, approximately 1 - 1.2 degrees per hundred years. But there are also areas where no warming is observed at all, for example, in Black Sea coast Caucasus, in some areas of the Arctic. In the central region of Russia, the increase in temperature occurs in winter and the adjacent months of spring and autumn, and the main part of the warm season remained without warming. Moreover, we now have a very interesting and unexpected process happening in Central Russia: the frost-free period is shortening. Spring has already arrived, the snow has long melted, trees and bushes are blooming, flowers are blooming, and somewhere in May the last frosts occur! And the first autumn frosts come in September. So, the length of the season between these two events is called the “frost-free period”; it is decreasing in Central Russia, and all the warming is located beyond its borders. In spring and autumn, breakthroughs of cold air from the Arctic have become more frequent, which arrives for literally two days, freezes everything and leaves, or, conversely, warms itself up. Berries, apple trees, plums and cherries suffer greatly from this.

This means that we will again have a relatively warm winter and a relatively cool summer...

Apparently so. But this is a mechanical forecast, based, in essence, on the fact that tomorrow will be the same as yesterday. In meteorology, the situation is this: if you say every day that today the weather will be the same as yesterday, then the probability that your forecast will come true will be approximately 60 percent. So you can make bets with friends, and in most cases you will win.

Following the abnormally warm weather (on May 2, the air temperature in Moscow warmed up to 25.6 degrees), the same abnormal cooling occurred. For several days, starting from May 8, the air does not warm up above 10 degrees Celsius. Is this weather a consequence of global warming, why is the Earth’s temperature rising, who could be behind climate change and what weather anomalies can we expect this year? Read the material on the site.

Global warming as an engine of progress

Contrary to popular belief that global warming is a fairly new phenomenon, scientists say that the temperature on Earth began to rise already in the 19th century. And the reason for this lies in the increasingly active economic activity person.

For example, three centuries ago no one would be surprised that the Thames froze: judging by engravings from that period, fairs and ice skating were held on the river. Now it's so a rare event, which is considered an anomaly causing panic among local residents. The Arctic ice cap began to shrink at the beginning of the 20th century. However, this is precisely what made the emergence of the northern sea route possible.

But, scientists believe, warming reached its apogee in 1920–1930 - it was at this time that a number of climate changes occurred that significantly affected the entire ecosystem of the planet. Thus, the temperature on Spitsbergen (this is part of the polar archipelago located in the Arctic Ocean) increased by an average of 5 degrees - because of this, it became possible to conduct economic activities there. In the Greenland Sea, the thickness of the ice cover has decreased by half, and in the Barents Sea by 30 percent. These phenomena led to the fact that both seas became accessible to navigation.

At the same time, the permafrost boundary began to recede everywhere, and the temperature of frozen soils increased by 1.5–2 degrees. Warming led to droughts becoming commonplace in the territories of the Soviet Union and “reaching” America. Entire areas have changed flora and fauna.

However, already in the 1940s, climate trends began to change - cooling began. And the warming that was observed just a couple of decades ago was called by experts nothing more than an anomaly that has no global prospects. During this period, glaciers in the Caucasus Mountains practically stopped melting, the ice boundary in the Arctic began to shift south, and Spitsbergen became noticeably colder.

The sea is agitated once

The World Ocean is to blame for what is happening to the atmosphere. The fact is that the water in the ocean warms up unevenly - in shallow water the temperature can reach up to 36 degrees, but in the very great depth does not exceed zero degrees. In order to heat all this mass of water, you need to try very hard. For example, if the Earth's atmosphere warms by 1 degree due to human activity, then the ocean temperature will increase by a tiny amount - only 0.001 degrees. Therefore, even if there is a very active release of carbon dioxide and dust into the atmosphere (this is what leads to an increase in temperature), the ocean will warm up extremely slowly - it will be prevented by the melting of glaciers and very great depth, which generates icy streams of water.

The cooling that occurred in the 1940s and 1950s was led, oddly enough, by warming. Due to the heated atmosphere, air masses over the ocean began to actively move. The wind drove into certain place a warm surface layer, and instead of it, ice streams rose from the thickness of the ocean, which then mixed with warm ones. Actually, this mixing of water led to a decrease in temperature on the surface of the ocean and, as a consequence, a decrease in atmospheric temperature. It’s curious, but even if the temperature drops, the ocean continues to warm up, albeit by negligible amounts.

Emissions cold water from the depths of the ocean, which began to occur due to the mixing of currents, led to a number of weather anomalies. This phenomenon seriously affected the climate of several regions: some parts of the planet experienced severe drought, which led to the death of thousands of people, and heavy rains in others. The year 1972 stood out especially in this regard, becoming a record holder for weather anomalies.

Carbon dioxide

The main reason why the atmosphere heats up and then the World Ocean begins to “disturb” is the greenhouse effect. It, in turn, is created due to the emission of carbon dioxide, which is precisely related to human activity. During the industrial era, the content of this gas in the atmosphere increased by more than a third.

Scientists predict that in the next 100–200 years, the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere risks exceeding the level of the Triassic period, which was on Earth 200 million years ago. At that time, dinosaurs lived on the planet, and the sun shone very dimly.

Normally, the Earth's atmosphere should contain carbon dioxide from 200-400 parts per million in cold periods and up to 3000 in warm periods. The planet is currently in a cold period, and just a century and a half ago this figure was about 250 parts per million. But over the past decades, the carbon dioxide content has increased by more than one and a half times and last year amounted to 405 parts per million. It is also of great importance that changes occur very quickly: if in the time of dinosaurs, climatic metamorphoses took millions of years, now they are happening before the eyes of 2-3 generations of people.

Another factor influencing the heating of the atmosphere is the so-called heat caps over cities - the larger the populated area, the warmer it is above it. And that very beautiful flickering on the surface of the Earth that we see when looking at images from space is a real sign of a climate threat.

Video: YouTube/user: New Vision

But, be that as it may (if we do not take into account the apocalyptic forecasts of some experts), even if the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere increases so much that it leads to warming by 5-10 degrees, wait until this actually affects the weather outside the window, it will take more than one decade.

What will happen next

In general, scientists agree that in the next few years we are facing not so much sudden warming as a change in the structure of the climate as a whole. These changes are characterized big amount weather anomalies, which, in fact, we are already seeing.

According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), last year was the warmest on record: the average temperature was 1.1 degrees higher. However, the temperature has increased by an average of one degree since 2001. Even such minor (in the eyes of the average person) changes have already led to serious consequences. Researchers believe that climate change was the cause of fires in Canada, rainstorms in California and earthquakes in Italy that occurred in 2016.

As for the prospects for this year, scientists' forecasts are disappointing. According to experts, climate change in the Arctic and active melting of glaciers will lead to a shift in broader patterns of oceanic and atmospheric circulation, which will seriously affect the weather in different points planets.

In February of this year, NASA specialists recorded the record thinnest ice cover in Antarctica and the Arctic in the entire history of observations (since 1979).

Video: YouTube/user: NASA Goddard

Such processes, scientists predict, will already end of XXI centuries could lead to about five million Europeans losing their homes due to floods.

Anomalies have already been recorded in the winter of 2017 and there will be more of them in the future, experts warn. According to the WMO, the Arctic has experienced a “polar heatwave equivalent” at least three times. This phenomenon was caused by an influx of warm, moist air due to powerful Atlantic storms. Almost 12 thousand temperature records was recorded in February in America. Australia suffered from prolonged and extreme heat in January-February, and in some areas of the Arabian Peninsula and North Africa It was unusually cold.

Interestingly, the temperature of the surface layer of air in Russia is growing 2.5 times faster than in the world as a whole. This conclusion follows from the report of the Russian Hydrometeorological Center “On the characteristics of the climate on the territory of the Russian Federation for 2016.” It has become especially warm in the Arctic: in Taimyr the temperature has increased by 0.8 degrees over 10 years.

The result of these processes was abnormal weather, which we observed in December last year, when several temperature records were broken at once. In addition, 2016 became an absolute record holder for the number of dangerous meteorological phenomena, including those that caused damage. 590 cases of heat, frost, strong winds and precipitation, as well as frosts and snowstorms. A year earlier there were 570 of them, and 10–15 years ago – 150–400. Of course, there is no data for this year yet, but, apparently, the current abnormal weather is a continuation of last year’s trends.

It took just four days for the 150-meter-wide Slims River to disappear from the face of the planet. This was a consequence of climate change on the Kaskawulsh Glacier in Canada and the first case of such a large-scale river interception on record. River interception, scientists note, is a geological process that usually lasts much longer human life. Therefore, what happened to the Slims River came as a real shock to researchers who began observing the process on Monday and finished on Thursday.

Video: YouTube/user: Tech Insider

However, one of the most serious consequences of global warming that humanity will have to face in the foreseeable future may be a slowdown in warm current Gulf Stream. This could lead to the reality of popular disaster movie scenarios that show coastal areas of the United States being washed away by a huge wave, and Europe freezing due to extreme cold.

Already now the areas Northern Europe, which are warmed by the Gulf Stream, become not as comfortable as before, especially in winter period. This is due to the fact that the usually warm Gulf Stream began to be greatly “diluted” by cold waters from the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh water current has a lower density than salty ocean, therefore remains on the surface, disturbing the balance of the huge current. Scientists believe that it was the slowdown of the Gulf Stream that at one time led to the onset of a small ice age. It's not hard to imagine what could happen if the scenario were to repeat itself.

Scientists from Malaysia are not encouraging either: experts warn that due to global warming, we should expect an increase in precipitation during the summer monsoons in the next 50-100 years. And all due to the fact that carbon dioxide is retained in the air a large number of moisture that rains down on already flooded areas.

Video: YouTube/user:
Earth HD

Convenient truth

According to the conspiracy theory, there are very specific forces behind global climate change. It's about about the High Frequency Active Auroral Research Program, an American research program for the study of the ionosphere and auroras, which was launched in 1997 in Alaska and closed in 2014. HAARP has been accused of not only being able to disable satellites, control people's minds, and be used as a weapon against terrorists, but it can also independently generate weather phenomena, causing earthquakes, droughts, hurricanes, and floods. It is also considered the cause of the crash of the space shuttle Columbia in 2003.

In fact, HAARP is known to have been studying the very top of the atmosphere, which is called the ionosphere. The ionospheric profile is extremely difficult to study because it is so subtle and variable. This profile becomes especially complex near the Earth’s magnetic poles. Research in this area is aimed at developing air defense and missile defense systems.

Al Gore, the former vice president of the United States and George W. Bush's rival in the 2000 presidential election, also attempted to “expose” the causes of global warming. According to Gore's theory (for which he received in 2007 Nobel Prize), which he outlined in documentary film"An inconvenient truth", the cause of global warming is not only scientific, but also political factors. The politician's point of view is still disputed by some scientists. Another part of the experts generally considers Gore’s conclusions pseudoscientific and unfounded. The majority of Americans who elected Bush Jr. as their president also ignored Gore’s environmental agenda. However, he subsequently lost an impressive part of his electorate precisely because he did not pay due attention to the problem of global warming.

Global warming and other irreversible changes in the environment cause concern among many scientists.

How does climate change threaten Russia? Shifting climatic zones, insect invasions, destructive natural disasters and crop failures - in the RIA Novosti selection.

Climate change has led to a tick infestation in Russia

Climate change has led to a strong increase in the number and rapid spread of ticks in central Russia, the North, Siberia and the Far East, reports the World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Russia.

“Increasingly more frequent than previously warm winters and springs lead to the fact that a larger percentage of ticks successfully overwinter, their numbers grow, and they spread over an ever larger territory. Climate change forecasts for the coming decades clearly indicate that trends will not change, which means that the ticks themselves will not crawl away and die, and the problem will only worsen,” says Alexey Kokorin, head of the Climate and Energy program at WWF Russia, whose words are quoted by the fund.

According to WWF, in regions where ticks have always been present, there are more of them. This Perm region, Vologda, Kostroma, Kirov and other regions, Siberia and the Far East. But what’s worse is that ticks have appeared where they are “not known.” They are spreading to the north Arkhangelsk region, and the west, and even the south of Russia. If previously only two of the most dangerous in relation to tick-borne encephalitis were considered northern regions Moscow region - Taldomsky and Dmitrovsky, now ticks have been spotted in the middle part of the region and even in the south, WWF notes.

“The most dangerous months, when ticks are most active, are May and June, although outbreaks of activity also occur at the end of summer. The most dangerous places are small forests of deciduous trees - young birch and aspen forests, edges and forest areas with tall grass. Much less dangerous coniferous forests, especially if there is little grass in them,” the foundation emphasizes.

As ecologists add, the “infection” of the ticks themselves, which carry very serious diseases: encephalitis, Lyme disease (borreliosis), has not changed. As before, the carriers themselves dangerous disease- encephalitis - only 1-2 ticks out of a thousand occur. There are several dozen other diseases out of a thousand. But the number of ticks themselves has increased and, most importantly, they have appeared in new places.

The positive effect of climate change for the Russian Federation will be short-lived

The positive consequences of climate change for Russian agriculture, which were previously stated in an interview by the head of the Ministry of Agriculture Nikolai Fedorov, will apparently be short-term and may disappear by 2020, the coordinator of the climate and energy program of the World Wildlife Fund told RIA Novosti (WWF) Russia Alexey Kokorin.

Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fedorov said in an interview on Wednesday that climate change and, in particular, warming will be in the interests of the country, since the territory of permafrost, which today accounts for about 60% of the territory of the Russian Federation, will be reduced, and the area of ​​land favorable for farming agriculture, on the contrary, will increase.

According to Kokorin, the Institute of Agricultural Meteorology of Roshydromet in Obninsk analyzed in sufficient detail for all macroregions of Russia possible scenarios climate change and its impact on agricultural conditions in the country.

“It turns out that, indeed, for some time there may be a so-called positive effect on the conditional climate yield. But then, in some cases from 2020, in some from 2030, depending on the scenario, it still goes down.” , - said Kokorin.

“That is, of course, some catastrophic things that are predicted, say, for Uzbekistan or for certain African countries are not expected. Moreover, a small positive and short-term effect is expected - but here it is always necessary to make a reservation, firstly, what period of time are we talking about, and secondly, that later it will still be, unfortunately, a minus,” the expert added.

Kokorin recalled that one of the consequences of climate change will be an increase in the scale and frequency of dangerous weather phenomena, which can cause very significant damage to farmers in a particular region. This means that it is necessary to improve the insurance system in agriculture, which, according to Kokorin, “on the one hand, is already working, on the other, it is still working with glitches.” In particular, it is necessary to establish interaction between agricultural producers, insurance companies and regional divisions of Roshydromet.

Winter temperatures in Russia may rise by 2-5 degrees by mid-century

Temperatures in winter throughout Russia may increase by the middle of the 21st century due to global change climate change by two to five degrees Celsius, warns the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“The greatest warming will affect winter... in the middle of the 21st century, an increase of 2-5 degrees is predicted throughout the country,” says the forecast of the Antistihia center for 2013. According to its experts, in most of the European territory of Russia and western Siberia, the increase in winter temperatures in the period until 2015 could amount to one or two degrees.

“The increase in summer temperatures will be less pronounced and will amount to 1-3 degrees by mid-century,” the document notes.

As previously reported, the rate of warming in Russia over 100 years is one and a half to two times faster than throughout the world, and over the past decade the rate of warming in the country has increased several times compared to the 20th century.

The climate in Russia has been warming almost twice as fast as the rest of the world for a century now.

The rate of warming in Russia over 100 years due to global climate change is one and a half to two times faster than throughout the world, warns the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

“Over the past 100 years, the average increase in temperature across Russia has been one and a half to two times higher than global warming on Earth as a whole,” says the Antistihia center’s forecast for 2013.

The document notes that in the 21st century, the bulk of Russia's territory "will be in an area of ​​more significant warming compared to global warming." “At the same time, warming will significantly depend on the time of year and the region, this will especially affect Siberia and the subarctic regions,” the forecast states.

In recent years, the number of dangerous natural phenomena and major man-made disasters is growing steadily. Emergency risks arising in the process of global climate change and economic activity pose a significant threat to the population and economic facilities of the country.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations, in areas of possible impact damaging factors During accidents at critical and potentially dangerous facilities, over 90 million Russians, or 60% of the country's population, live. Annual economic damage (direct and indirect) from emergencies of various types can reach 1.5-2% of gross domestic product - from 675 to 900 billion rubles.

Climate warming leads to more snow in Siberia

Global climate change is leading to an increase in snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere and Siberia, said Vladimir Kotlyakov, director of the Institute of Geography of the Russian Academy of Sciences, speaking at the World Snow Forum on Thursday.

“A paradox arises - with warming, which is now typical, there is more snow on Earth. This happens in large areas of Siberia, where there is more snow than there was one or two decades ago,” said Honorary President of the Russian Geographical Society Kotlyakov.

According to the geographer, scientists have been observing the trend of increasing snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1960s, when satellite observations of the distribution of snow cover began.

“Now is the era of global warming, and as the air temperature increases, the moisture content of air masses also increases, so the amount of snow falling in cold areas increases. This indicates the great sensitivity of the snow cover to any changes in the composition of the atmosphere and its circulation, and this must be remembered when assessment of any anthropogenic impacts on environment", the scientist explained.

In general, there is much more snow in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere, where its distribution is hampered by the ocean. So, in February, 19% of the area is covered with snow globe, with 31% of the area of ​​the Northern Hemisphere and 7.5% of the area of ​​the Southern Hemisphere.
“In August, snow covers only 9% of the entire globe. In the Northern Hemisphere, snow cover changes more than seven times during the year, and in the Southern Hemisphere it changes less than twice,” Kotlyakov added.

According to National Administration Oceanic and Atmospheric Research (NOAA) of the United States, in December 2012, the total area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere became the largest in more than 130 years of observation - it was almost 3 million square kilometers higher than the average and 200 thousand square kilometers higher than the 1985 record . On average, according to American meteorologists, the area of ​​snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere in winter grew at a rate of about 0.1% per decade.

European Russia will not receive bonuses from warming, scientist said

Calculations of global warming processes in the 21st century on the East European Plain and in Western Siberia indicate that climate change will not have any positive environmental and economic consequences for these regions, said Alexander Kislov, head of the department of meteorology and climatology at the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University, speaking at international conference"Problems of adaptation to climate change."

Kislov, Dean of the Faculty of Geography of Moscow State University Nikolai Kasimov and their colleagues analyzed the geographical, environmental and economic consequences of global warming on the East European Plain and Western Siberia in the 21st century using the CMIP3 model.

In particular, changes in river flow, the state of permafrost, the distribution of vegetation cover, and the characteristics of the incidence of malaria in the population were considered. In addition, it was studied how the volumes of hydropower and agroclimatic resources react to climatic processes, and how the duration of the heating season changes.

“Climate change is almost nowhere leading to positive results from an environmental and economic point of view (except for lower heating costs), at least in the short term. Significant deterioration of hydrological resources is expected in the southern part of the East European Plain,” the scientists conclude.

Moreover, the consequences of climate change are much more pronounced on the East European Plain than in Western Siberia.

“The response of individual regions to global changes is very different... each region is dominated by its own natural-ecological process caused by climate change, for example, the thawing of permafrost or desertification processes,” concluded Kislov.

The International Conference "Problems of Adaptation to Climate Change" (PAIC-2011) is held on behalf of the Government of the Russian Federation by Roshydromet with the participation of other departments, the Russian Academy of Sciences, business and public organizations with the support of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, UNESCO, World Bank and other international institutions.

The meeting, the organizing committee of which is headed by the head of Roshydromet Alexander Frolov, will be attended by the head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Rajendra Pachauri, the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Disaster Risk Reduction Margareta Wallström, WMO Secretary General Michesh Jarraud, representatives of the World Bank, UNEP, Russian and foreign climatologists and meteorologists , politicians, officials, economists and businessmen.

The duration of the fire danger period in the Russian Federation will increase by 40% until 2015.

The Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation predicts an increase in the duration of the fire hazardous period in middle lane Russia by 40%, that is, almost two months, due to global climate change.

“The duration of the fire season in the middle latitude zone of Russia may increase by 50-60 days, that is, by 30-40%, in comparison with the existing long-term average values,” Vladislav Bolov, head of the Anti-Emergency Center of the Ministry of Emergency Situations, told RIA Novosti on Friday.

According to him, this will significantly increase the threats and risks of large-scale emergency situations associated with natural fires.

“The duration of the fire hazard situation will increase most significantly in the south of the Khanty-Mansiysk Autonomous Okrug, in the Kurgan, Omsk, Novosibirsk, Kemerovo and Tomsk regions, Krasnoyarsk and Altai territories, as well as in Yakutia,” Bolov said.

At the same time, he noted that “compared to current values, the number of days with fire danger is predicted to increase to five days per season for most of the country.”

Last summer and part of the fall, large-scale wildfires burned across large parts of the country, caused by abnormal heat. In 19 federal subjects, 199 settlements were damaged, 3.2 thousand houses burned down, and 62 people died. The total damage amounted to over 12 billion rubles. This year the fire also engulfed large areas, primarily Far East and Siberia.

Forest-steppe may come to Moscow by the end of the century due to climate change

Moscow and the Moscow region, 50-100 years after the end of the current “transitional” period of warming, will be similar in climatic conditions to the forest-steppes of the Kursk and Oryol regions with dry summers and warm winters, the senior believes Researcher Department of Meteorology and Climatology, Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University Pavel Toropov.

“After the end of the transitional climate process that is currently taking place, the climate will return to its new warmer state in 50-100 years natural areas may change. According to current forecasts, climatic conditions will be closer to the landscapes and natural conditions forest-steppes, which are currently observed in Kursk and Oryol regions“Toropov said at a press conference at RIA Novosti.

According to him, Moscow and the region will not be left without snow as a result of climate warming, but there will be hot, dry summers and warmer, milder winters.

“The climate of the region will change significantly, apparently, but in the next 50 years we will not be left without snow and will not start growing apricots and peaches,” Toropov added.

Russia could lose up to 20% of grain annually due to climate change

Russia may annually lose up to 20% of its grain harvest in the next five to ten years due to global climate change on the planet and increasing aridity in the southern regions of the Union State of the Russian Federation and Belarus, according to an assessment report on the consequences of climate change for the Union State, published on the website of Roshydromet .

The report "On strategic assessments of the consequences of climate change in the next 10-20 years for natural environment and the economy of the Union State" was considered at a meeting of the Council of Ministers of the Union State on October 28, 2009.

According to Rosstat, as of December 1, 2009, the grain harvest in all categories of farms amounted to 102.7 million tons in bunker weight. This corresponds to 95.7 million tonnes by weight after processing, with an average unused grain waste share of 6.8% in 2004-2008.

The report states that the most important negative feature of expected climate change is the increase in aridity that accompanies warming processes in the southern regions of the Union State.

"The expected increase in climate aridity may lead to a decrease in yields in the main grain-producing regions of Russia (potential annual losses in grain harvest volumes, while maintaining the existing land cultivation system and the selection species used, may in some years reach 15-20% in the next five to ten years gross grain harvest), but will apparently not have a significant impact negative influence the humidified Non-Black Earth zone is sufficient for agriculture,” the report notes.

According to the report, in Belarus and a number of regions of the European territory of the Russian Federation, conditions for the growth and formation of crops of medium and late varieties of potatoes, flax, vegetable crops(cabbage), second cutting of herbs.

The document proposes to use additional heat resources to increase the share of more heat-loving and drought-resistant crops, expand stubble (mowing) crops and the volume of irrigation work, and introduce drip irrigation systems.

The permafrost boundary in the Arctic has retreated up to 80 km due to warming

The permafrost boundary in the Arctic regions of Russia has retreated up to 80 kilometers in recent decades due to global warming, which has intensified the processes of soil degradation, the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations reported on Tuesday.

The total area of ​​permafrost areas in Russia is about 10.7 million square kilometers, or about 63% of the country's territory. More than 70% of proven oil reserves are concentrated here, about 93% natural gas, significant deposits of coal, an extensive infrastructure of fuel and energy complex facilities has also been created.

“Over the past few decades, the southern border of the VM has shifted to a distance of 40 to 80 kilometers... Degradation processes (soil) have intensified - areas of seasonal thawing (taliks) and thermokarst phenomena have appeared,” says the forecast of the emergency situation in the Russian Federation for 2012 , prepared by the Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations.

The department also records changes temperature conditions top layer of permafrost over the past 40 years.

"Observational data show an almost universal increase since 1970, average annual temperature the upper layer of the VM. In the north of the European territory of Russia it was 1.2-2.4 degrees, in the north of Western Siberia - 1, Eastern Siberia- 1.3, in central Yakutia - 1.5 degrees,” the document reports.

At the same time, the Ministry of Emergency Situations notes the impact of permafrost degradation on the stability of various structures, primarily residential buildings, industrial facilities and pipelines, as well as automobile and railways, runways and power lines.

“This was one of the main prerequisites for the fact that in recent years the number of accidents and various damages to the above-mentioned objects has significantly increased on the territory of the Military District,” the forecast notes.

According to the Ministry of Emergency Situations of the Russian Federation, in the Norilsk industrial complex alone, about 250 structures suffered significant deformations, almost 40 residential buildings were demolished or planned for demolition.

At the very end of spring, a terrible natural disaster struck Moscow, which residents of the capital are unlikely to forget in the next few decades.

On May 29, squally winds knocked down several thousand trees and caused the death of eleven people.

Photo: instagram.com/allexicher

The hurricane damaged 140 residential apartment buildings and one and a half thousand cars.

Photo: twitter.com

As it turned out later, when everyone came to their senses a little, the May storm became the most severe and destructive natural disaster in Moscow in more than the last hundred years - only the tornado of 1904 was worse.

Before the Russians had time to recover from the Moscow storm, the hurricane hit a number of other regions of the country. Just a week later, on June 6 in: due to heavy rain, the rivers overflowed their banks, streets were flooded and roads and bridges were destroyed. At the same time, large hail fell in the Trans-Baikal Territory, and in the Komi Republic melt water and pouring rain they simply washed away the roads from the face of the region.

Photo: twitter.com

The worst thing is that weather forecasters promise that this is only the beginning of disasters. Hurricanes are forecast to hit all of Central Russia. At the beginning of summer, on June 2, already accustomed to bad weather Petersburg residents suffered another stress: during the day the temperature dropped to 4 degrees, and hail fell from the sky. Such cold weather in northern capital Was in last time only in 1930. And then, suddenly, after such an “extreme”, the thermometer jumped to +20 in St. Petersburg.

Photo: flickr.com

While the Russians are trying to hide from the icy hail, the Japanese are dying from the wild heat. According to Japanese media reports, over the past week, more than a thousand Japanese citizens ended up in the hospital with the same diagnosis - “heatstroke”. It's been hot in the land of the rising sun for several weeks now: thermometers show well over 40 degrees. After such an “inferno,” Japanese fire officials tell reporters, seventeen people will remain in the hospital for long-term treatment.

« The earth will fly into the celestial axis! »

So what is really going on in the world? Global warming or cooling? Or is it simply the agony of a maddened planet that cannot get rid of the “plague” of humanity? In recent decades, the most common theory has been global warming. It seems to be unconditionally confirmed by the fact that glaciers in the world are melting at a tremendous speed. They are even called the “litmus test” of climate change: after all, we don’t notice small fluctuations in the average annual temperature, but the volume of melted ice caps can be easily measured and even simply seen with the naked eye.

According to forecasts of global warming theorists, 90% of glaciers in the European Alps may disappear in the next 80 years. Moreover, due to melting arctic ice The level of the world's seas may also increase greatly. And this is fraught with flooding of some countries and serious climate changes on the planet.

Photo: flickr.com

Researchers see the cause of global warming as human activity. They point out that carbon dioxide, methane and other by-products of agricultural and industrial activity people create a greenhouse effect, which causes the temperature on the planet to rise, and ice runs into the ocean in streams.

"The winter is coming!"

At the same time, there are now more and more supporters of the theory of global cooling. The fact that in the near future we will face cold, and not excessive anthropogenic heat, is proven by scientists from the British University of Northumbria.

Global cooling, according to their version, will come as a result of external influences on the Earth’s climate, and not internal factors. The reason will be a decrease in the activity of our luminary - the Sun. British scientists with the help mathematical calculations simulated the processes occurring on the Sun and made a forecast for the coming years.

Photo: flickr.com

According to scientists' predictions, in 2022 we will experience a serious drop in temperature. At this time, the Earth will move away from its star to its maximum distance, which will lead to cooling. In five years, say scientists from the University of Northumbria, our planet will enter the “Maunder minimum”, and earthlings will have to stock up on down jackets and heaters in full.

The last time a temperature decline of the level that British researchers predict for us was observed in Europe in the 17th century. The most interesting thing is that this theory does not at all contradict the latest observations of meteorologists: its supporters associate the general increase in temperature and melting of glaciers with the fact that previously the Earth was at a minimum distance from the Sun.

Photo: flickr.com

The fact that humanity does not have that much influence on the global climate also greatly appeals to the scandalous new US leader Donald Trump. At the beginning of the summer, he announced his country's withdrawal from the Paris climate agreement. This agreement imposes restrictions on the countries that have signed it on the amount of carbon dioxide they emit into the atmosphere. Trump said that this agreement hinders the growth of industry in the United States, and this, in turn, takes jobs away from the people. But if British scientists are right, then the US leader has nothing to worry about - the “Maunder minimum” can neutralize the damage that the policies of an industrial magnate can cause to the planet.

When the planet is torn apart

Interestingly, the battle between supporters of global warming and global cooling could easily end in an equally global draw. There is a theory according to which periods of excessive heat are replaced by phases of cold in waves. This idea is promoted by the Russian scientist, head of the department of the Siberian Regional Scientific Research Hydrometeorological Institute Nikolai Zavalishin.

According to the meteorologist, short periods Global rises and falls in temperature have happened before. In general, they are cyclical in nature. As the scientist noted, each such cycle includes one decade of rapid global warming, followed by 40 to 50 years of cooling.

Photo: flickr.com

Research conducted by a Siberian meteorologist shows that the past two years - 2015 and 2016 - were the warmest in the entire history of meteorological observations. Warming should continue in the next five to six years, the scientist believes. As a result, the average air temperature will increase by 1.1 degrees.

But soon, says Nikolai Zavalishin, the warming must end. Here the Siberian agrees with the British: a phase of global cooling is coming. So, according to the Siberian theory, we still have an endless winter ahead of us.

Global warming is a myth

While most scientists blame humanity for climate change, a researcher from Siberian Institute believes that human activity does not bother the planet too much. Cycles of moderate warming and cooling, according to this version, replace each other regardless of human activity, the growth of agriculture and the scale of industry. At the same time, fluctuations average temperature on the planet are closely related to the Earth's albedo - the reflectivity of our planet.

Photo: flickr.com

The fact is that we receive all energy, in fact, from one main source - from the Sun. However, part of this energy is reflected from the earth's surface and goes into space irrevocably. The other part is absorbed and provides all living things on Earth with a happy and productive life.

But different earth surfaces absorb and reflect light differently. Pure snow is capable of returning up to 95% of solar radiation back into space, but rich black soil absorbs the same amount.

The more snow and glaciers on the planet, the more sunlight reflected. Currently, glaciers on Earth are in a phase of active melting. However, according to Zavalishin’s theory, there is no need to worry about them - when a half-century period of cooling begins, the balance will be restored.

Which scientist should you trust? There are quite a few versions of the development of events. Some researchers even promise that in thirty years, in 2047, humanity will face an apocalypse, caused by unprecedented solar activity. For now, we have only one way to verify this statement - to personally live and see.

Margarita Zvyagintseva